SMPL · TickerCove

SMPLThe Simply Good Foods CompanyConsumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.19 · now $10.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SMPL has typically landed between $8.65 and $11.61 — a range of −15.1% to +13.9% from the issuance price $10.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,289 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-07-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$10.19 · 2% of range

$9.83 low$27 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.2%

typical move · IQR 11.1%

−15.1%worst (p90)+13.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SMPL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $10.19 (+0.0%)
typical $9.96 (-2.2%)
middle 50% $9.4–$10.53
90% range $8.65–$11.61

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,289 windows spanning 2017-07-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−39.1%	−39.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−38.8%	−38.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−37.1%	−37.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-12-01	+43.3%	−0.8%	+43.3%
2020-06-26	+40.1%	+0.0%	+41.6%
2020-11-30	+39.7%	−0.1%	+39.7%

2,289 overlapping windows · 2017-07-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

11%

−6.9%

n=9

Feb

44%

+0.3%

n=9

Mar

44%

−3.9%

n=9

Apr

56%

+2.3%

n=9

May

22%

−3.2%

n=9

Jun

67%

+3.6%

n=9

Jul

56%

+2.2%

n=9

Aug

40%

+0.2%

n=10

Sep

30%

−2.4%

n=10

Oct

33%

−1.8%

n=9

Nov

89%

+7.8%

n=9

Dec

67%

+6.5%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-14	DALEY CLAYTON C JR	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $11.78	$118K	+9.8% of holding	+7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	111,743	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-23	KILTS JAMES M	director	Purchase	80,000 @ $12.39	$991K	+86.2% of holding	−9.8%	not yet — horizon still open	172,854	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17	Clawson Michael L	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $20.00	$100K	+15.3% of holding	−3.5%	−56.6%	37,620	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11	Matthews Timothy Allen	officer	Sale	5,859 @ $19.47	$114K	−24.5% of holding	−2.8%	−49.6%	18,065	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-06	Bealer Christopher J	officer	Purchase	9,946 @ $20.01	$199K	+43.2% of holding	−9.4%	−54.4%	32,966	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-23	Tanner Geoff E	director	Purchase	6,050 @ $33.11	$200K	+6.6% of holding	−10.1%	−45.2%	98,190	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-11	Heflin Stuart E. Jr.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $37.25	$186K	−28.0% of holding	−15.4%	−61.4%	12,839	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-22	Bealer Christopher J	officer	Award / grant	73,361	132,962	Form 4
2026-07-22	KRAFT TIMOTHY RICHARD	officer	Award / grant	88,081	147,781	Form 4
2026-05-12	WEST DAVID J	director	Gift	87,000	1,659,800	Form 4
2026-05-12	WEST DAVID J	director	Gift	261,000	1,746,800	Form 4
2026-04-16	Bealer Christopher J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,361	59,601	Form 4
2026-03-04	Held Amy C	officer	Withheld for tax	1,891	37,810	Form 4
2026-01-28	Schena Joseph J	director	Award / grant	6,500	24,957	Form 4
2026-01-28	KILTS JAMES M	director	Award / grant	6,500	92,854	Form 4
2026-01-28	Mally Romitha	director	Award / grant	6,500	10,437	Form 4
2026-01-28	DALEY CLAYTON C JR	director	Award / grant	6,500	101,743	Form 4
2026-01-28	Montgomery Robert G.	director	Award / grant	6,500	62,287	Form 4
2026-01-28	GOOLSBY MICHELLE P	director	Award / grant	6,500	40,713	Form 4
2026-01-28	WEST DAVID J	director	Award / grant	6,500	2,007,800	Form 4
2026-01-28	WHITE JAMES D	director	Award / grant	6,500	29,076	Form 4
2026-01-28	Ratzan Brian K.	director	Award / grant	6,500	2,057,609	Form 4
2026-01-28	RITTERBUSH DAVID W	director	Award / grant	6,500	26,600	Form 4
2026-01-19	SCALZO JOSEPH	director	Award / grant	2,000,000	2,000,000	Form 4
2025-11-08	Tanner Geoff E	director	Withheld for tax	6,235	154,360	Form 4
2025-11-08	KRAFT TIMOTHY RICHARD	officer	Withheld for tax	1,894	59,700	Form 4
2025-11-08	Held Amy C	officer	Withheld for tax	1,153	39,701	Form 4
2025-11-08	Heflin Stuart E. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,073	12,910	Form 4
2025-11-08	Thomas Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	780	19,859	Form 4
2025-11-08	Matthews Timothy Allen	officer	Withheld for tax	452	23,924	Form 4
2025-11-08	Thomas Ryan	officer	Award / grant	12,859	20,639	Form 4
2025-11-08	Bealer Christopher J	officer	Award / grant	28,996	61,962	Form 4
2025-11-08	KRAFT TIMOTHY RICHARD	officer	Award / grant	20,090	58,260	Form 4
2025-11-08	KRAFT TIMOTHY RICHARD	officer	Award / grant	3,334	61,594	Form 4
2025-11-08	Matthews Timothy Allen	officer	Award / grant	3,656	23,351	Form 4
2025-11-08	Matthews Timothy Allen	officer	Award / grant	1,025	24,376	Form 4
2025-11-08	Held Amy C	officer	Award / grant	14,277	40,854	Form 4
2025-11-08	Tanner Geoff E	director	Award / grant	62,405	160,595	Form 4
2025-11-08	Heflin Stuart E. Jr.	officer	Award / grant	1,472	13,983	Form 4
2025-09-06	DALEY CLAYTON C JR	director	Award / grant	1,722	95,243	Form 4
2025-09-06	GOOLSBY MICHELLE P	director	Award / grant	1,722	34,213	Form 4
2025-09-06	KILTS JAMES M	director	Award / grant	1,722	86,354	Form 4
2025-09-06	Mally Romitha	director	Award / grant	1,722	3,937	Form 4
2025-09-06	Montgomery Robert G.	director	Award / grant	1,722	55,787	Form 4
2025-09-06	Ratzan Brian K.	director	Award / grant	1,722	2,051,109	Form 4
2025-09-06	RITTERBUSH DAVID W	director	Award / grant	1,722	20,100	Form 4
2025-09-06	WHITE JAMES D	director	Award / grant	1,722	22,576	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i