Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.56 · now $28.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SIRI has typically landed between $23.46 and $33.40 — a range of −17.8% to +16.9% from the issuance price $28.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SIRI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $28.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $28.42 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.49–$30.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.46–$33.4
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-24 | −70.9% | −70.9% | +0.6% |
| 2008-09-25 | −66.2% | −71.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-23 | −62.9% | −62.9% | +1.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-02-11 | +259.9% | +0.0% | +259.9% |
| 2009-02-13 | +219.9% | +0.0% | +219.9% |
| 2009-02-12 | +217.5% | +0.0% | +217.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-04 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,037,199 @ $21.63 | $22.4M | +0.8% of holding | +8.3% | −14.2% | 124,807,117 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-01 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,930,000 @ $21.02 | $40.6M | +1.6% of holding | +7.5% | −13.8% | 123,769,918 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,977,837 @ $21.04 | $41.6M | +1.7% of holding | +11.3% | −11.3% | 121,754,529 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 85,389 @ $21.43 | $1.8M | +0.1% of holding | +11.3% | −11.3% | 121,839,918 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 433,079 @ $23.49 | $10.2M | +0.4% of holding | +0.3% | −12.9% | 119,492,793 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-03 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 283,899 @ $24.05 | $6.8M | +0.2% of holding | +0.3% | −12.9% | 119,776,692 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-31 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 840,000 @ $23.62 | $19.8M | +0.7% of holding | +3.7% | −13.4% | 119,059,714 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 751,141 @ $22.79 | $17.1M | +0.6% of holding | +8.6% | −9.6% | 118,219,714 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,038,051 @ $20.85 | $42.5M | +1.8% of holding | +3.1% | +7.1% | 117,437,247 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-19 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 31,326 @ $21.52 | $674K | +0.0% of holding | +3.1% | +7.1% | 117,468,573 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-18 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 915,527 @ $21.94 | $20.1M | +0.8% of holding | −1.0% | +2.2% | 114,860,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 538,940 @ $22.49 | $12.1M | +0.5% of holding | −1.0% | +2.2% | 115,399,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,440,000 @ $22.13 | $31.9M | +1.3% of holding | −0.8% | +0.1% | 113,944,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.