Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.30 · now $8.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SMR has typically landed between $5.62 and $12.81 — a range of −32.3% to +54.3% from the issuance price $8.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,427 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SMR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.25 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.14–$9.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.62–$12.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,427 windows spanning 2020-12-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-10-11 | −63.8% | −63.8% | +2.4% |
| 2023-10-12 | −61.9% | −62.0% | +7.3% |
| 2023-10-13 | −60.0% | −64.0% | +1.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-15 | +254.4% | −11.2% | +254.4% |
| 2024-02-14 | +180.4% | −9.6% | +180.4% |
| 2024-02-13 | +179.5% | −2.3% | +179.5% |
1,427 overlapping windows · 2020-12-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+8.9%
n=6
Feb
33%
−8.5%
n=6
Mar
33%
+4.3%
n=6
Apr
50%
+4.8%
n=6
May
67%
+22.0%
n=6
Jun
67%
+5.0%
n=6
Jul
67%
+8.9%
n=6
Aug
17%
−13.1%
n=6
Sep
33%
+0.1%
n=6
Oct
60%
+14.0%
n=5
Nov
20%
−4.4%
n=5
Dec
40%
−11.0%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Sale | 29,880 @ $9.39 | $281K | −19.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 124,235 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Fujino Shinji | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $8.86 | $177K | −53.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Sale | 0 @ $9.49 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Fisher Carl M. | officer | Sale | 18,771 @ $9.36 | $176K | −14.1% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,718 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $10.14 | $203K | −17.1% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 13,500,000 @ $11.81 | $159.4M | −100.0% of holding | −16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 12,936,472 @ $11.63 | $150.4M | −48.9% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,500,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 13,500,000 @ $12.07 | $162.9M | −33.8% of holding | +26.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,436,472 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Tonnel David A | officer | Sale | 2,290 @ $11.85 | $27K | −23.6% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,420 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Fisher Carl M. | officer | Sale | 35,777 @ $12.64 | $452K | −25.5% of holding | −15.0% | −36.0% | 104,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Fisher Carl M. | officer | Sale | 13,500 @ $12.64 | $171K | −12.9% of holding | −15.0% | −36.0% | 90,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Hopkins John Lawrence | director | Sale | 82,667 @ $12.22 | $1.0M | −41.4% of holding | −14.7% | −39.1% | 117,018 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Fisher Carl M. | officer | Sale | 22,197 @ $12.22 | $271K | −13.7% of holding | −14.7% | −39.1% | 140,141 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Sale | 18,570 @ $12.22 | $227K | −16.0% of holding | −14.7% | −39.1% | 97,192 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Reyes Jose N Jr | officer | Sale | 25,951 @ $12.22 | $317K | −8.8% of holding | −11.9% | −41.3% | 268,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Scott Clayton | officer | Sale | 22,478 @ $12.22 | $275K | −14.5% of holding | −11.9% | −41.3% | 132,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 463,747 @ $13.15 | $6.1M | −1.1% of holding | −15.0% | −39.4% | 39,936,472 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 71,000,000 @ $19.05 | $1.4B | −63.7% of holding | −11.5% | −49.7% | 40,400,219 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $22.17 | $887K | −46.4% of holding | −9.9% | −63.6% | 46,283 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 64,875 @ $39.42 | $2.6M | −73.8% of holding | −14.6% | −77.4% | 23,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 23,025 @ $40.03 | $922K | −100.0% of holding | −14.6% | −77.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 303,806 @ $39.51 | $12.0M | −33.4% of holding | −4.6% | −78.5% | 604,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 249,283 @ $40.61 | $10.1M | −41.2% of holding | −4.6% | −78.5% | 355,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 144,091 @ $42.65 | $6.1M | −61.7% of holding | −4.6% | −78.5% | 89,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 122,184 @ $41.35 | $5.1M | −34.4% of holding | −4.6% | −78.5% | 233,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 1,497 @ $43.13 | $65K | −1.7% of holding | −4.6% | −78.5% | 87,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 418,131 @ $42.67 | $17.8M | −30.6% of holding | −15.6% | −77.7% | 946,281 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 398,382 @ $42.02 | $16.7M | −22.6% of holding | −15.6% | −77.7% | 1,364,412 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 37,520 @ $43.62 | $1.6M | −4.0% of holding | −15.6% | −77.7% | 908,761 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-03 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 459,058 @ $40.19 | $18.4M | −19.9% of holding | −0.3% | −76.2% | 1,845,871 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 255,437 @ $39.28 | $10.0M | −10.0% of holding | −0.3% | −76.2% | 2,304,929 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 83,077 @ $40.90 | $3.4M | −4.5% of holding | −0.3% | −76.2% | 1,762,794 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 381,623 @ $38.54 | $14.7M | −12.0% of holding | +11.6% | −73.3% | 2,785,871 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 256,784 @ $37.45 | $9.6M | −7.5% of holding | +11.6% | −73.3% | 3,167,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 225,505 @ $39.33 | $8.9M | −8.1% of holding | +11.6% | −73.3% | 2,560,366 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 418,939 @ $36.70 | $15.4M | −10.9% of holding | +13.7% | −70.9% | 3,424,278 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 113,415 @ $35.86 | $4.1M | −2.9% of holding | +13.7% | −70.9% | 3,843,217 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | Reyes Jose N Jr | officer | Sale | 33,000 @ $36.50 | $1.2M | −13.0% of holding | +13.7% | −70.9% | 220,630 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 588,668 @ $36.47 | $21.5M | −12.1% of holding | +16.7% | −70.4% | 4,277,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 320,387 @ $37.17 | $11.9M | −7.5% of holding | +16.7% | −70.4% | 3,956,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 324,551 @ $38.34 | $12.4M | −5.8% of holding | +6.9% | −70.1% | 5,238,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 310,463 @ $39.36 | $12.2M | −5.9% of holding | +6.9% | −70.1% | 4,927,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 62,196 @ $40.05 | $2.5M | −1.3% of holding | +6.9% | −70.1% | 4,865,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 300,762 @ $37.71 | $11.3M | −4.9% of holding | −1.7% | −69.1% | 5,850,855 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-26 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 287,958 @ $38.25 | $11.0M | −4.9% of holding | −1.7% | −69.1% | 5,562,897 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-25 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 591,417 @ $37.77 | $22.3M | −8.6% of holding | −2.8% | −69.6% | 6,300,985 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 224,264 @ $36.82 | $8.3M | −3.2% of holding | −2.8% | −69.6% | 6,892,402 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 148,010 @ $38.57 | $5.7M | −2.3% of holding | −2.8% | −69.6% | 6,152,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 1,358 @ $39.22 | $53K | −0.0% of holding | −2.8% | −69.6% | 6,151,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 430,563 @ $40.64 | $17.5M | −5.6% of holding | −6.9% | −70.4% | 7,213,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 246,044 @ $39.74 | $9.8M | −3.1% of holding | −6.9% | −70.4% | 7,644,543 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 97,048 @ $41.74 | $4.1M | −1.3% of holding | −6.9% | −70.4% | 7,116,932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 266 @ $42.31 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | −6.9% | −70.4% | 7,116,666 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 405,133 @ $41.89 | $17.0M | −4.6% of holding | −17.3% | −71.5% | 8,467,142 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-23 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 307,188 @ $42.88 | $13.2M | −3.6% of holding | −17.3% | −71.5% | 8,159,954 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-23 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 269,367 @ $43.68 | $11.8M | −3.3% of holding | −17.3% | −71.5% | 7,890,587 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-22 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 372,380 @ $44.80 | $16.7M | −3.9% of holding | −15.4% | −73.1% | 9,266,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 346,000 @ $44.01 | $15.2M | −3.5% of holding | −15.4% | −73.1% | 9,639,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 228,434 @ $45.71 | $10.4M | −2.5% of holding | −15.4% | −73.1% | 9,038,243 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | FLUOR CORP | director | Sale | 165,868 @ $46.68 | $7.7M | −1.8% of holding | −15.4% | −73.1% | 8,872,375 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
161 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Option exercise | 76,923 | 76,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Option exercise | 76,923 | 154,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 145,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Option exercise | 0 | 97,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fisher Carl M. | officer | Option exercise | 42,625 | 133,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fisher Carl M. | officer | Option exercise | 42,625 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 117,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | BOECKMANN ALAN L | director | Award / grant | 3,681 | 92,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 165,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | KRESA KENT | director | Award / grant | 2,702 | 101,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | KRESA KENT | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 94,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | BOECKMANN ALAN L | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 85,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Chung Bum-Jin | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 51,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fujino Shinji | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 28,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Harshaw Stuart Alan | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 8,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Harshaw Stuart Alan | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 17,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Klein Dale E. | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 8,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Klein Dale E. | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 17,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Warnica Kimberly O. | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 56,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Award / grant | 8,681 | 20,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | BOECKMANN ALAN L | director | Award / grant | 3,470 | 3,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | KRESA KENT | director | Award / grant | 3,946 | 3,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Tonnel David A | officer | Option exercise | 9,710 | 19,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Tonnel David A | officer | Option exercise | 9,710 | 9,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Tonnel David A | officer | Option exercise | 9,710 | 9,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Reyes Jose N Jr | officer | Option exercise | 31,250 | 31,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Fisher Carl M. | officer | Option exercise | 52,083 | 52,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Fisher Carl M. | officer | Option exercise | 19,391 | 38,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Reyes Jose N Jr | officer | Option exercise | 26,640 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Reyes Jose N Jr | officer | Option exercise | 15,512 | 31,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hopkins John Lawrence | director | Option exercise | 56,234 | 112,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Option exercise | 44,271 | 44,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hamady Robert Ramsey | officer | Option exercise | 25,208 | 50,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hopkins John Lawrence | director | Option exercise | 39,284 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hopkins John Lawrence | director | Option exercise | 104,167 | 104,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Scott Clayton | officer | Option exercise | 19,054 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Scott Clayton | officer | Option exercise | 26,042 | 26,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Scott Clayton | officer | Option exercise | 23,269 | 46,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Reyes Jose N Jr | officer | Option exercise | 31,250 | 278,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Reyes Jose N Jr | officer | Option exercise | 15,512 | 294,032 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.