SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.28 · now $57.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SKWD has typically landed between $50.94 and $67.06 — a range of −11.1% to +17.1% from the issuance price $57.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

900 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-01-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SKWD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$50.94worst · -11.1%$67.06best · +17.1%
  • now $57.28 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.49 (+2.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.18–$61.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.94–$67.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 900 windows spanning 2023-01-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-12-04−17.9%−17.9%+0.0%
2024-12-20−17.4%−17.5%+0.9%
2024-12-09−17.2%−17.2%+2.6%
3 best
2026-06-04+41.7%+0.0%+41.7%
2026-06-03+40.9%+0.0%+43.7%
2026-06-02+39.3%−3.1%+39.3%

900 overlapping windows · 2023-01-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
0%
−11.1%
n=3
Feb
100%
+11.2%
n=4
Mar
75%
+2.5%
n=4
Apr
50%
−1.1%
n=4
May
75%
+8.4%
n=4
Jun
50%
+7.0%
n=4
Jul
50%
−1.8%
n=4
Aug
50%
−0.7%
n=4
Sep
25%
+2.6%
n=4
Oct
67%
+2.4%
n=3
Nov
100%
+15.3%
n=3
Dec
67%
+0.5%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$66$412026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $431K — Schmitt Thomas N2026-05-21: 3 insider purchases, $94K — Kuczinski Anthony J …2026-05-11: 3 insider sales, $34K — Ashe Gena L …2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $48K — Kuczinski Anthony J2026-03-02: 2 insider purchases, $249K — Peirce Christopher Locke, Kuczinski Anthony J2026-02-27: 5 insider purchases, $1.1M — Robinson Andrew S, Kuczinski Anthony J, McHarg Taryn Leonie …2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $114K — Schmitt Thomas N2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $252K — Kapadia Sandip A2025-12-12: 2 insider sales, $134K — Kapadia Sandip A …2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $4K — Schmitt Thomas N2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $390K2026-02: 5 open-market purchases, $1.1M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $114K2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $297K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $94K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $34K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $431K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Schmitt Thomas N — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Kuczinski Anthony J — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector Kuczinski Anthony J — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector Kuczinski Anthony J — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector Ashe Gena L — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ashe Gena L — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ashe Gena L — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kuczinski Anthony J — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Peirce Christopher Locke — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kuczinski Anthony J — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Robinson Andrew S — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daydirector Robinson Andrew S — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daydirector Kuczinski Anthony J — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer McHarg Taryn Leonie — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer McHarg Taryn Leonie — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Schmitt Thomas N — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kapadia Sandip A — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kapadia Sandip A — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kapadia Sandip A — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Schmitt Thomas N — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12Schmitt Thomas NofficerSale8,397 @ $51.32$431K−44.8% of holding+11.6%not yet — horizon still open10,353Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-21Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $47.20$47K+6.7% of holding+13.5%not yet — horizon still open15,977Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase800 @ $47.00$38K+5.6% of holding+13.5%not yet — horizon still open14,977Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase200 @ $47.00$9K+1.4% of holding+13.5%not yet — horizon still open14,177Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-11Ashe Gena LdirectorSale500 @ $46.35$23K−9.9% of holding+8.7%not yet — horizon still open4,570Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Ashe Gena LdirectorSale140 @ $46.35$6K−2.7% of holding+8.7%not yet — horizon still open5,070Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Ashe Gena LdirectorSale100 @ $46.35$5K−1.9% of holding+8.7%not yet — horizon still open5,210Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $48.13$48K+9.2% of holding−7.3%+6.5%11,903Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Peirce Christopher LockedirectorPurchase3,200 @ $47.30$151Kownership Δ n/a−5.1%+5.8%3,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $48.79$98K+22.5% of holding−5.1%+5.8%10,903Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27Robinson Andrew SdirectorPurchase11,279 @ $46.94$529K+7.2% of holding+1.7%+12.7%167,674Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Robinson Andrew SdirectorPurchase10,821 @ $46.57$504K+7.4% of holding+1.7%+12.7%156,395Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $46.88$94K+29.0% of holding+1.7%+12.7%8,903Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-27McHarg Taryn LeonieofficerPurchase100 @ $46.71$5Kownership Δ n/a+1.7%+12.7%100Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27McHarg Taryn LeonieofficerPurchase100 @ $46.49$5Kownership Δ n/a+1.7%+12.7%100Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-09Schmitt Thomas NofficerSale2,616 @ $43.49$114K−15.1% of holding+8.6%+32.4%14,747Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-18Kapadia Sandip AofficerSale5,030 @ $50.01$252K−38.4% of holding−14.1%−7.3%8,059Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12Kapadia Sandip AofficerSale1,486 @ $50.03$74K−9.4% of holding−10.8%−10.9%14,289Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Kapadia Sandip AofficerSale1,200 @ $50.01$60K−8.4% of holding−10.8%−10.9%13,089Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Schmitt Thomas NofficerSale88 @ $47.61$4K−0.9% of holding−10.0%−11.1%9,959Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-06Robinson Andrew SdirectorSale36,103 @ $62.65$2.3M−35.6% of holding−17.0%−40.5%65,437Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-06Robinson Andrew SdirectorSale168 @ $63.58$11K−0.3% of holding−17.0%−40.5%65,269Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-14Hill KirbyofficerSale8,249 @ $60.87$502K−50.0% of holding−5.6%−36.0%8,249Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Robinson Andrew SdirectorSale13,786 @ $59.23$817K−12.0% of holding−4.8%−42.7%101,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08HAUSHILL MARK WofficerSale3,447 @ $59.23$204K−1.8% of holding−4.8%−42.7%186,146Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Duffy Sean WofficerSale5,625 @ $48.90$275K−39.0% of holding+13.8%−22.6%8,813Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Robinson Andrew SdirectorSale20,311 @ $50.24$1.0M−19.8% of holding+11.4%−12.4%82,044Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Hill KirbyofficerSale2,707 @ $50.24$136K−14.1% of holding+11.4%−12.4%16,498Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Burkhart John A IIIofficerSale2,570 @ $50.24$129K−10.6% of holding+11.4%−12.4%21,750Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Hill KirbyofficerSale2,562 @ $50.24$129K−17.0% of holding+11.4%−12.4%12,540Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06HAUSHILL MARK WofficerSale2,363 @ $50.24$119K−1.3% of holding+11.4%−12.4%181,273Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Burkhart John A IIIofficerSale2,262 @ $50.24$114K−11.4% of holding+11.4%−12.4%17,655Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Duffy Sean WofficerSale2,008 @ $50.24$101K−12.2% of holding+11.4%−12.4%14,438Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Duffy Sean WofficerSale2,002 @ $50.24$101K−14.9% of holding+11.4%−12.4%11,446Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Bodnar Dan PKofficerSale1,928 @ $50.24$97K−10.0% of holding+11.4%−12.4%17,340Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Schmitt Thomas NofficerSale1,928 @ $50.24$97K−16.5% of holding+11.4%−12.4%9,727Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Kapadia Sandip AofficerSale1,866 @ $50.24$94K−10.8% of holding+11.4%−12.4%15,347Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Schmitt Thomas NofficerSale1,697 @ $50.24$85K−20.3% of holding+11.4%−12.4%6,655Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Shaunty LeslieofficerSale1,412 @ $50.24$71K−5.1% of holding+11.4%−12.4%26,104Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Bodnar Dan PKofficerSale1,131 @ $50.24$57K−7.3% of holding+11.4%−12.4%14,268Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Kapadia Sandip AofficerSale1,095 @ $50.24$55K−8.2% of holding+11.4%−12.4%12,213Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Ashe Gena LdirectorSale1,000 @ $50.62$51K−57.7% of holding+11.4%−12.4%734Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Shaunty LeslieofficerSale828 @ $50.24$42K−3.5% of holding+11.4%−12.4%22,516Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Clark Chase MofficerSale628 @ $50.24$32K−16.1% of holding+11.4%−12.4%3,279Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Clark Chase MofficerSale473 @ $50.24$24K−25.2% of holding+11.4%−12.4%1,407Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-03Schmitt Thomas NofficerSale6,300 @ $51.92$327K−61.5% of holding+3.3%−19.2%3,946Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Schmitt Thomas NofficerSale546 @ $46.85$26K−5.1% of holding+7.6%+12.7%10,246Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Kapadia Sandip AofficerSale464 @ $46.97$22K−4.3% of holding+7.6%+12.7%10,371Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Kapadia Sandip AofficerSale444 @ $46.99$21K−3.9% of holding+7.6%+12.7%10,835Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Shaunty LeslieofficerSale344 @ $47.07$16K−1.7% of holding+7.6%+12.7%20,407Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Robinson Andrew SdirectorSale130 @ $47.11$6K−0.2% of holding+7.6%+12.7%63,676Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Robinson Andrew SdirectorSale47 @ $47.10$2K−0.1% of holding+7.6%+12.7%63,629Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-03Robinson Andrew SdirectorSale9,643 @ $47.83$461K−12.5% of holding+1.0%+11.5%67,501Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-03Robinson Andrew SdirectorSale3,695 @ $47.63$176K−5.5% of holding+1.0%+11.5%63,806Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

246 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06HEARN PETER CdirectorAward / grant1,8451,845Form 4
2026-05-11Ashe Gena LdirectorOption exercise1,7970Form 4
2026-05-11Ashe Gena LdirectorOption exercise1,7975,310Form 4
2026-05-11Ashe Gena LdirectorOption exercise1,7975,310Form 4
2026-05-07Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorOption exercise1,7970Form 4
2026-05-07Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorOption exercise1,79713,977Form 4
2026-05-07Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorOption exercise1,79713,977Form 4
2026-05-06Robinson Andrew SdirectorWithheld for tax7,930179,894Form 4
2026-05-06HAUSHILL MARK WofficerWithheld for tax1,982139,466Form 4
2026-05-06Burkhart John A IIIofficerWithheld for tax1,89437,736Form 4
2026-05-06Duffy Sean WofficerWithheld for tax1,67120,097Form 4
2026-05-06Kapadia Sandip AofficerWithheld for tax1,37418,353Form 4
2026-05-06Schmitt Thomas NofficerWithheld for tax1,32218,559Form 4
2026-05-06Bodnar Dan PKofficerWithheld for tax1,00428,147Form 4
2026-05-06Peirce Christopher LockedirectorAward / grant3,8903,890Form 4
2026-05-06Robinson Andrew SdirectorOption exercise15,1510Form 4
2026-05-06Ashe Gena LdirectorAward / grant3,3343,334Form 4
2026-05-06Duffy Sean WofficerOption exercise3,80521,768Form 4
2026-05-06Dall Marcia AdirectorAward / grant3,3343,334Form 4
2026-05-06Duffy Sean WofficerOption exercise2,8610Form 4
2026-05-06Kapadia Sandip AofficerOption exercise2,68619,727Form 4
2026-05-06Kapadia Sandip AofficerOption exercise2,0200Form 4
2026-05-06Robinson Andrew SdirectorOption exercise20,150187,824Form 4
2026-05-06Terry KatharinedirectorAward / grant3,3343,334Form 4
2026-05-06Morrissey Michael J.directorAward / grant3,3343,334Form 4
2026-05-06Schmitt Thomas NofficerOption exercise3,35819,881Form 4
2026-05-06Schmitt Thomas NofficerOption exercise2,5250Form 4
2026-05-06Burkhart John A IIIofficerOption exercise4,81339,630Form 4
2026-05-06Burkhart John A IIIofficerOption exercise3,6190Form 4
2026-05-06Bodnar Dan PKofficerOption exercise2,68629,151Form 4
2026-05-06Bodnar Dan PKofficerOption exercise2,0200Form 4
2026-05-06HAUSHILL MARK WofficerOption exercise3,7870Form 4
2026-05-06HAUSHILL MARK WofficerOption exercise5,036141,448Form 4
2026-05-06Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorAward / grant3,3343,334Form 4
2026-05-05Creager Robert E.directorOption exercise1,7970Form 4
2026-05-05Hays James CharlesdirectorOption exercise1,7970Form 4
2026-05-05Creager Robert E.directorOption exercise1,79754,830Form 4
2026-05-05Creager Robert E.directorOption exercise1,79754,830Form 4
2026-05-05Hays James CharlesdirectorOption exercise1,797175,858Form 4
2026-05-05Hays James CharlesdirectorOption exercise1,797175,858Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.