SMFGSumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.29 · now $26.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SMFG has typically landed between $23.94 and $30.03 — a range of −8.9% to +14.2% from the issuance price $26.29.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SMFG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$23.94worst · -8.9%$30.03best · +14.2%
  • now $26.29 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27 (+2.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.74–$28.27
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.94–$30.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-30−48.8%−48.8%+1.2%
2008-10-22−42.2%−42.2%+6.5%
2008-10-21−41.4%−41.4%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+59.3%+0.0%+59.3%
2009-04-09+45.2%+0.0%+47.2%
2008-11-19+43.7%−8.4%+43.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+2.8%
n=20
Feb
40%
−0.1%
n=20
Mar
40%
−2.4%
n=20
Apr
45%
+2.3%
n=20
May
60%
+1.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Aug
20%
−3.0%
n=20
Sep
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
−1.0%
n=20
Nov
60%
+2.4%
n=20
Dec
55%
+2.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$152026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $170K — Anchi Kazuyuki2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $170K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Anchi Kazuyuki — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12Anchi KazuyukidirectorSale4,000 @ $42.47$170K−7.6% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open48,857Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-27Nakashima TorudirectorDisposition8,900162,464Form 4
2026-07-27Takashima MakotodirectorDisposition7,100251,600Form 4
2026-07-27Matsugasaki HonamidirectorDisposition4,10034,202Form 4
2026-07-27Kudo TeikodirectorDisposition3,800115,282Form 4
2026-07-27Mikami TakeshidirectorDisposition3,500129,172Form 4
2026-07-27Hyakutome YoshihiroofficerDisposition3,500109,727Form 4
2026-07-27Nakamura KeiichiroofficerDisposition3,30099,928Form 4
2026-07-27Isowa AkioofficerDisposition3,30081,603Form 4
2026-07-27Ito FumihikoofficerDisposition3,30089,752Form 4
2026-07-27Kobayashi TakashiofficerDisposition3,30091,989Form 4
2026-07-27Mabuchi YukihiroofficerDisposition2,80075,487Form 4
2026-07-27Samejima NatsuhiroofficerDisposition2,80072,384Form 4
2026-07-27Nagata ArihiroofficerDisposition2,60055,134Form 4
2026-07-27Uemura AkioofficerDisposition2,60066,498Form 4
2026-07-27Anchi KazuyukidirectorDisposition2,60052,857Form 4
2026-07-27Yoshikawa HaruyukiofficerDisposition2,30052,982Form 4
2026-07-27Takamatsu HidekiofficerDisposition2,10059,115Form 4
2026-07-27Takamatsu HidekiofficerAward / grant12,54961,215Form 4
2026-07-27Anchi KazuyukidirectorAward / grant15,24955,457Form 4
2026-07-27Hyakutome YoshihiroofficerAward / grant20,748113,227Form 4
2026-07-27Isowa AkioofficerAward / grant19,29684,903Form 4
2026-07-27Ito FumihikoofficerAward / grant19,29693,052Form 4
2026-07-27Kobayashi TakashiofficerAward / grant19,29695,289Form 4
2026-07-27Kudo TeikodirectorAward / grant22,098119,082Form 4
2026-07-27Mabuchi YukihiroofficerAward / grant16,59678,287Form 4
2026-07-27Matsugasaki HonamidirectorAward / grant8,37238,302Form 4
2026-07-27Mikami TakeshidirectorAward / grant20,748132,672Form 4
2026-07-27Nagata ArihiroofficerAward / grant15,24957,734Form 4
2026-07-27Nakamura KeiichiroofficerAward / grant19,296103,228Form 4
2026-07-27Nakashima TorudirectorAward / grant51,399171,364Form 4
2026-07-27Takashima MakotodirectorAward / grant41,166258,700Form 4
2026-07-27Nakashima TorudirectorAward / grant51,399171,364Form 4
2026-07-27Kudo TeikodirectorAward / grant22,098119,082Form 4
2026-07-27Anchi KazuyukidirectorAward / grant15,24955,457Form 4
2026-07-27Mikami TakeshidirectorAward / grant20,748132,672Form 4
2026-07-27Matsugasaki HonamidirectorAward / grant8,37238,302Form 4
2026-07-27Hyakutome YoshihiroofficerAward / grant20,748113,227Form 4
2026-07-27Nakamura KeiichiroofficerAward / grant19,296103,228Form 4
2026-07-27Isowa AkioofficerAward / grant19,29684,903Form 4
2026-07-27Ito FumihikoofficerAward / grant19,29693,052Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.