SKYWSkyWest, Inc.Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $97.13 · now $97.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SKYW has typically landed between $79.30 and $116.19 — a range of −18.4% to +19.6% from the issuance price $97.13.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($97.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SKYW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $97.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$79.3worst · -18.4%$116.19best · +19.6%
  • now $97.13 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $99.16 (+2.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $90.92–$107.41
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.3–$116.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−79.0%−79.0%+0.0%
2020-02-19−69.5%−78.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−64.2%−78.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+114.4%+0.0%+147.2%
2020-05-07+96.2%−4.2%+96.2%
2020-05-06+77.5%−4.0%+77.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−1.2%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.3%
n=20
May
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Jun
55%
−0.5%
n=20
Jul
70%
+4.2%
n=20
Aug
50%
+3.0%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Oct
70%
+6.1%
n=20
Nov
75%
+7.1%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$124$782026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Steel Wade J2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Wooley Greg2026-07-29: 3 insider sales, $2.8M — SIMMONS ROBERT J …2026-07-28: 4 insider sales, $5.7M — Childs Russell A …2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Steel Wade J2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $793K — Steel Wade J …2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $503K — Madden Meredith Siegfried2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $234K — Wooley Greg2025-08-12: 2 insider sales, $4.2M — Childs Russell A, Welch James L2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $4.4M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $503K2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $3.0M2026-07: 8 open-market sales, $10.4M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $2.5M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Steel Wade J — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wooley Greg — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer SIMMONS ROBERT J — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer SIMMONS ROBERT J — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer SIMMONS ROBERT J — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Childs Russell A — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Childs Russell A — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Childs Russell A — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Childs Russell A — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Steel Wade J — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Steel Wade J — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Steel Wade J — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Madden Meredith Siegfried — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Wooley Greg — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Childs Russell A — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Welch James L — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Steel Wade JofficerSale22,000 @ $111.44$2.5M−28.4% of holding−16.7%not yet — horizon still open55,438Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-30Wooley GregofficerSale17,726 @ $108.55$1.9M−24.9% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open53,323Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerSale14,988 @ $109.67$1.6M−12.6% of holding−15.5%not yet — horizon still open103,914Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-29SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerSale7,570 @ $112.04$848K−7.5% of holding−15.5%not yet — horizon still open93,902Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-29SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerSale2,442 @ $110.71$270K−2.4% of holding−15.5%not yet — horizon still open101,472Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Childs Russell AdirectorSale36,170 @ $113.46$4.1M−9.4% of holding−14.7%not yet — horizon still open348,018Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Childs Russell AdirectorSale9,902 @ $112.63$1.1M−2.5% of holding−14.7%not yet — horizon still open384,188Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Childs Russell AdirectorSale2,600 @ $111.46$290K−0.7% of holding−14.7%not yet — horizon still open394,090Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Childs Russell AdirectorSale1,828 @ $114.11$209K−0.5% of holding−14.7%not yet — horizon still open346,190Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Steel Wade JofficerSale20,629 @ $106.53$2.2M−21.0% of holding−7.6%−15.1%77,438Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Steel Wade JofficerSale4,258 @ $106.89$455K−4.0% of holding−11.3%−15.4%101,180Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Steel Wade JofficerSale3,113 @ $108.49$338K−3.1% of holding−11.3%−15.4%98,067Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Madden Meredith SiegfrieddirectorSale4,725 @ $106.54$503K−15.7% of holding−10.7%−24.6%25,362Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19Wooley GregofficerSale2,000 @ $116.83$234K−2.9% of holding−13.5%−19.8%66,737Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Childs Russell AdirectorSale26,000 @ $116.06$3.0M−6.0% of holding−9.1%−19.1%404,883Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Welch James LdirectorSale10,000 @ $116.09$1.2M−26.5% of holding−9.1%−19.1%27,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-30SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerSale8,802 @ $117.80$1.0M−7.2% of holding+2.7%−23.0%114,017Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-30SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerSale8,384 @ $117.10$982K−6.4% of holding+2.7%−23.0%122,819Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29Steel Wade JofficerSale12,596 @ $118.09$1.5M−10.5% of holding+3.3%−26.5%106,820Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29Welch James LdirectorSale10,000 @ $118.25$1.2M−21.0% of holding+3.3%−26.5%37,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29Woodward EricofficerSale5,305 @ $116.47$618K−9.7% of holding+3.3%−26.5%49,505Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29Steel Wade JofficerSale4,404 @ $118.74$523K−4.1% of holding+3.3%−26.5%102,416Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29Woodward EricofficerSale1,695 @ $117.30$199K−3.4% of holding+3.3%−26.5%47,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerSale16,255 @ $103.74$1.7M−11.0% of holding−1.1%−17.5%131,948Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerSale745 @ $104.13$78K−0.6% of holding−1.1%−17.5%131,203Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-28Steel Wade JofficerSale12,816 @ $100.91$1.3M−9.5% of holding−3.1%−17.7%121,600Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-28Steel Wade JofficerSale2,184 @ $101.67$222K−1.8% of holding−3.1%−17.7%119,416Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-27Childs Russell AdirectorSale17,000 @ $100.91$1.7M−3.6% of holding−4.4%−19.1%449,242Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Wooley GregofficerSale9,778 @ $104.28$1.0M−12.5% of holding−6.0%+6.2%68,737Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Wooley GregofficerSale3,822 @ $109.64$419K−4.6% of holding−6.0%+6.2%79,460Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Wooley GregofficerSale945 @ $104.96$99K−1.2% of holding−6.0%+6.2%78,515Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerSale6,000 @ $113.57$681K−3.3% of holding−19.2%−3.4%175,067Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-05Madden Meredith SiegfrieddirectorAward / grant1,21926,581Form 4
2026-05-05Conjeevaram SmitadirectorAward / grant1,21915,750Form 4
2026-05-05Welch James LdirectorAward / grant1,21928,936Form 4
2026-05-05MITTELSTAEDT RONALD JdirectorAward / grant1,2198,257Form 4
2026-05-05SMITH KEITHdirectorAward / grant1,21923,757Form 4
2026-05-05LEATHERS DEREK JdirectorAward / grant1,2194,019Form 4
2026-02-27Childs Russell AdirectorGift24,879396,690Form 4
2026-02-17Steel Wade JofficerGift5,700105,438Form 4
2026-02-09Childs Russell AdirectorWithheld for tax132,016421,569Form 4
2026-02-09SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerWithheld for tax47,085118,902Form 4
2026-02-09Steel Wade JofficerWithheld for tax43,248111,138Form 4
2026-02-09Wooley GregofficerWithheld for tax26,50971,049Form 4
2026-02-09Woodward EricofficerWithheld for tax16,23749,535Form 4
2026-02-03Childs Russell AdirectorAward / grant102,770517,744Form 4
2026-02-03Woodward EricofficerAward / grant1,28049,090Form 4
2026-02-03Woodward EricofficerAward / grant12,28861,378Form 4
2026-02-03Woodward EricofficerAward / grant3,05664,434Form 4
2026-02-03Woodward EricofficerAward / grant1,33865,772Form 4
2026-02-03Wooley GregofficerAward / grant2,10968,846Form 4
2026-02-03Wooley GregofficerAward / grant21,13589,981Form 4
2026-02-03Wooley GregofficerAward / grant5,27095,251Form 4
2026-02-03Wooley GregofficerAward / grant2,30797,558Form 4
2026-02-03Steel Wade JofficerAward / grant3,615106,031Form 4
2026-02-03Steel Wade JofficerAward / grant35,748141,779Form 4
2026-02-03Steel Wade JofficerAward / grant8,710150,489Form 4
2026-02-03Steel Wade JofficerAward / grant3,897154,386Form 4
2026-02-03Childs Russell AdirectorAward / grant10,091414,974Form 4
2026-02-03SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerAward / grant35,748153,380Form 4
2026-02-03SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerAward / grant8,710162,090Form 4
2026-02-03SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerAward / grant3,897165,987Form 4
2026-02-03Hansen Dale TofficerAward / grant1,5062,702Form 4
2026-02-03Hansen Dale TofficerAward / grant1,7114,413Form 4
2026-02-03Childs Russell AdirectorAward / grant24,816542,560Form 4
2026-02-03Childs Russell AdirectorAward / grant11,025553,585Form 4
2026-02-03SIMMONS ROBERT JofficerAward / grant3,615117,632Form 4
2025-12-29MITTELSTAEDT RONALD JdirectorGift5,5007,038Form 4
2025-07-28Childs Russell AdirectorGift18,359430,883Form 4
2025-05-06SMITH KEITHdirectorAward / grant1,25522,538Form 4
2025-05-06MITTELSTAEDT RONALD JdirectorAward / grant1,25512,538Form 4
2025-05-06Welch James LdirectorAward / grant1,25547,717Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.