Issued 2026-09-16 at $167.55 · now $167.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SMTC has typically landed between $125.48 and $222.24 — a range of −25.1% to +32.6% from the issuance price $167.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($167.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SMTC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $167.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $167.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $171.58 (+2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $152.04–$191.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $125.48–$222.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-01-23 | −51.7% | −51.7% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-22 | −51.2% | −51.8% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-04 | −51.2% | −51.2% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-28 | +76.2% | +0.0% | +76.2% |
| 2025-04-21 | +61.7% | +0.0% | +66.1% |
| 2026-04-10 | +60.2% | +0.0% | +60.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
−0.5%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.1%
n=20
Mar
50%
+2.0%
n=20
Apr
55%
+3.4%
n=20
May
75%
+7.6%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.5%
n=20
Jul
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Aug
55%
+3.2%
n=20
Sep
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Oct
45%
−3.4%
n=20
Nov
70%
+6.6%
n=20
Dec
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 683 @ $159.90 | $109K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,366 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $138.71 | $277K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,799 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Ruehl Julie Garcia | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $145.00 | $218K | −17.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,140 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $135.48 | $68K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $150.00 | $750K | −5.3% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $140.00 | $280K | −3.1% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,799 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $133.07 | $67K | −1.8% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $145.04 | $435K | −3.1% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $133.00 | $266K | −3.0% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,799 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 3,354 @ $129.94 | $436K | −3.3% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 2,448 @ $125.18 | $306K | −2.3% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $128.70 | $180K | −1.4% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 588 @ $127.61 | $75K | −0.6% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 437 @ $124.19 | $54K | −0.4% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,925 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 273 @ $126.60 | $35K | −0.3% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,204 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Sale | 1,132 @ $130.47 | $148K | −11.6% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Sale | 1,132 @ $129.32 | $146K | −10.4% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 970 @ $150.41 | $146K | −2.7% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,896 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Fischer Gregory Michael | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $156.24 | $234K | −20.9% of holding | −28.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 7,319 @ $152.43 | $1.1M | −10.0% of holding | −32.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,901 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 2,286 @ $152.99 | $350K | −3.5% of holding | −32.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $164.99 | $82K | −1.7% of holding | −21.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | WILSON JOHN MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $170.00 | $935K | −6.4% of holding | −22.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,876 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 683 @ $155.16 | $106K | −2.0% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $162.10 | $324K | −2.8% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $164.00 | $328K | −1.9% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Li Ye Jane | director | Sale | 5,285 @ $166.84 | $882K | −87.9% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 729 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Fischer Gregory Michael | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $164.69 | $165K | −35.0% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,857 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $138.21 | $69K | −2.1% of holding | +22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,279 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $103.01 | $206K | −2.7% of holding | +49.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $105.93 | $53K | −2.1% of holding | +37.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $90.11 | $180K | −2.7% of holding | +51.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Burvill Martin | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $88.98 | $222K | −36.2% of holding | +28.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,409 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $81.73 | $613K | −46.0% of holding | +24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,811 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 974 @ $78.42 | $76K | −2.8% of holding | +24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 9,186 @ $75.05 | $689K | −21.9% of holding | +26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,710 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $80.87 | $40K | −2.0% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,279 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 3,908 @ $87.24 | $341K | −12.8% of holding | −1.4% | +72.8% | 26,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 2,734 @ $85.27 | $233K | −8.2% of holding | +0.6% | +74.0% | 30,444 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 6,582 @ $83.75 | $551K | −22.9% of holding | +3.0% | +65.2% | 22,125 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $88.24 | $44K | −2.0% of holding | −6.4% | +31.0% | 24,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $92.00 | $920K | −12.7% of holding | −0.8% | +36.2% | 68,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $88.00 | $880K | −11.3% of holding | +3.7% | +35.7% | 78,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $83.00 | $415K | −5.3% of holding | +9.3% | +49.3% | 88,496 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $78.25 | $39K | −1.9% of holding | +7.6% | +64.7% | 25,279 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Fischer Gregory Michael | director | Sale | 1,034 @ $75.50 | $78K | −26.6% of holding | +14.2% | +72.8% | 2,857 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | WILSON JOHN MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $75.12 | $376K | −7.7% of holding | +22.3% | +73.8% | 60,066 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Gillai Saar | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $75.26 | $271K | −27.4% of holding | +13.5% | +68.8% | 9,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 1,333 @ $76.20 | $102K | −6.7% of holding | +10.4% | +64.4% | 18,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $71.61 | $36K | −1.9% of holding | +13.5% | +148.5% | 25,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 6,774 @ $79.93 | $541K | −6.8% of holding | −5.2% | +89.8% | 93,496 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Sale | 3,726 @ $79.11 | $295K | −3.6% of holding | −5.2% | +89.8% | 100,270 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | HOU HONG Q | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $74.08 | $741K | −31.7% of holding | +0.3% | +97.1% | 21,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $63.08 | $32K | −1.9% of holding | +10.1% | +129.9% | 26,279 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Sale | 500 @ $66.24 | $33K | −1.8% of holding | −1.6% | +61.1% | 26,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 536 @ $73.27 | $39K | −2.9% of holding | −8.7% | +16.3% | 17,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-03 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 386 @ $72.07 | $28K | −2.1% of holding | −8.7% | +16.3% | 18,429 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-03 | Lin Mark | officer | Sale | 49 @ $73.92 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | −8.7% | +16.3% | 17,844 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | Burvill Martin | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $62.75 | $220K | −33.6% of holding | +10.5% | +16.5% | 6,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Fischer Gregory Michael | director | Sale | 1,268 @ $58.25 | $74K | −23.5% of holding | +19.4% | +49.2% | 4,123 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
223 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | HOU HONG Q | director | Withheld for tax | 4,137 | 64,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,241 | 1,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,195 | 36,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 10,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | WILSON JOHN MICHAEL | officer | Withheld for tax | 713 | 81,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | HOU HONG Q | director | Option exercise | 8,130 | 48,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Option exercise | 2,348 | 37,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | WILSON JOHN MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 1,400 | 8,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Option exercise | 2,439 | 14,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Option exercise | 2,439 | 2,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Option exercise | 2,511 | 15,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | HOU HONG Q | director | Option exercise | 8,130 | 68,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Option exercise | 2,511 | 11,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Option exercise | 2,348 | 14,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | WILSON JOHN MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 1,400 | 82,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HOU HONG Q | director | Withheld for tax | 3,300 | 66,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Lin Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,561 | 35,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HOU HONG Q | director | Option exercise | 6,484 | 25,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Lin Mark | officer | Option exercise | 3,164 | 3,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Lin Mark | officer | Option exercise | 3,164 | 37,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HOU HONG Q | director | Option exercise | 6,484 | 70,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Gift | 38,866 | 105,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Gift | 38,866 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | HOU HONG Q | director | Withheld for tax | 4,137 | 73,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,241 | 105,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,196 | 34,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Withheld for tax | 988 | 10,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WILSON JOHN MICHAEL | officer | Withheld for tax | 713 | 86,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WILSON JOHN MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 1,400 | 87,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Option exercise | 2,510 | 17,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | HOU HONG Q | director | Option exercise | 8,129 | 56,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WILSON JOHN MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 1,400 | 9,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Green Jason Elliot | officer | Option exercise | 2,510 | 11,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Option exercise | 2,438 | 106,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Option exercise | 2,349 | 36,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Silberstein Asaf | officer | Option exercise | 2,438 | 17,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Lin Mark | officer | Option exercise | 2,349 | 16,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | HOU HONG Q | director | Option exercise | 8,129 | 77,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Walsh Paul V Jr | director | Award / grant | 1,180 | 1,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Burvill Martin | director | Award / grant | 1,180 | 1,180 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.