SJMThe J. M. Smucker CompanyConsumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $123.56 · now $123.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SJM has typically landed between $111.73 and $136.11 — a range of −9.6% to +10.2% from the issuance price $123.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($123.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SJM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $123.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$111.73worst · -9.6%$136.11best · +10.2%
  • now $123.56 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $124.48 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $119.25–$129.72
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $111.73–$136.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−24.6%−24.6%+0.0%
2008-06-02−23.1%−23.4%+1.6%
2008-05-30−23.0%−23.0%+2.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+23.8%+0.0%+27.0%
2009-05-27+22.2%+0.0%+22.2%
2009-05-29+21.3%+0.0%+21.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$12.6B
market cap
$-1.30
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-26
next earnings
Revenue$9.1B
'21'26
Net income−$139M
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.2B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr-1.5%
'21'26
ROE · by yr-2.5%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr1.28
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $123.56$34.82$144.57
  • DCF (intrinsic)$42.38
  • Analyst target · range $95.00–$137.00$125.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$123.56

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.7%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.0%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.1%
n=19
May
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
89%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.0%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$132$892026-08-31: 2 insider sales, $11.5M — SMUCKER MARK T, Ferguson Robert D2026-08-28: 2 insider sales, $2.4M — Marshall Tucker H …2026-06-29: 1 insider sale, $583K — Penrose Jill R2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $501K — Knudsen Jeannette L2026-06-24: 1 insider sale, $403K — Marshall Tucker H2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — SMUCKER MARK T2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $645K — Knudsen Jeannette L2026-03-10: 2 insider sales, $50K — SMUCKER MARK T …2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $100K — AMIN TARANG2025-09-30: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Marshall Tucker H2025-09-24: 1 insider sale, $715K — SMUCKER MARK T2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $100K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $50K2026-06: 5 open-market sales, $3.6M2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $13.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector SMUCKER MARK T — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ferguson Robert D — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Marshall Tucker H — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Marshall Tucker H — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Penrose Jill R — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Knudsen Jeannette L — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Marshall Tucker H — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMUCKER MARK T — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Knudsen Jeannette L — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMUCKER MARK T — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMUCKER MARK T — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector AMIN TARANG — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marshall Tucker H — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMUCKER MARK T — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31SMUCKER MARK TdirectorSale84,821 @ $131.39$11.1M−45.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open101,386Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31Ferguson Robert DofficerSale2,522 @ $132.41$334K−6.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open36,295Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-28Marshall Tucker HofficerSale11,093 @ $131.91$1.5M−22.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open38,699Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-28Marshall Tucker HofficerSale7,389 @ $132.26$977K−12.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open49,792Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-29Penrose Jill RofficerSale5,000 @ $116.69$583K−24.0% of holding+10.6%not yet — horizon still open15,795Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-26Knudsen Jeannette LofficerSale4,353 @ $115.08$501K−20.5% of holding+4.8%not yet — horizon still open16,835Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-24Marshall Tucker HofficerSale3,630 @ $111.05$403K−8.6% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open38,699Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-17SMUCKER MARK TdirectorSale13,000 @ $115.11$1.5M−13.7% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open82,009Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11Knudsen Jeannette LofficerSale5,550 @ $116.29$645K−25.7% of holding−9.0%not yet — horizon still open16,039Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10SMUCKER MARK TdirectorSale231 @ $108.97$25K−1.8% of holding−15.4%+1.8%12,771Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10SMUCKER MARK TdirectorSale231 @ $108.86$25K−1.8% of holding−15.4%+1.8%12,771Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02AMIN TARANGdirectorPurchase880 @ $113.41$100K+23.0% of holding−10.9%+3.3%4,705Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-30Marshall Tucker HofficerSale11,139 @ $108.11$1.2M−24.8% of holding−10.0%−9.2%33,864Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-24SMUCKER MARK TdirectorSale6,500 @ $110.00$715K−7.8% of holding−8.6%−10.2%76,792Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12AMIN TARANGdirectorPurchase1,050 @ $96.09$101K+37.8% of holding+3.8%−9.1%3,825Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-28Penrose Jill RofficerSale5,117 @ $116.26$595K−36.8% of holding−0.6%−25.9%8,794Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-21Knudsen Jeannette LofficerSale2,700 @ $110.55$298K−15.6% of holding+13.8%−18.4%14,627Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-13Marshall Tucker HofficerSale5,028 @ $113.36$570K−27.5% of holding+6.6%−21.6%13,263Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11AMIN TARANGdirectorPurchase875 @ $114.87$101K+46.1% of holding+1.7%−19.8%2,775Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17Marshall Tucker HofficerSale994 @ $113.00$112K−5.0% of holding−9.8%−13.6%18,734Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Knudsen Jeannette LofficerWithheld for tax1,58415,251Form 4
2026-09-01Penrose Jill RofficerWithheld for tax1,46114,334Form 4
2026-09-01Ferguson Robert DofficerWithheld for tax1,12135,174Form 4
2026-08-31SMUCKER MARK TdirectorOption exercise84,8210Form 4
2026-08-31SMUCKER MARK TdirectorOption exercise84,821186,207Form 4
2026-08-28Marshall Tucker HofficerOption exercise11,0930Form 4
2026-08-28Marshall Tucker HofficerOption exercise11,09357,181Form 4
2026-08-28Marshall Tucker HofficerOption exercise7,3890Form 4
2026-08-28Marshall Tucker HofficerOption exercise7,38946,088Form 4
2026-07-01Abramo MercedesdirectorAward / grant2186,252Form 4
2026-07-01Perry KirkdirectorAward / grant21822,991Form 4
2026-07-01Chung BrucedirectorAward / grant229506Form 4
2026-07-01AMIN TARANGdirectorAward / grant2477,346Form 4
2026-06-15SMUCKER MARK TdirectorWithheld for tax11,44895,009Form 4
2026-06-15Knudsen Jeannette LofficerWithheld for tax1,48321,188Form 4
2026-06-15SMUCKER MARK TdirectorWithheld for tax1,229106,457Form 4
2026-06-15Marshall Tucker HofficerWithheld for tax68342,329Form 4
2026-06-15Marshall Tucker HofficerWithheld for tax58743,012Form 4
2026-06-15Ferguson Robert DofficerWithheld for tax51638,817Form 4
2026-06-15Ferguson Robert DofficerWithheld for tax47639,333Form 4
2026-06-15Penrose Jill RofficerWithheld for tax43720,795Form 4
2026-06-15Penrose Jill RofficerWithheld for tax39521,232Form 4
2026-06-15Ferguson Robert DofficerWithheld for tax26739,809Form 4
2026-06-15Marshall Tucker HofficerWithheld for tax20343,599Form 4
2026-06-15Knudsen Jeannette LofficerWithheld for tax16522,671Form 4
2026-06-15Penrose Jill RofficerWithheld for tax14721,627Form 4
2026-06-11Ferguson Robert DofficerAward / grant8,65040,076Form 4
2026-06-11SMUCKER MARK TdirectorAward / grant34,497107,686Form 4
2026-06-11Knudsen Jeannette LofficerAward / grant6,79722,836Form 4
2026-06-11Marshall Tucker HofficerAward / grant9,20743,802Form 4
2026-06-11Penrose Jill RofficerAward / grant5,97821,774Form 4
2026-06-11Williams Katherine MarieofficerAward / grant3,13612,848Form 4
2026-04-01Perry KirkdirectorAward / grant26222,527Form 4
2026-04-01Chung BrucedirectorAward / grant275275Form 4
2026-04-01Abramo MercedesdirectorAward / grant2625,969Form 4
2026-04-01AMIN TARANGdirectorAward / grant2626,958Form 4
2026-03-20Williams Katherine MarieofficerAward / grant2,7129,712Form 4
2026-03-20Williams Katherine MarieofficerAward / grant5,0005,000Form 4
2026-03-20Williams Katherine MarieofficerAward / grant2,0007,000Form 4
2026-03-20Ferguson Robert DofficerAward / grant2,99231,426Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2025-04-032025-02-20$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2025-04-032025-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-02-112025-01-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-08-072024-07-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.