SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $88.53 · now $88.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SIGI has typically landed between $79.48 and $97.80 — a range of −10.2% to +10.5% from the issuance price $88.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($88.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SIGI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $88.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$79.48worst · -10.2%$97.8best · +10.5%
  • now $88.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.02 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.3–$92.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.48–$97.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-28−41.3%−42.1%+0.0%
2020-02-13−40.9%−40.9%+0.1%
2009-01-27−39.8%−39.8%+4.0%
3 best
2009-07-10+36.3%+0.0%+36.3%
2008-07-15+33.4%+0.0%+33.8%
2008-07-14+33.4%+0.0%+33.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−3.5%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.0%
n=20
Mar
75%
+1.9%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.0%
n=20
May
55%
−0.1%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.4%
n=20
Jul
65%
+0.8%
n=20
Aug
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.1%
n=20
Oct
70%
+5.0%
n=20
Nov
60%
+2.6%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$100$732026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Lanza Michael H2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $93K — Harnett Anthony D.2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $81K — Harnett Anthony D.2026-02-02: 1 insider purchase, $51K — Bacus Lisa R2025-10-24: 1 insider purchase, $206K — Brennan Patrick Sean2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $116K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $206K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $51K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $174K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Lanza Michael H — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Harnett Anthony D. — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed same dayofficer Harnett Anthony D. — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bacus Lisa R — Purchase on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brennan Patrick Sean — Purchase on 2025-10-24, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-28Lanza Michael HofficerSale17,100 @ $94.04$1.6M−50.8% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open16,565Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Harnett Anthony D.officerSale1,064 @ $87.33$93K−6.5% of holding−10.6%−7.0%15,205Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02Harnett Anthony D.officerSale955 @ $85.31$81K−5.9% of holding−1.0%+3.8%15,205Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Bacus Lisa RdirectorPurchase600 @ $84.81$51K+9.7% of holding−1.0%+3.8%6,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-24Brennan Patrick SeanofficerPurchase2,700 @ $76.17$206K+17.7% of holding+2.8%+6.3%17,948Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-01DOHERTY ROBERT KELLYdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $77.00$116K+5.9% of holding−1.2%−2.1%27,110Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-28Marchioni John J.directorPurchase3,200 @ $77.89$249K+2.3% of holding−1.5%−6.0%139,775Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28McCarthy Thomas AdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $77.42$194K+15.4% of holding−1.5%−6.0%18,746Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-25Cavanaugh Terrence WdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $75.72$151K+8.6% of holding−0.8%−2.9%25,295Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-25Eppers JosephofficerPurchase1,402 @ $76.82$108K+12.6% of holding−0.8%−2.9%12,492Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25Harnett Anthony D.officerSale1,352 @ $87.06$118K−7.8% of holding−6.5%−34.7%15,946Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03Marchioni John J.directorPurchase1,180 @ $86.69$102K+0.9% of holding+9.1%−19.5%136,575Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-27Brennan Patrick SeanofficerPurchase3,000 @ $83.15$249K+24.8% of holding+13.5%−18.2%15,082Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-24DOHERTY ROBERT KELLYdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $80.28$120K+6.6% of holding+14.6%−11.4%24,173Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-28Lanza Michael HofficerGift1,10033,665Form 4
2026-05-01Parsons JuliedirectorAward / grant1,7671,767Form 4
2026-05-01McCarthy Thomas AdirectorAward / grant3,0475,659Form 4
2026-05-01Bacus Lisa RdirectorAward / grant1,7678,552Form 4
2026-05-01DOHERTY ROBERT KELLYdirectorAward / grant1,76728,899Form 4
2026-05-01Sampson KatedirectorAward / grant1,7673,221Form 4
2026-05-01Cavanaugh Terrence WdirectorAward / grant3,04728,364Form 4
2026-05-01Aijala Ainar D JRdirectorAward / grant1,76711,065Form 4
2026-05-01Nicholson Cynthia SdirectorAward / grant1,76721,137Form 4
2026-05-01Mills StephendirectorAward / grant1,7678,311Form 4
2026-05-01Mitchell H ElizabethdirectorAward / grant1,76716,076Form 4
2026-05-01SCHEID JOHN STEPHENdirectorAward / grant1,76731,832Form 4
2026-02-06Marchioni John J.directorWithheld for tax9,45212,234Form 4
2026-02-06Lanza Michael HofficerWithheld for tax1,59534,765Form 4
2026-02-06Kamrowski Jeffrey F.officerWithheld for tax1,12879,955Form 4
2026-02-06Eppers JosephofficerWithheld for tax93814,265Form 4
2026-02-06Harnett Anthony D.officerWithheld for tax71116,269Form 4
2026-02-06Marchioni John J.directorAward / grant21,68621,686Form 4
2026-02-06Lanza Michael HofficerAward / grant4,26036,360Form 4
2026-02-06Harnett Anthony D.officerAward / grant1,77516,980Form 4
2026-02-06Eppers JosephofficerAward / grant2,71115,203Form 4
2026-02-06Kamrowski Jeffrey F.officerAward / grant2,90581,083Form 4
2025-11-25Marchioni John J.directorGift15,089154,864Form 4
2025-11-25Marchioni John J.directorGift15,0890Form 4
2025-05-02Nicholson Cynthia SdirectorAward / grant1,42619,342Form 4
2025-05-02Bacus Lisa RdirectorAward / grant1,6666,157Form 4
2025-05-02Coaxum Wole CdirectorAward / grant1,6065,545Form 4
2025-05-02DOHERTY ROBERT KELLYdirectorAward / grant1,42625,604Form 4
2025-05-02Cavanaugh Terrence WdirectorAward / grant2,62423,289Form 4
2025-05-02SCHEID JOHN STEPHENdirectorAward / grant1,42630,036Form 4
2025-05-02Sampson KatedirectorAward / grant1,4261,426Form 4
2025-05-02Aijala Ainar D JRdirectorAward / grant2,6249,270Form 4
2025-05-02McCarthy Thomas AdirectorAward / grant1,4262,583Form 4
2025-05-02Mills StephendirectorAward / grant2,0256,516Form 4
2025-05-02Mitchell H ElizabethdirectorAward / grant1,42614,280Form 4
2025-02-07Marchioni John J.directorWithheld for tax12,23515,090Form 4
2025-02-07Lanza Michael HofficerWithheld for tax1,97532,100Form 4
2025-02-07Hall Brenda MdirectorWithheld for tax1,81214,772Form 4
2025-02-07Senia Vincent MofficerWithheld for tax1,60114,178Form 4
2025-02-07Kamrowski Jeffrey F.officerWithheld for tax1,35877,988Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.