Issued 2026-08-17 at $32.46 · now $32.46 (2026-08-07, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-17 close, SKYT has typically landed between $22.79 and $49.74 — a range of −29.8% to +53.2% from the issuance price $32.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,309 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-21 – 2026-07-08 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.7–55.8%, ≈1,465 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-17 issuance close ($32.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SKYT has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-17 close of $32.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.91 (-1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.75–$37.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.79–$49.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,309 windows spanning 2021-04-21 to 2026-08-07. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-17 | −54.4% | −54.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-19 | −53.2% | −53.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-25 | −53.1% | −53.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-05 | +180.3% | +0.0% | +180.3% |
| 2022-07-01 | +160.1% | +0.0% | +160.1% |
| 2022-07-06 | +157.5% | +0.0% | +163.6% |
1,309 overlapping windows · 2021-04-21 – 2026-08-07 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+10.6%
n=5
Feb
60%
+10.7%
n=5
Mar
0%
−12.5%
n=5
Apr
40%
−9.4%
n=5
May
83%
+11.8%
n=6
Jun
50%
−1.4%
n=6
Jul
33%
+11.4%
n=6
Aug
50%
+19.0%
n=6
Sep
40%
−2.6%
n=5
Oct
60%
+3.1%
n=5
Nov
40%
−2.3%
n=5
Dec
60%
+17.4%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Manko Steve | officer | Sale | 75,000 @ $35.08 | $2.6M | −43.7% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Manko Steve | officer | Sale | 84,215 @ $30.41 | $2.6M | −32.9% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Manko Steve | officer | Sale | 81,401 @ $27.84 | $2.3M | −27.4% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Manko Steve | officer | Sale | 9,708 @ $27.84 | $270K | −3.2% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 296,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $14.54 | $1.5M | −2.2% of holding | +25.1% | +151.3% | 4,487,394 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $14.53 | $1.5M | −1.5% of holding | +17.4% | +150.2% | 6,711,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $14.13 | $1.4M | −1.5% of holding | +20.9% | +156.8% | 6,611,256 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | SONDERMAN THOMAS | director | Sale | 5,210 @ $13.38 | $70K | −1.0% of holding | +20.9% | +156.8% | 521,757 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 9,662 @ $16.26 | $157K | −0.2% of holding | −2.6% | +122.4% | 4,787,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $17.45 | $209K | −0.2% of holding | −11.5% | +99.5% | 4,797,056 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Manko Steve | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $17.40 | $870K | −15.3% of holding | −6.3% | +89.0% | 277,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | SONDERMAN THOMAS | director | Sale | 5,207 @ $17.00 | $89K | −1.0% of holding | −6.3% | +89.0% | 526,967 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $20.55 | $45K | −0.0% of holding | −8.3% | +84.0% | 4,809,056 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 120,370 @ $18.02 | $2.2M | −1.7% of holding | −10.0% | +48.8% | 6,811,256 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Manko Steve | officer | Sale | 60,829 @ $17.40 | $1.1M | −15.7% of holding | −10.0% | +48.8% | 327,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Manko Steve | officer | Sale | 43,383 @ $15.13 | $656K | −10.5% of holding | +0.3% | +90.1% | 368,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 120,000 @ $14.05 | $1.7M | −1.7% of holding | +14.4% | +113.2% | 6,931,626 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 74,900 @ $12.81 | $959K | −1.0% of holding | +13.2% | +105.1% | 7,096,726 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 45,100 @ $13.59 | $613K | −0.6% of holding | +13.2% | +105.1% | 7,051,626 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 188,976 @ $10.47 | $2.0M | −2.6% of holding | +77.1% | +161.5% | 7,171,626 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 229,029 @ $10.44 | $2.4M | −3.0% of holding | +74.8% | +168.1% | 7,360,602 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-10 | SONDERMAN THOMAS | director | Sale | 8,355 @ $10.58 | $88K | −1.5% of holding | +97.1% | +175.3% | 532,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 4,396 @ $10.64 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | +97.1% | +175.3% | 7,589,631 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 6,218 @ $10.87 | $68K | −0.1% of holding | +81.3% | +165.3% | 7,594,027 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 60,767 @ $12.08 | $734K | −0.8% of holding | +52.1% | +142.9% | 7,600,245 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 311,959 @ $12.28 | $3.8M | −3.9% of holding | +45.6% | +137.4% | 7,661,012 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-27 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 188,041 @ $12.11 | $2.3M | −2.3% of holding | +48.0% | +138.8% | 7,972,971 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 756,516 @ $12.06 | $9.1M | −8.5% of holding | +25.4% | +148.2% | 8,161,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 243,484 @ $11.82 | $2.9M | −2.7% of holding | +28.4% | +139.1% | 8,917,528 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 292,628 @ $11.50 | $3.4M | −3.1% of holding | +25.3% | +130.4% | 9,161,012 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 37,979 @ $11.16 | $424K | −0.4% of holding | +35.9% | +145.1% | 9,453,640 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 97,957 @ $11.62 | $1.1M | −1.0% of holding | +5.9% | +145.0% | 9,491,619 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 5,684 @ $11.51 | $65K | −0.1% of holding | −1.7% | +145.4% | 9,589,576 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 217,329 @ $11.80 | $2.6M | −2.2% of holding | −6.1% | +141.2% | 9,595,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 287,454 @ $12.38 | $3.6M | −2.8% of holding | −15.8% | +125.5% | 9,812,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | SONDERMAN THOMAS | director | Sale | 24,936 @ $12.24 | $305K | −4.4% of holding | −15.8% | +125.5% | 540,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 345,765 @ $12.84 | $4.4M | −3.3% of holding | −21.8% | +124.1% | 10,100,043 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Manko Steve | officer | Sale | 37,845 @ $13.62 | $516K | −9.3% of holding | −28.0% | +105.9% | 368,407 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | SONDERMAN THOMAS | director | Sale | 14,958 @ $10.04 | $150K | −2.6% of holding | −4.1% | +57.6% | 565,465 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 900 @ $9.13 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | +7.5% | +114.4% | 10,445,808 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 67,345 @ $9.44 | $636K | −0.6% of holding | +2.7% | +94.9% | 10,446,708 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-10 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 33,640 @ $9.36 | $315K | −0.3% of holding | +5.4% | +97.8% | 10,514,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 17,136 @ $9.36 | $160K | −0.2% of holding | +6.3% | +90.7% | 10,547,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 3,144 @ $9.35 | $29K | −0.0% of holding | +10.9% | +84.0% | 10,564,829 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-04 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 5,919 @ $9.50 | $56K | −0.1% of holding | +7.5% | +80.7% | 10,567,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 200 @ $9.50 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +3.6% | +45.0% | 10,573,892 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-28 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 86,273 @ $9.50 | $820K | −0.8% of holding | +2.7% | +45.6% | 10,574,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 366,418 @ $9.54 | $3.5M | −3.3% of holding | +6.4% | +42.1% | 10,660,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 134,049 @ $9.41 | $1.3M | −1.2% of holding | −1.8% | +36.1% | 11,026,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 1,412,247 @ $8.20 | $11.6M | −11.2% of holding | −12.2% | +21.5% | 11,160,832 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 22,090 @ $8.22 | $182K | −64.3% of holding | −12.2% | +21.5% | 12,285 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | GRAVES GREGORY B | director | Sale | 12,844 @ $8.11 | $104K | −47.3% of holding | −12.2% | +21.5% | 14,285 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 3,800 @ $8.51 | $32K | −0.0% of holding | −13.6% | +11.5% | 12,573,079 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 86,653 @ $8.51 | $737K | −0.7% of holding | −17.2% | +15.0% | 12,576,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 7,761 @ $9.27 | $72K | −0.1% of holding | +27.3% | −2.6% | 12,806,264 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 44,296 @ $9.26 | $410K | −0.3% of holding | +27.4% | −9.8% | 12,814,025 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-09 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 61,299 @ $9.38 | $575K | −0.5% of holding | +32.8% | −4.9% | 12,858,321 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $9.38 | $938K | −0.8% of holding | +35.5% | −0.5% | 12,919,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
203 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Sakamoto John | officer | Disposition | 87,996 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Baxter Timothy E | director | Disposition | 11,428 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Baxter Timothy E | director | Disposition | 5,738 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 1,069,543 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 812,139 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 23,713 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 3 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 4,487,394 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 4,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 531,283 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 2 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 687,811 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 687,811 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 687,812 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 687,812 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Daly Edward | director | Disposition | 34,879 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Daly Edward | director | Disposition | 4,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | FARES NANCY | director | Disposition | 43,501 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | FARES NANCY | director | Disposition | 4,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goetz Dennis J | director | Disposition | 23,713 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goetz Dennis J | director | Disposition | 4,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hilberg Christopher | officer | Disposition | 30,140 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hilberg Christopher | officer | Disposition | 34,251 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hilberg Christopher | officer | Disposition | 4,644 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hilberg Christopher | officer | Disposition | 9,869 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hilberg Christopher | officer | Disposition | 25,009 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hilberg Christopher | officer | Disposition | 23,586 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hilberg Christopher | officer | Disposition | 22,380 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Humke Joseph J | director | Disposition | 23,713 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Humke Joseph J | director | Disposition | 4,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | LaFrence Andrew D.C. | director | Disposition | 11,428 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | LaFrence Andrew D.C. | director | Disposition | 4,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Manko Steve | officer | Disposition | 40,284 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Manko Steve | officer | Disposition | 56,283 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Manko Steve | officer | Disposition | 10,696 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Manko Steve | officer | Disposition | 19,416 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Manko Steve | officer | Disposition | 27,646 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Miller Tammy J | director | Disposition | 11,428 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Miller Tammy J | director | Disposition | 4,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unterseher Loren A | director | Disposition | 1,069,543 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.