Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.67 · now $25.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SLDE has typically landed between $21.42 and $30.98 — a range of −16.6% to +20.7% from the issuance price $25.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
292 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-06-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SLDE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $25.67 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.35 (+2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.12–$28.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.42–$30.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 292 windows spanning 2025-06-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-07-28 | −34.0% | −34.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-07-30 | −30.7% | −33.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-07-25 | −30.6% | −30.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-04 | +29.6% | +0.0% | +32.6% |
| 2026-06-03 | +29.5% | −1.0% | +31.3% |
| 2026-06-09 | +27.1% | −0.8% | +27.2% |
292 overlapping windows · 2025-06-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−11.6%
n=1
Feb
100%
+10.3%
n=1
Mar
0%
−5.3%
n=1
Apr
100%
+3.6%
n=1
May
0%
−3.3%
n=1
Jun
100%
+7.4%
n=1
Jul
50%
−5.1%
n=2
Aug
50%
−6.2%
n=2
Sep
100%
+14.2%
n=2
Oct
100%
+1.3%
n=1
Nov
100%
+5.6%
n=1
Dec
100%
+15.3%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 11,374 @ $26.00 | $296K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $26.40 | $198K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Omiridis Anastasios | officer | Sale | 330 @ $26.23 | $9K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Gries Robert JR | director | Sale | 61,762 @ $24.28 | $1.5M | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,523,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Gries Robert JR | director | Sale | 107,510 @ $24.44 | $2.6M | −6.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,585,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 11,374 @ $24.62 | $280K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | POWELL CHARLES WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 2,080 @ $25.00 | $52K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $21.89 | $109K | −100.0% of holding | +23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $21.00 | $105K | −100.0% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Gries Robert JR | director | Sale | 28,212 @ $20.44 | $577K | −1.6% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,692,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gries Robert JR | director | Sale | 28,212 @ $20.33 | $574K | −1.6% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,720,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $20.00 | $100K | −100.0% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Gries Robert JR | director | Sale | 28,212 @ $21.04 | $594K | −1.6% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,749,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Gries Robert JR | director | Sale | 84,636 @ $20.34 | $1.7M | −4.5% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,777,357 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Wright Andrew Pardo | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $19.51 | $293K | −44.1% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Wright Andrew Pardo | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $19.03 | $285K | −30.6% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,998 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-24 | Wright Andrew Pardo | director | Sale | 31,002 @ $18.01 | $558K | −38.8% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 44,467 @ $17.12 | $761K | −0.1% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,506,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 4,659 @ $17.12 | $80K | −0.4% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,118,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 192,695 @ $17.03 | $3.3M | −0.6% of holding | +21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,550,666 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 19,058 @ $17.03 | $325K | −1.7% of holding | +21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,123,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 13,750 @ $17.07 | $235K | −100.0% of holding | +21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.79 | $44K | −100.0% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 227,987 @ $18.95 | $4.3M | −0.7% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,743,361 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Bruce Beth Witte | director | Sale | 23,500 @ $19.01 | $447K | −11.6% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,645 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-27 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 22,548 @ $18.95 | $427K | −1.9% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,142,473 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bruce Beth Witte | director | Sale | 21,063 @ $18.70 | $394K | −9.4% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 203,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 11,250 @ $18.56 | $209K | −100.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bruce Beth Witte | director | Sale | 2,437 @ $18.70 | $46K | −1.1% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,208 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 184,817 @ $18.78 | $3.5M | −0.5% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,971,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 18,279 @ $18.78 | $343K | −1.5% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,165,021 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 273,000 @ $18.97 | $5.2M | −0.8% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,156,165 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 27,000 @ $18.97 | $512K | −2.2% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,183,300 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 455,000 @ $19.06 | $8.7M | −1.3% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,429,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $19.06 | $858K | −3.6% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,210,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 16,250 @ $19.01 | $309K | −100.0% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Wright Andrew Pardo | director | Sale | 10,086 @ $19.00 | $192K | −11.2% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 269,881 @ $18.84 | $5.1M | −0.7% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,884,165 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 26,692 @ $18.84 | $503K | −2.1% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,255,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Wright Andrew Pardo | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $18.75 | $188K | −10.0% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,086 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 91,000 @ $18.76 | $1.7M | −0.3% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,154,046 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 11,250 @ $18.67 | $210K | −100.0% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $18.76 | $169K | −0.7% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,281,992 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.00 | $95K | −100.0% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 173,317 @ $18.81 | $3.3M | −0.5% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,245,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 17,141 @ $18.81 | $322K | −1.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,290,992 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Wright Andrew Pardo | director | Sale | 6,316 @ $18.90 | $119K | −5.9% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,086 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Gries Robert JR | director | Sale | 28,212 @ $18.70 | $528K | −1.5% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,861,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Gries Robert JR | director | Sale | 28,212 @ $18.55 | $523K | −1.5% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,890,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 67,205 @ $18.88 | $1.3M | −0.2% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,418,363 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Omiridis Anastasios | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $18.55 | $167K | −96.5% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 330 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 6,647 @ $18.88 | $125K | −0.5% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,308,133 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $18.57 | $93K | −100.0% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 85,436 @ $18.77 | $1.6M | −0.2% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,485,568 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Wright Andrew Pardo | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $18.75 | $281K | −6.8% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 206,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 8,450 @ $18.77 | $159K | −0.6% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,314,780 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Lucas Bruce | director | Sale | 191,276 @ $19.24 | $3.7M | −0.5% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,571,004 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-29 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Sale | 44,752 @ $20.02 | $896K | −100.0% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-29 | POWELL CHARLES WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 18,723 @ $20.03 | $375K | −90.0% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Lucas Shannon | director | Sale | 18,917 @ $19.24 | $364K | −1.4% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,323,230 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
179 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Option exercise | 11,374 | 11,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Option exercise | 11,374 | 27,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Option exercise | 11,374 | 11,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | LARSON MATTHEW PAUL | officer | Option exercise | 11,374 | 38,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Lucas Bruce | director | Withheld for tax | 9,019 | 2,207,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Lucas Shannon | director | Withheld for tax | 9,019 | 275,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 275,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 93,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 2,216,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 93,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 284,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 2,207,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 42,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lucas Shannon | director | Withheld for tax | 9,019 | 261,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lucas Bruce | director | Withheld for tax | 9,019 | 2,193,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,919 | 2,202,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,919 | 270,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,919 | 2,193,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,919 | 116,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | ROHDE STEPHEN L | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 52,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,919 | 261,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,919 | 116,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 1,000,000 | 2,179,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 1,000,000 | 650,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lucas Shannon | director | Withheld for tax | 9,019 | 247,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lucas Bruce | director | Withheld for tax | 9,019 | 1,179,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 256,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 139,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lucas Shannon | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 1,179,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 139,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 247,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lucas Bruce | director | Option exercise | 22,918 | 1,188,263 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.