Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.10 · now $6.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SKIL has typically landed between $3.77 and $8.62 — a range of −38.1% to +41.4% from the issuance price $6.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,774 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-07-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SKIL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.75 (-5.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.83–$6.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.77–$8.62
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-29 | −57.7% | −58.7% | +0.1% |
| 2026-01-23 | −57.3% | −57.3% | +2.1% |
| 2026-02-02 | −57.2% | −58.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-08 | +113.1% | +0.0% | +122.2% |
| 2026-03-19 | +104.6% | −0.3% | +104.6% |
| 2026-04-09 | +103.1% | +0.0% | +104.3% |
1,774 overlapping windows · 2019-07-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | FRANKOLA JIM | director | Purchase | 27,000 @ $6.05 | $163K | +39.5% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | FRANKOLA JIM | director | Purchase | 23,000 @ $6.06 | $139K | +50.8% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,306 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
210 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Swiniarski Keith C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 4,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Swiniarski Keith C. | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Barbour Bernard | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cushing Matthew J. | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Swiniarski Keith C. | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 4,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,174 | 24,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 25,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | HOVSEPIAN RONALD W | director | Option exercise | 31,250 | 218,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | HOVSEPIAN RONALD W | director | Option exercise | 31,250 | 341,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,174 | 21,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Swiniarski Keith C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 152 | 3,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Swiniarski Keith C. | officer | Option exercise | 625 | 1,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Swiniarski Keith C. | officer | Option exercise | 625 | 3,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 23,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Foulkes Helena | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | FRANKOLA JIM | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Gilliland Arthur W | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Klein Michael Stuart | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | MILLS KAREN G | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Schmitt Peter | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Gilliland Arthur W | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Klein Michael Stuart | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 39,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Klein Michael Stuart | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | MILLS KAREN G | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | MILLS KAREN G | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 12,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Schmitt Peter | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Schmitt Peter | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 12,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Foulkes Helena | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | FRANKOLA JIM | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | FRANKOLA JIM | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 107,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Foulkes Helena | director | Option exercise | 12,430 | 12,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Gilliland Arthur W | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 6,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KISLING RONALD W | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,174 | 19,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Semel Scott | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 20,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Semel Scott | officer | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Glitzer Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,266 | 39,381 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.