Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.10 · now $35.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SMTI has typically landed between $28.65 and $43.98 — a range of −18.4% to +25.3% from the issuance price $35.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,982 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SMTI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $35.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.97 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.39–$38.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.65–$43.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2007-02-20 | −82.2% | −82.2% | +0.0% |
| 2007-02-21 | −82.2% | −82.2% | +0.0% |
| 2007-02-22 | −82.2% | −82.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2007-01-10 | +800.0% | +0.0% | +800.0% |
| 2007-01-26 | +400.0% | +0.0% | +800.0% |
| 2007-01-25 | +400.0% | +0.0% | +800.0% |
4,982 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Yon Seth D | director | Withheld for tax | 3,661 | 105,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | DeSutter Robert Andrew | director | Award / grant | 5,539 | 28,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mack Roszell III | director | Award / grant | 5,308 | 21,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Major Eric D | director | Award / grant | 4,846 | 14,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Myers Keith G | director | Award / grant | 4,385 | 9,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nixon Ronald T | director | Award / grant | 4,154 | 68,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ortwein Sara N | director | Award / grant | 4,616 | 25,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Salamone Ann Beal | director | Award / grant | 4,154 | 26,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Award / grant | 5,308 | 22,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Yon Seth D | director | Withheld for tax | 3,852 | 109,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Waldrop Jacob A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 378 | 24,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-22 | Taylor Elizabeth B | officer | Award / grant | 12,687 | 17,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-22 | Yon Seth D | director | Award / grant | 25,430 | 113,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-22 | Waldrop Jacob A. | officer | Award / grant | 13,956 | 24,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-22 | Mackey Ashley M | officer | Award / grant | 2,804 | 5,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Yon Seth D | director | Withheld for tax | 596 | 87,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yon Seth D | director | Withheld for tax | 491 | 88,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Yon Seth D | director | Withheld for tax | 873 | 88,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Waldrop Jacob A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 714 | 10,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Taylor Elizabeth B | officer | Withheld for tax | 437 | 4,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mackey Ashley M | officer | Withheld for tax | 149 | 2,263 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Yon Seth D | director | Award / grant | 28,563 | 89,851 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | McNeil Michael D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,324 | 28,587 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Award / grant | 3,590 | 17,658 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Ortwein Sara N | director | Award / grant | 3,277 | 20,799 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Major Eric D | director | Award / grant | 3,277 | 9,386 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | DeSutter Robert Andrew | director | Award / grant | 3,746 | 23,201 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Mack Roszell III | director | Award / grant | 3,433 | 16,534 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Myers Keith G | director | Award / grant | 2,965 | 4,940 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Salamone Ann Beal | director | Award / grant | 2,809 | 22,704 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Yon Seth D | director | Withheld for tax | 4,929 | 61,288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-15 | Waldrop Jacob A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 378 | 11,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-10 | McNeil Michael D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 527 | 31,994 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-10 | McNeil Michael D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 362 | 30,911 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-10 | McNeil Michael D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 378 | 31,273 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-10 | McNeil Michael D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 343 | 31,651 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | McNeil Michael D. | officer | Award / grant | 1,486 | 32,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | McNeil Michael D. | officer | Award / grant | 5,037 | 31,035 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Nixon Ronald T | director | Award / grant | 7,534 | 64,042 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Taylor Elizabeth B | officer | Award / grant | 5,382 | 5,382 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.