Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.91 · now $2.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SITC has typically landed between $2.46 and $3.22 — a range of −15.5% to +10.8% from the issuance price $2.91.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SITC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.91 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.89 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.73–$3.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.46–$3.22
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −75.1% | −75.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-23 | −74.9% | −74.9% | +3.1% |
| 2008-09-25 | −74.8% | −74.8% | +4.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-08 | +111.8% | −0.4% | +111.8% |
| 2009-03-30 | +101.5% | +0.0% | +103.9% |
| 2009-03-11 | +100.0% | +0.0% | +100.0% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-23 | Cattonar John M | director | Sale | 8,794 @ $15.22 | $134K | −100.0% of holding | +1.6% | −18.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Sweeney Dawn M. | director | Sale | 7,490 @ $15.40 | $115K | −25.8% of holding | −0.5% | −17.6% | 21,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Sweeney Dawn M. | director | Sale | 3,768 @ $15.54 | $59K | −11.5% of holding | +0.6% | −18.2% | 29,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Lukes David R | director | Sale | 136,008 @ $15.36 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | +2.7% | −25.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Lukes David R | director | Sale | 168,895 @ $15.39 | $2.6M | −55.4% of holding | −1.0% | −25.4% | 136,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Kitlowski Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,916 | 109,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Kitlowski Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,284 | 113,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Scott Jeffrey Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 141 | 12,994 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | Scott Jeffrey Alexander | officer | Code L | 450 | 13,135 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Sweeney Dawn M. | director | Award / grant | 46,373 | 67,965 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Kitlowski Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,566 | 114,382 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Kitlowski Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,880 | 117,948 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Scott Jeffrey Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 275 | 12,685 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-26 | Boston Gary N | director | Other acquisition | 7,857 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-26 | Lukes David R | director | Other acquisition | 2,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | purchase | 2020-04-27 | 2019-06-04 | $1–15K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | sale | 2018-12-11 | 2018-11-19 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.