Issued 2026-09-16 at $548.90 · now $548.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SITM has typically landed between $404.44 and $754.66 — a range of −26.3% to +37.5% from the issuance price $548.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-11-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($548.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SITM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $548.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $548.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $558.77 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $487.34–$630.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $404.44–$754.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,692 windows spanning 2019-11-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-03 | −52.4% | −52.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-02 | −46.4% | −46.4% | +5.6% |
| 2020-02-11 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-10 | +114.5% | +0.0% | +114.5% |
| 2026-04-09 | +104.8% | +0.0% | +104.8% |
| 2026-04-08 | +101.9% | +0.0% | +101.9% |
1,692 overlapping windows · 2019-11-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
43%
−1.8%
n=7
Feb
29%
−9.2%
n=7
Mar
57%
+2.9%
n=7
Apr
14%
−1.1%
n=7
May
86%
+22.6%
n=7
Jun
86%
+14.1%
n=7
Jul
71%
+3.4%
n=7
Aug
86%
+9.7%
n=7
Sep
43%
+3.4%
n=7
Oct
33%
+4.2%
n=6
Nov
100%
+12.3%
n=6
Dec
71%
+14.2%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Pangrazio Vincent P | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $625.00 | $1.9M | −6.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,997 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $603.47 | $7.2M | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 345,544 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Frank Edward H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $745.00 | $745K | −8.3% of holding | −24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Kreindl Torsten | director | Sale | 345 @ $750.12 | $259K | −2.8% of holding | −24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Kreindl Torsten | director | Sale | 350 @ $700.00 | $245K | −2.8% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,131 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | SCHUELKE KATHERINE | director | Sale | 500 @ $698.05 | $349K | −4.0% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $725.00 | $1.1M | −2.1% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Kreindl Torsten | director | Sale | 700 @ $715.00 | $501K | −5.3% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,481 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Kreindl Torsten | director | Sale | 350 @ $735.00 | $257K | −2.6% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,181 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $750.20 | $11.3M | −3.7% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 387,898 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $750.00 | $3.8M | −33.8% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,781 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Sale | 500 @ $736.02 | $368K | −0.7% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,797 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Chitkara Raman | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $727.38 | $1.5M | −9.1% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,898 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Pangrazio Vincent P | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $725.32 | $1.5M | −3.6% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,416 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $700.00 | $700K | −1.3% of holding | −15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,297 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 800 @ $710.68 | $569K | −1.0% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 200 @ $711.25 | $142K | −0.3% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $701.13 | $21.0M | −6.9% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 402,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $701.13 | $7.0M | −40.4% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $702.90 | $703K | −1.3% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Heckart Christine | director | Sale | 1,290 @ $700.00 | $903K | −62.0% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $712.72 | $1.1M | −1.8% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,936 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 1,709 @ $731.49 | $1.3M | −2.1% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,436 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kreindl Torsten | director | Sale | 710 @ $720.00 | $511K | −5.1% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | MEGACHIPS CORP /FI | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 400,000 @ $779.50 | $311.8M | −11.7% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,020,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Takata Akira | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $860.86 | $1.3M | −10.9% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,234 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Sevalia Piyush B | officer | Sale | 2,419 @ $484.05 | $1.2M | −2.8% of holding | +40.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,250 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Sevalia Piyush B | officer | Sale | 1,247 @ $425.00 | $530K | −1.4% of holding | +105.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,669 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Sevalia Piyush B | officer | Sale | 1,249 @ $375.00 | $468K | −1.4% of holding | +52.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Chitkara Raman | director | Sale | 500 @ $425.00 | $213K | −2.3% of holding | −16.7% | +15.9% | 21,508 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Chitkara Raman | director | Sale | 1 @ $440.00 | $440 | −0.0% of holding | −16.7% | +15.9% | 22,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 4,984 @ $406.45 | $2.0M | −5.3% of holding | −8.2% | +34.7% | 89,194 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Sale | 3,933 @ $406.48 | $1.6M | −4.7% of holding | −8.2% | +34.7% | 80,274 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Sale | 193 @ $411.35 | $79K | −0.2% of holding | −6.5% | +34.2% | 84,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Sevalia Piyush B | officer | Sale | 566 @ $425.00 | $241K | −0.6% of holding | −9.4% | +38.0% | 92,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Sevalia Piyush B | officer | Sale | 566 @ $413.08 | $234K | −0.6% of holding | −13.8% | +51.3% | 93,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Sale | 9,100 @ $441.47 | $4.0M | −14.7% of holding | −21.0% | +44.7% | 52,938 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 2,112 @ $428.08 | $904K | −2.1% of holding | −21.0% | +44.7% | 97,937 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 500 @ $416.06 | $208K | −0.5% of holding | −18.2% | +52.3% | 100,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Takata Akira | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $431.73 | $1.5M | −20.3% of holding | −13.2% | +52.3% | 13,734 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $369.20 | $738K | −0.5% of holding | −5.9% | +50.0% | 431,609 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $302.08 | $453K | −1.8% of holding | +19.6% | +117.9% | 83,315 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $291.10 | $1.2M | −7.2% of holding | +22.5% | +136.7% | 51,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $291.02 | $582K | −0.5% of holding | +22.5% | +136.7% | 433,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $291.58 | $437K | −1.7% of holding | +22.5% | +136.7% | 84,815 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Sale | 1,078 @ $269.83 | $291K | −1.5% of holding | +31.7% | +147.4% | 72,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | MEGACHIPS CORP /FI | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 400,000 @ $255.60 | $102.2M | −10.5% of holding | +43.7% | +178.3% | 3,420,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $329.00 | $3.3M | −2.2% of holding | +4.5% | +154.4% | 439,208 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $290.50 | $291K | −0.2% of holding | +20.1% | +108.3% | 450,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $289.00 | $289K | −0.2% of holding | +20.1% | +108.3% | 449,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Howe Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 5,099 @ $319.00 | $1.6M | −7.9% of holding | −11.6% | +24.5% | 59,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $295.00 | $295K | −0.2% of holding | −8.0% | +18.7% | 451,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $293.00 | $293K | −0.2% of holding | −8.0% | +18.7% | 452,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Howe Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 901 @ $319.00 | $287K | −1.4% of holding | −8.5% | +15.8% | 64,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Howe Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $298.00 | $298K | −1.5% of holding | −11.3% | +7.8% | 65,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $277.00 | $2.8M | −2.2% of holding | +3.0% | +21.9% | 453,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Howe Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $269.00 | $404K | −2.2% of holding | +3.0% | +21.9% | 67,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Howe Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $275.00 | $275K | −1.5% of holding | +3.0% | +21.9% | 66,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Sale | 3,811 @ $255.03 | $972K | −6.2% of holding | +7.8% | +24.8% | 58,077 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $250.00 | $1.5M | −8.8% of holding | +23.0% | +28.8% | 61,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
138 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Gift | 0 | 26,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Gift | 650 | 26,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Gift | 1,300 | 357,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Withheld for tax | 29,054 | 358,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sevalia Piyush B | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,701 | 68,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,701 | 68,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,630 | 61,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Pangrazio Vincent P | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,419 | 47,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Howe Elizabeth A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,740 | 65,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,484 | 29,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Frank Edward H. | director | Award / grant | 390 | 11,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | AALAEI FARAJ | director | Award / grant | 390 | 1,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Chitkara Raman | director | Award / grant | 390 | 21,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Heckart Christine | director | Award / grant | 390 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kreindl Torsten | director | Award / grant | 390 | 13,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MOORTHY GANESH | director | Award / grant | 390 | 1,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHUELKE KATHERINE | director | Award / grant | 390 | 12,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Takata Akira | director | Award / grant | 390 | 12,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Gift | 0 | 25,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Withheld for tax | 16,871 | 432,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,049 | 83,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Sevalia Piyush B | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,048 | 78,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,977 | 74,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pangrazio Vincent P | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,438 | 55,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Howe Elizabeth A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,738 | 67,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,484 | 48,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Heckart Christine | director | Gift | 9,305 | 9,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Heckart Christine | director | Gift | 9,305 | 1,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Gift | 17,167 | 31,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Gift | 48,000 | 449,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Gift | 24,000 | 25,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | VASHIST RAJESH | director | Withheld for tax | 14,340 | 497,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Bonnot Lionel | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,869 | 84,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Assaderaghi Fariborz | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,759 | 94,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Sevalia Piyush B | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,758 | 89,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,214 | 49,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Howe Elizabeth A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,928 | 70,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Pangrazio Vincent P | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,843 | 58,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Gift | 900 | 52,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Ahamad Samsheer | officer | Award / grant | 2,728 | 59,310 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.