SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.Technology · Computer Hardwareas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $43.26 · now $43.26 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SMCI has typically landed between $30.38 and $66.74 — a range of −29.8% to +54.3% from the issuance price $43.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($43.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SMCI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $43.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$30.38worst · -29.8%$66.74best · +54.3%
  • now $43.26 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $44.56 (+3.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.65–$51.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.38–$66.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-10-16−63.1%−63.1%+0.8%
2024-10-17−61.0%−62.2%+3.2%
2024-10-15−57.4%−57.4%+2.8%
3 best
2024-01-17+215.5%−2.1%+215.5%
2024-01-16+169.9%−4.6%+169.9%
2024-01-18+158.0%+0.0%+222.4%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$19.5B
market cap
$1.89
EPS (TTM)
15.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$22.0B
'20'25
Net income$1.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr16.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.76
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $43.26$-65.69$74.30
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-56.04
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$64.65
  • Analyst target · range $36.00–$46.00$44.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$43.26

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+10.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+8.9%
n=19
Mar
47%
−1.0%
n=19
Apr
47%
−1.6%
n=19
May
58%
+14.9%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
−3.1%
n=19
Sep
53%
+1.4%
n=19
Oct
50%
−4.6%
n=18
Nov
72%
+6.2%
n=18
Dec
67%
+4.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$59$212026-09-04: 2 insider sales, $8.0M — Liang Charles, Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara2026-09-03: 4 insider sales, $7.4M — Liang Charles, Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara …2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.8M2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $2.1M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $3.5M2026-09: 6 open-market sales, $15.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Liang Charles — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Liang Charles — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Liang Charles — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Liang CharlesdirectorSale100,000 @ $40.00$4.0M−18.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open437,506Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-04Liu Liang Chiu-Chu SaradirectorSale100,000 @ $40.00$4.0M−18.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open437,506Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-03Liang CharlesdirectorSale57,435 @ $37.62$2.2M−9.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open537,506Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Liu Liang Chiu-Chu SaradirectorSale57,435 @ $37.62$2.2M−9.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open537,506Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Liu Liang Chiu-Chu SaradirectorSale42,565 @ $36.60$1.6M−6.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open594,941Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Liang CharlesdirectorSale42,565 @ $36.60$1.6M−6.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open594,941Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

294 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27Xiao JinofficerAward / grant2,1122,112Form 4
2026-08-27WEIGAND DAVID EofficerAward / grant24,09324,093Form 4
2026-08-27Malyala VikranthofficerAward / grant8,0608,060Form 4
2026-08-17WEIGAND DAVID EofficerWithheld for tax3,308134,730Form 4
2026-08-17Malyala VikranthofficerWithheld for tax3,05347,877Form 4
2026-08-17Liang CharlesdirectorWithheld for tax1,970637,506Form 4
2026-08-17Liu Liang Chiu-Chu SaradirectorWithheld for tax1,970637,506Form 4
2026-08-17Xiao JinofficerWithheld for tax1,436194,586Form 4
2026-08-17Thauberger MatthewofficerWithheld for tax1,1456,487Form 4
2026-08-17Cheung KennethofficerWithheld for tax80863,772Form 4
2026-08-17WEIGAND DAVID EofficerOption exercise6,5000Form 4
2026-08-17Malyala VikranthofficerOption exercise6,0000Form 4
2026-08-17Liang CharlesdirectorOption exercise3,6500Form 4
2026-08-17Xiao JinofficerOption exercise4,0000Form 4
2026-08-17Cheung KennethofficerOption exercise2,2500Form 4
2026-08-17Liu Liang Chiu-Chu SaradirectorOption exercise3,6500Form 4
2026-08-17Thauberger MatthewofficerOption exercise2,2500Form 4
2026-08-17Xiao JinofficerOption exercise4,000196,022Form 4
2026-08-17Liang CharlesdirectorOption exercise3,650639,476Form 4
2026-08-17Liu Liang Chiu-Chu SaradirectorOption exercise3,650639,476Form 4
2026-08-17Malyala VikranthofficerOption exercise6,00050,930Form 4
2026-08-17Cheung KennethofficerOption exercise2,25064,580Form 4
2026-08-17Liang CharlesdirectorOption exercise3,650639,476Form 4
2026-08-17WEIGAND DAVID EofficerOption exercise6,500138,038Form 4
2026-08-17WEIGAND DAVID EofficerOption exercise6,500138,038Form 4
2026-08-17Xiao JinofficerOption exercise4,000196,022Form 4
2026-08-17Thauberger MatthewofficerOption exercise2,2507,632Form 4
2026-08-17Thauberger MatthewofficerOption exercise2,2507,632Form 4
2026-08-17Liu Liang Chiu-Chu SaradirectorOption exercise3,650639,476Form 4
2026-08-17Malyala VikranthofficerOption exercise6,00050,930Form 4
2026-08-17Malyala VikranthofficerOption exercise6,00050,930Form 4
2026-08-17WEIGAND DAVID EofficerOption exercise6,500138,038Form 4
2026-08-17Liu Liang Chiu-Chu SaradirectorOption exercise3,650639,476Form 4
2026-08-17Liang CharlesdirectorOption exercise3,650639,476Form 4
2026-08-17WEIGAND DAVID EofficerOption exercise6,500138,038Form 4
2026-08-17Thauberger MatthewofficerOption exercise2,2507,632Form 4
2026-08-17Thauberger MatthewofficerOption exercise2,2507,632Form 4
2026-08-17Malyala VikranthofficerOption exercise6,00050,930Form 4
2026-08-17Cheung KennethofficerOption exercise2,25064,580Form 4
2026-08-17Xiao JinofficerOption exercise4,000196,022Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
John BoozmanSenatesale2026-01-132025-12-31$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-01-132025-12-11$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-10-102025-09-05$1–15K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-06-132025-05-02$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-30$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Ashley B. MoodySenatepurchase2025-04-202025-03-25$100–250K
Ashley B. MoodySenatesale2025-04-202025-03-24$15–50K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-03-272025-02-25$1–15K
Ashley B. MoodySenatesale2025-03-222025-02-24$15–50K
Ashley B. MoodySenatesale2025-03-222025-02-24$50–100K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-02-132025-01-13$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.