SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro CompanyBasic Materials · Agricultural Inputsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $54.79 · now $54.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SMG has typically landed between $44.36 and $65.98 — a range of −19.0% to +20.4% from the issuance price $54.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($54.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SMG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $54.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.36worst · -19.0%$65.98best · +20.4%
  • now $54.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $53.8 (-1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $49.01–$58.59
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.36–$65.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-06-03−39.0%−39.0%+0.0%
2008-06-04−38.6%−39.0%+0.0%
2008-05-30−37.7%−37.7%+0.0%
3 best
2023-01-03+68.0%+0.0%+68.0%
2022-12-30+65.7%+0.0%+65.7%
2020-03-23+54.8%+0.0%+54.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+5.0%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Mar
50%
+1.9%
n=20
Apr
40%
−0.5%
n=20
May
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Jun
35%
−3.4%
n=20
Jul
60%
+4.5%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.9%
n=20
Oct
65%
+1.8%
n=20
Nov
60%
+4.0%
n=20
Dec
70%
+1.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$73$512026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $51K — Kingdon Mark D2026-08-03: 2 insider sales, $2.0M — Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. …2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $80K — Johnson Stephen L2026-02-24: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Scheiwer Mark J2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $3.3M — Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.2025-09-05: 3 insider sales, $3.6M — Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. …2025-09-03: 1 insider purchase, $110K — Scheiwer Mark J2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $4.4M2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $110K2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $3.6M2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $50K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $3.3M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $80K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $2.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kingdon Mark D — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Johnson Stephen L — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Scheiwer Mark J — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Scheiwer Mark J — Purchase on 2025-09-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Kingdon Mark DdirectorSale831 @ $61.65$51K−7.1% of holding−7.2%not yet — horizon still open10,827Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.directorSale28,793 @ $67.42$1.9M−0.2% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open13,138,848Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.directorSale1,207 @ $68.16$82K−0.0% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open13,137,641Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-30Johnson Stephen LdirectorSale1,171 @ $68.32$80K−3.7% of holding−15.3%not yet — horizon still open30,179Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Scheiwer Mark JofficerPurchase693 @ $71.44$50K+4.7% of holding+0.1%−22.2%15,370Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.directorSale50,000 @ $66.40$3.3M−0.4% of holding−4.2%−21.4%13,167,641Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.directorSale41,979 @ $62.73$2.6M−0.3% of holding−13.0%−1.1%13,232,295Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-05Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.directorSale11,806 @ $63.69$752K−0.1% of holding−13.0%−1.1%13,220,489Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-05Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.directorSale2,848 @ $64.52$184K−0.0% of holding−13.0%−1.1%13,217,641Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-03Scheiwer Mark JofficerPurchase1,790 @ $61.32$110K+21.5% of holding−7.3%+5.7%10,130Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

290 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-05Baxter Nathan EricdirectorWithheld for tax12,02378,443Form 4
2026-09-04Scheiwer Mark JofficerAward / grant161,436Form 4
2026-09-04Kingdon Mark DdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Evans David CdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04HAGEDORN KATHERINE LITTLEFIELDdirectorAward / grant37108Form 4
2026-09-04Miaritis NickdirectorAward / grant72340Form 4
2026-09-04Miller Austin ScottdirectorAward / grant53189Form 4
2026-09-04Kingdon Mark DdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Aviles EdithdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Candelino RobertodirectorAward / grant77374Form 4
2026-09-04Evans David CdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04HAGEDORN KATHERINE LITTLEFIELDdirectorAward / grant37108Form 4
2026-09-04Hanft AdamdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Johnson Stephen LdirectorAward / grant1551,063Form 4
2026-09-04Miaritis NickdirectorAward / grant72340Form 4
2026-09-04Miller Austin ScottdirectorAward / grant53189Form 4
2026-09-04HAGEDORN KATHERINE LITTLEFIELDdirectorAward / grant37108Form 4
2026-09-04Scheiwer Mark JofficerAward / grant47500Form 4
2026-09-04Miller Austin ScottdirectorAward / grant53189Form 4
2026-09-04Evans David CdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Hanft AdamdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Johnson Stephen LdirectorAward / grant1551,063Form 4
2026-09-04Shumlin Peter EdirectorAward / grant1701,188Form 4
2026-09-04Sandoval Brian EdirectorAward / grant1791,143Form 4
2026-09-04Aviles EdithdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Kingdon Mark DdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Candelino RobertodirectorAward / grant77374Form 4
2026-09-04Miaritis NickdirectorAward / grant72340Form 4
2026-09-04Sandoval Brian EdirectorAward / grant1791,143Form 4
2026-09-04Scheiwer Mark JofficerAward / grant47500Form 4
2026-09-04Shumlin Peter EdirectorAward / grant1701,188Form 4
2026-09-04Johnson Stephen LdirectorAward / grant1551,063Form 4
2026-09-04Hanft AdamdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04HAGEDORN KATHERINE LITTLEFIELDdirectorAward / grant37108Form 4
2026-09-04Candelino RobertodirectorAward / grant77374Form 4
2026-09-04Aviles EdithdirectorAward / grant118791Form 4
2026-09-04Sandoval Brian EdirectorAward / grant1791,143Form 4
2026-09-04Scheiwer Mark JofficerAward / grant47500Form 4
2026-09-04Miaritis NickdirectorAward / grant72340Form 4
2026-09-04Candelino RobertodirectorAward / grant77374Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.