Issued 2026-09-25 at $7.29 · now $7.29 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SLDB has typically landed between $4.96 and $11.08 — a range of −32.0% to +51.9% from the issuance price $7.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,152 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-01-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($7.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SLDB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $7.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.99 (-4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.62–$8.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.96–$11.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,152 windows spanning 2018-01-26 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-01-09 | −76.7% | −76.9% | +0.9% |
| 2019-01-08 | −76.5% | −76.5% | +2.4% |
| 2018-02-26 | −76.0% | −76.0% | +10.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-14 | +143.7% | +0.0% | +143.7% |
| 2020-12-07 | +141.6% | +0.0% | +141.6% |
| 2023-11-22 | +135.9% | +0.0% | +135.9% |
2,152 overlapping windows · 2018-01-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-10-15 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Microdystrophin Gene Transfer Study in Adolescents and Children With DMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-05-06 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study of SGT-003 Gene Therapy in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (INSPIRE DUCHENNE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of SGT-003 Gene Therapy in Ambulant Males With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (IMPACT DUCHENNE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
38%
−3.5%
n=8
Feb
44%
+2.8%
n=9
Mar
33%
−10.1%
n=9
Apr
33%
−1.6%
n=9
May
56%
+3.7%
n=9
Jun
56%
+12.7%
n=9
Jul
44%
+5.4%
n=9
Aug
44%
+1.4%
n=9
Sep
33%
−8.8%
n=9
Oct
25%
−4.1%
n=8
Nov
63%
−5.6%
n=8
Dec
50%
+25.0%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Sale | 16,644 @ $5.82 | $97K | −6.6% of holding | +24.1% | +51.9% | 235,405 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Howton David T | officer | Sale | 7,469 @ $5.82 | $43K | −6.6% of holding | +24.1% | +51.9% | 105,077 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Tan Kevin | officer | Sale | 5,404 @ $5.82 | $31K | −5.2% of holding | +24.1% | +51.9% | 99,422 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Sale | 4,134 @ $5.82 | $24K | −5.3% of holding | +24.1% | +51.9% | 74,318 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Herzich Paul | officer | Sale | 3,616 @ $5.82 | $21K | −4.7% of holding | +24.1% | +51.9% | 72,638 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 2,658 @ $5.82 | $15K | −8.8% of holding | +24.1% | +51.9% | 27,474 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Sale | 0 @ $5.82 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +24.1% | +51.9% | 89,466 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Sale | 48,913 @ $6.44 | $315K | −18.1% of holding | +5.5% | +21.0% | 222,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Howton David T | officer | Sale | 18,894 @ $6.44 | $122K | −16.2% of holding | +5.5% | +21.0% | 97,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Tan Kevin | officer | Sale | 14,783 @ $6.44 | $95K | −13.6% of holding | +5.5% | +21.0% | 94,201 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Sale | 12,616 @ $6.44 | $81K | −13.0% of holding | +5.5% | +21.0% | 84,092 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Sale | 12,348 @ $6.44 | $80K | −14.9% of holding | +5.5% | +21.0% | 70,327 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Herzich Paul | officer | Sale | 10,905 @ $6.44 | $70K | −13.6% of holding | +5.5% | +21.0% | 69,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 7,205 @ $6.44 | $46K | −22.2% of holding | +5.5% | +21.0% | 25,271 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Sale | 80,258 @ $6.44 | $517K | −22.9% of holding | −3.0% | +22.6% | 270,931 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Howton David T | officer | Sale | 37,771 @ $6.44 | $243K | −24.4% of holding | −3.0% | +22.6% | 116,753 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Sale | 28,335 @ $6.44 | $182K | −22.7% of holding | −3.0% | +22.6% | 96,708 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Tan Kevin | officer | Sale | 26,837 @ $6.44 | $173K | −19.8% of holding | −3.0% | +22.6% | 108,984 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Sale | 26,535 @ $6.44 | $171K | −24.3% of holding | −3.0% | +22.6% | 82,675 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Herzich Paul | officer | Sale | 26,250 @ $6.44 | $169K | −24.7% of holding | −3.0% | +22.6% | 79,972 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-28 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 191 @ $6.59 | $1K | −1.1% of holding | −3.8% | +22.4% | 17,476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Tan Kevin | officer | Sale | 5,704 @ $5.27 | $30K | −11.0% of holding | +19.6% | +66.6% | 46,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 1,053 @ $5.43 | $6K | −5.7% of holding | +22.6% | +97.4% | 17,278 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Sale | 10,808 @ $5.11 | $55K | −11.7% of holding | +1.8% | +20.6% | 81,388 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Howton David T | officer | Sale | 4,932 @ $5.11 | $25K | −13.0% of holding | +1.8% | +20.6% | 32,908 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Sale | 4,483 @ $5.11 | $23K | −14.4% of holding | +1.8% | +20.6% | 26,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Herzich Paul | officer | Sale | 2,701 @ $5.11 | $14K | −9.2% of holding | +1.8% | +20.6% | 26,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 3,278 @ $4.12 | $14K | −3.3% of holding | +40.8% | +68.3% | 95,412 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Sale | 2,895 @ $5.96 | $17K | −7.9% of holding | −25.6% | +30.0% | 33,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kahn Clare | director | Purchase | 1,860 @ $5.34 | $10K | +169.1% of holding | −50.1% | −24.6% | 2,960 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,444,170 @ $4.03 | $26.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −19.6% | −17.2% | 6,444,170 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 5,000,000 @ $4.03 | $20.1M | +73.2% of holding | −19.6% | −17.2% | 11,833,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 3,722,085 @ $4.03 | $15.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −19.6% | −17.2% | 3,722,085 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,000,000 @ $4.03 | $4.0M | +24.8% of holding | −19.6% | −17.2% | 5,034,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Adage Capital Management, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 252,545 @ $7.56 | $1.9M | +6.3% of holding | −1.8% | +4.2% | 4,248,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Sale | 11,365 @ $3.96 | $45K | −15.8% of holding | +30.3% | +43.5% | 60,717 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Howton David T | officer | Sale | 5,561 @ $3.96 | $22K | −18.3% of holding | +30.3% | +43.5% | 24,789 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Sale | 3,256 @ $3.96 | $13K | −12.5% of holding | +30.3% | +43.5% | 22,812 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Tan Kevin | officer | Sale | 3,164 @ $3.96 | $13K | −8.9% of holding | +30.3% | +43.5% | 32,250 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Sale | 3,079 @ $3.96 | $12K | −13.8% of holding | +30.3% | +43.5% | 19,281 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Herzich Paul | officer | Sale | 2,688 @ $3.96 | $11K | −12.8% of holding | +30.3% | +43.5% | 18,388 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 1,711 @ $3.96 | $7K | −10.3% of holding | +30.3% | +43.5% | 14,839 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 144 @ $3.11 | $448 | −1.2% of holding | +65.7% | +110.0% | 11,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Tan Kevin | officer | Sale | 4,073 @ $3.89 | $16K | −14.1% of holding | −14.6% | +38.7% | 24,789 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 1,056 @ $4.31 | $5K | −8.4% of holding | −25.5% | +26.5% | 11,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Sale | 11,114 @ $5.60 | $62K | −22.4% of holding | −18.4% | −12.2% | 38,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Howton David T | officer | Sale | 5,072 @ $5.60 | $28K | −24.5% of holding | −18.4% | −12.2% | 15,663 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Sale | 4,610 @ $5.60 | $26K | −24.5% of holding | −18.4% | −12.2% | 14,235 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Herzich Paul | officer | Sale | 2,777 @ $5.60 | $16K | −18.6% of holding | −18.4% | −12.2% | 12,182 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-21 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Sale | 2,923 @ $6.50 | $19K | −21.0% of holding | −13.3% | −31.2% | 10,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-07 | Kahn Clare | director | Purchase | 1,100 @ $7.67 | $8K | ownership Δ n/a | −18.5% | −51.9% | 1,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-02 | Ganot Ilan | director | Sale | 462 @ $10.33 | $5K | −4.6% of holding | −23.9% | −59.3% | 9,507 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
248 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | SMITH IAN F | director | Option exercise | 3,440 | 6,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | SMITH IAN F | director | Option exercise | 3,440 | 138,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | SMITH IAN F | director | Option exercise | 3,440 | 138,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Freed Martin I | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Stone Adam Leo | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SMITH IAN F | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Nagendran Sukumar | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Keresty Georgia | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kahn Clare | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Ganot Ilan | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sullivan Lynne Marie | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | SMITH IAN F | director | Option exercise | 3,441 | 10,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | SMITH IAN F | director | Option exercise | 3,441 | 134,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | SMITH IAN F | director | Option exercise | 3,441 | 134,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 8,912,655 | 8,912,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Ganot Ilan | director | Option exercise | 4,861 | 9,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Option exercise | 30,031 | 60,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Tan Kevin | officer | Option exercise | 10,625 | 21,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Herzich Paul | officer | Option exercise | 7,187 | 14,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Option exercise | 10,937 | 21,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Option exercise | 8,125 | 16,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Howton David T | officer | Option exercise | 14,687 | 29,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Option exercise | 8,125 | 78,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Option exercise | 10,937 | 95,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Howton David T | officer | Option exercise | 14,687 | 112,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Option exercise | 30,031 | 252,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Ganot Ilan | director | Option exercise | 4,861 | 30,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Herzich Paul | officer | Option exercise | 7,187 | 76,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Tan Kevin | officer | Option exercise | 10,625 | 104,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Option exercise | 30,031 | 252,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Tan Kevin | officer | Option exercise | 10,625 | 104,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Brooks Gabriel | officer | Option exercise | 10,937 | 95,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Ganot Ilan | director | Option exercise | 4,861 | 30,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Option exercise | 8,125 | 78,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Herzich Paul | officer | Option exercise | 7,187 | 76,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Howton David T | officer | Option exercise | 14,687 | 112,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Howton David T | officer | Option exercise | 42,275 | 126,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Ganot Ilan | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Hanrahan Jessie | officer | Option exercise | 27,625 | 82,875 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.