SLMSLM Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.28 · now $25.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SLM has typically landed between $21.83 and $29.36 — a range of −13.6% to +16.1% from the issuance price $25.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SLM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$21.83worst · -13.6%$29.36best · +16.1%
  • now $25.28 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.59 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.15–$27.02
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.83–$29.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−69.8%−69.8%+0.0%
2009-01-30−67.2%−67.2%+2.1%
2009-01-29−66.5%−66.5%+4.4%
3 best
2009-03-09+75.9%+0.0%+75.9%
2009-03-11+70.5%−9.8%+70.5%
2009-03-06+69.3%−2.6%+69.3%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+5.4%
n=18
Feb
63%
−3.2%
n=19
Mar
58%
−0.3%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.7%
n=19
May
58%
+3.0%
n=19
Jun
47%
+2.2%
n=19
Jul
32%
−0.9%
n=19
Aug
26%
−2.4%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.7%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.6%
n=18
Nov
67%
+6.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+3.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$32$19↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-07-29Palmer Kerri A.officerSale55,000 @ $32.21$1.8M−31.6% of holding−3.4%−27.6%119,253Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-28Pahwa MunishofficerSale10,000 @ $34.08$341K−12.4% of holding−6.2%−28.2%70,836Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-02Strong Robert S.directorSale3,000 @ $31.15$93K−7.9% of holding−0.4%−34.2%35,195Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-21Palmer Kerri A.officerSale25,000 @ $31.90$798K−16.0% of holding+3.6%−3.9%131,484Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-19VIEIRA DONNA FdirectorSale13,717 @ $32.52$446K−9.1% of holding−0.0%−9.7%136,579Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Strong Robert S.directorSale5,000 @ $29.48$147K−11.6% of holding+6.3%+5.2%38,163Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11Manvitz TeddirectorPurchase10,000 @ $28.90$289K+21.5% of holding+6.7%+7.4%56,464Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28Strong Robert S.directorSale40,000 @ $28.57$1.1M−48.1% of holding+8.6%+6.7%43,163Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

121 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-17Blackley Richard ScottdirectorAward / grant1,19841,619Form 4
2026-06-17GREIG HENRY FdirectorAward / grant1,08916,929Form 4
2026-06-17Manvitz TeddirectorAward / grant1,06276,041Form 4
2026-06-16Greenstein DanieldirectorAward / grant7,34912,747Form 4
2026-06-16Lavelle Mark LdirectorAward / grant7,34985,764Form 4
2026-06-16Blackley Richard ScottdirectorAward / grant7,34940,421Form 4
2026-06-16Leech Christopher T.directorAward / grant7,34919,946Form 4
2026-06-16MILLERCHIP GARYdirectorAward / grant7,34912,747Form 4
2026-06-16Manvitz TeddirectorAward / grant7,34974,979Form 4
2026-06-16Matheson James D.directorAward / grant7,349111,837Form 4
2026-06-16Schneck-Last Vivian C.directorAward / grant7,34998,945Form 4
2026-06-16Wolberg Kirsten O.directorAward / grant7,34981,690Form 4
2026-06-16Franke Mary Carter WarrendirectorAward / grant7,349104,998Form 4
2026-06-16GREIG HENRY FdirectorAward / grant7,34915,840Form 4
2026-06-16Akella JanakidirectorAward / grant7,34919,946Form 4
2026-05-01Jafarieh NicolasofficerGift1,098285,355Form 4
2026-05-01Jafarieh NicolasofficerGift4,390280,965Form 4
2026-04-01Turner Steven AllenofficerAward / grant58,87784,219Form 4
2026-03-18Blackley Richard ScottdirectorAward / grant1,40233,040Form 4
2026-03-18GREIG HENRY FdirectorAward / grant1,2748,459Form 4
2026-03-18Manvitz TeddirectorAward / grant1,24267,599Form 4
2026-03-12Blackley Richard ScottdirectorGift11,70231,604Form 4
2026-03-03Witter Jonathan W.directorWithheld for tax18,4111,423,878Form 4
2026-03-03Graham Peter MdirectorWithheld for tax4,708152,338Form 4
2026-03-03Palmer Kerri A.officerWithheld for tax3,596169,037Form 4
2026-03-03Jafarieh NicolasofficerWithheld for tax2,874285,987Form 4
2026-03-03Pahwa MunishofficerWithheld for tax2,33284,743Form 4
2026-03-02Turner Steven AllenofficerAward / grant25,05225,052Form 4
2026-03-02Palmer Kerri A.officerAward / grant43,512172,633Form 4
2026-03-02Pahwa MunishofficerAward / grant23,07487,075Form 4
2026-03-02Jafarieh NicolasofficerAward / grant51,424288,861Form 4
2026-03-02Witter Jonathan W.directorAward / grant165,1471,442,289Form 4
2026-03-02Graham Peter MdirectorAward / grant49,314157,046Form 4
2026-02-24Witter Jonathan W.directorWithheld for tax169,4331,277,142Form 4
2026-02-24Jafarieh NicolasofficerWithheld for tax27,792237,437Form 4
2026-02-24Palmer Kerri A.officerWithheld for tax22,387129,121Form 4
2026-02-24Jafarieh NicolasofficerAward / grant58,880265,229Form 4
2026-02-24Witter Jonathan W.directorAward / grant338,1881,446,575Form 4
2026-02-24Palmer Kerri A.officerAward / grant49,637151,508Form 4
2026-02-17Witter Jonathan W.directorWithheld for tax35,5041,108,387Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Thad CochranSenatesale2017-06-072017-05-25$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatesale2017-01-122016-12-14$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatesale2017-01-122016-12-12$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatepurchase2016-07-072016-06-21$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatepurchase2016-07-072016-06-03$1–15K
Thomas MacarthurHousesale2016-03-032016-02-01$15–50K
Thomas MacarthurHousepurchase2016-02-062016-01-19$1–15K
Thomas MacarthurHousesale2016-01-062015-12-16$15–50K
Thomas MacarthurHousepurchase2015-11-032015-10-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.