SM · TickerCove

SMSM Energy CompanyEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.16 · now $38.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SM has typically landed between $30.32 and $47.38 — a range of −20.6% to +24.2% from the issuance price $38.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$38.16 · 87% of range

$17.3 low$41.29 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 19.3%

−20.6%worst (p90)+24.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $38.16 (+0.0%)
typical $38.76 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $35.08–$42.43
90% range $30.32–$47.38

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−75.8%	−75.8%	+6.1%
2020-02-20	−72.1%	−76.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−70.0%	−77.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-30	+263.4%	−8.3%	+263.4%
2020-04-01	+248.9%	+0.0%	+296.4%
2020-10-28	+224.4%	+0.0%	+234.6%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

+0.4%

n=20

Feb

50%

−0.8%

n=20

Mar

60%

+6.0%

n=20

Apr

55%

+18.2%

n=20

May

55%

+0.8%

n=20

Jun

40%

+0.0%

n=20

Jul

60%

−0.6%

n=20

Aug

60%

+3.0%

n=20

Sep

50%

−0.1%

n=20

Oct

65%

+2.4%

n=20

Nov

30%

+4.4%

n=20

Dec

45%

−0.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	Venkatraman Ashwin	director	Sale	3,650 @ $38.28	$140K	−22.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,525	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Sale	17,500 @ $37.02	$648K	−54.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	14,705	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-21	PERU RAMIRO G	director	Sale	24,553 @ $33.98	$834K	−27.1% of holding	−16.0%	not yet — horizon still open	65,964	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-17	Jenkins Richard A.	officer	Sale	7,726 @ $28.49	$220K	−24.6% of holding	−12.0%	−47.7%	23,668	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06	Vogel Herbert S	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $21.32	$21K	+0.2% of holding	+5.4%	−33.2%	488,101	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04	PERU RAMIRO G	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $28.72	$144K	+6.4% of holding	+7.6%	−14.3%	82,535	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Vogel Herbert S	director	Purchase	500 @ $29.67	$15K	+0.1% of holding	+2.8%	−12.2%	487,101	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-26	BROOKMAN BARTON R JR	director	Purchase	7,000 @ $32.36	$227K	+91.3% of holding	−2.2%	−21.4%	14,666	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25	Vogel Herbert S	director	Purchase	500 @ $33.66	$17K	+0.1% of holding	−2.9%	−24.7%	486,601	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Vogel Herbert S	director	Purchase	500 @ $33.98	$17K	+0.1% of holding	−6.4%	−23.0%	486,101	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

230 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	PURSELL A WADE	officer	Gift	5,000	426,531	Form 4
2026-07-24	PURSELL A WADE	officer	Withheld for tax	7,403	431,531	Form 4
2026-07-24	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Withheld for tax	3,291	32,205	Form 4
2026-07-24	McKenna Blake Douglas	officer	Award / grant	46,639	46,639	Form 4
2026-07-24	McDonald Elizabeth Anne	officer	Award / grant	90,168	90,168	Form 4
2026-07-24	PURSELL A WADE	officer	Award / grant	54,412	54,412	Form 4
2026-07-24	Bennett Alan D	officer	Award / grant	7,288	7,288	Form 4
2026-07-24	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Award / grant	42,752	42,752	Form 4
2026-07-24	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Option exercise	7,520	35,496	Form 4
2026-07-24	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Option exercise	7,520	35,496	Form 4
2026-07-24	PURSELL A WADE	officer	Option exercise	16,917	438,934	Form 4
2026-07-24	PURSELL A WADE	officer	Option exercise	16,917	438,934	Form 4
2026-07-01	McDonald Elizabeth Anne	officer	Withheld for tax	6,440	21,401	Form 4
2026-07-01	PURSELL A WADE	officer	Withheld for tax	5,800	422,017	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Withheld for tax	4,761	27,976	Form 4
2026-07-01	McDonald Elizabeth Anne	officer	Withheld for tax	4,240	13,121	Form 4
2026-07-01	PURSELL A WADE	officer	Withheld for tax	4,176	411,817	Form 4
2026-07-01	PURSELL A WADE	officer	Withheld for tax	3,705	406,450	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Withheld for tax	2,673	21,857	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Withheld for tax	2,306	18,422	Form 4
2026-07-01	McKenna Blake Douglas	officer	Withheld for tax	1,196	2,964	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Withheld for tax	802	3,686	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Withheld for tax	396	2,203	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Withheld for tax	264	2,569	Form 4
2026-07-01	McDonald Elizabeth Anne	officer	Option exercise	14,720	27,841	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Option exercise	948	2,599	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Option exercise	630	2,833	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Option exercise	1,919	4,488	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Option exercise	948	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Option exercise	630	631	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bennett Alan D	officer	Option exercise	1,919	3,841	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Option exercise	5,269	20,728	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Option exercise	6,108	24,530	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Option exercise	10,880	32,737	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Option exercise	5,269	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Option exercise	6,108	6,108	Form 4
2026-07-01	Lebeck James Barker	officer	Option exercise	10,880	21,762	Form 4
2026-07-01	McDonald Elizabeth Anne	officer	Option exercise	9,690	17,361	Form 4
2026-07-01	McDonald Elizabeth Anne	officer	Option exercise	9,690	9,690	Form 4
2026-07-01	McDonald Elizabeth Anne	officer	Option exercise	14,720	29,443	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i