SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.50 · now $37.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SMP has typically landed between $32.73 and $42.79 — a range of −12.7% to +14.1% from the issuance price $37.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SMP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$32.73worst · -12.7%$42.79best · +14.1%
  • now $37.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $37.73 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.56–$39.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.73–$42.79
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-29−59.9%−59.9%+0.0%
2008-09-26−56.5%−56.5%+7.2%
2008-09-25−54.2%−54.2%+5.5%
3 best
2009-03-12+88.1%+0.0%+99.1%
2009-04-27+87.6%+0.0%+87.6%
2009-03-11+87.1%−6.0%+87.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−2.3%
n=20
Feb
40%
−2.3%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.3%
n=20
May
55%
+2.9%
n=20
Jun
60%
+4.4%
n=20
Jul
60%
+3.1%
n=20
Aug
35%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
+1.9%
n=20
Oct
65%
+0.6%
n=20
Nov
65%
+1.9%
n=20
Dec
55%
+3.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$44$342026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $206K — Broccole Carmine Joseph2026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $226K — BURKS DALE2026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $136K — BURKS DALE2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $350K — BURKS DALE2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $231K — Nicholas Ray2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $75K — Nicholas Ray2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $346K — Nicholas Ray2025-11-11: 5 insider sales, $217K — Sills Eric, Iles Nathan R., BURKS DALE, Broccole Carmine Joseph …2025-11-10: 2 insider sales, $43K — BURKS DALE, Nicholas Ray2025-11: 7 open-market sales, $261K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $346K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $306K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $712K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $206K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Broccole Carmine Joseph — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BURKS DALE — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BURKS DALE — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed same dayofficer BURKS DALE — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Nicholas Ray — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Nicholas Ray — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Nicholas Ray — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sills Eric — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Iles Nathan R. — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BURKS DALE — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Broccole Carmine Joseph — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Nicholas Ray — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BURKS DALE — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Nicholas Ray — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Broccole Carmine JosephofficerSale5,250 @ $39.24$206K−6.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open74,537Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19BURKS DALEofficerSale5,798 @ $39.00$226K−10.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open47,657Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18BURKS DALEofficerSale3,500 @ $38.76$136K−6.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open53,455Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-14BURKS DALEofficerSale9,051 @ $38.71$350K−13.7% of holding−1.1%not yet — horizon still open56,955Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-08Nicholas RayofficerSale5,822 @ $39.75$231K−14.1% of holding−7.9%not yet — horizon still open35,327Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Nicholas RayofficerSale1,950 @ $38.28$75K−4.5% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open41,149Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Nicholas RayofficerSale9,093 @ $38.01$346K−18.3% of holding−0.1%−7.2%40,609Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Sills EricdirectorSale1,531 @ $38.26$59K−0.9% of holding+0.2%−8.3%178,432Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Iles Nathan R.officerSale1,356 @ $38.30$52K−3.5% of holding+0.2%−8.3%37,468Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11BURKS DALEofficerSale1,180 @ $38.30$45K−1.9% of holding+0.2%−8.3%60,216Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Broccole Carmine JosephofficerSale1,148 @ $38.31$44K−1.4% of holding+0.2%−8.3%83,367Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Nicholas RayofficerSale457 @ $38.36$18K−0.9% of holding+0.2%−8.3%49,702Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10BURKS DALEofficerSale1,002 @ $38.41$38K−1.6% of holding−0.2%−7.2%61,396Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10Nicholas RayofficerSale128 @ $38.19$5K−0.3% of holding−0.2%−7.2%50,159Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11BURKS DALEofficerSale11,005 @ $27.20$299K−16.2% of holding−13.0%+30.4%56,860Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09Nicholas RayofficerSale4,730 @ $34.11$161K−9.3% of holding−8.8%−7.1%46,385Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

36 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01Bhandari SunilofficerAward / grant19,38019,380Form 4
2026-05-21Lieberman Pamela ForbesdirectorAward / grant3,32159,957Form 4
2026-05-21Norris Alisa C.directorAward / grant3,32132,798Form 4
2026-05-21Capparelli Alejandro C.directorAward / grant3,32118,115Form 4
2026-05-21McClymont PatrickdirectorAward / grant3,32130,919Form 4
2026-05-21Puryear PameladirectorAward / grant3,32116,887Form 4
2026-05-21McDonnell Joseph W.directorAward / grant3,32139,498Form 4
2026-03-04Sills EricdirectorAward / grant6,048184,480Form 4
2026-03-01Broccole Carmine JosephofficerWithheld for tax1,11881,603Form 4
2026-02-24Broccole Carmine JosephofficerWithheld for tax3,65782,721Form 4
2026-02-24BURKE JAMES JdirectorAward / grant57979,311Form 4
2026-02-24BURKS DALEofficerAward / grant5,79066,006Form 4
2026-02-24Iles Nathan R.officerAward / grant7,52744,995Form 4
2026-02-24Nicholas RayofficerAward / grant2,49043,099Form 4
2026-02-24Ringwood Victoria T.officerAward / grant3,4743,474Form 4
2026-02-24Broccole Carmine JosephofficerAward / grant3,01186,378Form 4
2025-11-10Iles Nathan R.officerAward / grant1,01438,824Form 4
2025-11-10Broccole Carmine JosephofficerAward / grant76184,515Form 4
2025-11-10Sills EricdirectorAward / grant1,014179,963Form 4
2025-11-10BURKS DALEofficerAward / grant1,01462,398Form 4
2025-11-10BURKE JAMES JdirectorAward / grant1,01478,732Form 4
2025-11-10Nicholas RayofficerAward / grant63450,287Form 4
2025-10-29BURKS DALEofficerAward / grant4,52461,384Form 4
2025-10-29BURKE JAMES JdirectorAward / grant2,01177,718Form 4
2025-10-29Sills EricdirectorAward / grant3,298178,949Form 4
2025-10-29Nicholas RayofficerAward / grant3,26849,653Form 4
2025-10-29Broccole Carmine JosephofficerAward / grant2,51383,754Form 4
2025-10-29Iles Nathan R.officerAward / grant8,79537,810Form 4
2025-07-02Sills EricdirectorGift15,500191,094Form 4
2025-07-02Sills EricdirectorGift7,750258,156Form 4
2025-05-15Norris Alisa C.directorAward / grant4,23029,477Form 4
2025-05-15McDonnell Joseph W.directorAward / grant4,23036,177Form 4
2025-05-15Puryear PameladirectorAward / grant4,23013,566Form 4
2025-05-15Lieberman Pamela ForbesdirectorAward / grant4,23056,636Form 4
2025-05-15Capparelli Alejandro C.directorAward / grant4,23014,794Form 4
2025-05-15McClymont PatrickdirectorAward / grant4,23027,598Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.