SIGA · TickerCove

SIGASIGA Technologies, Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.10 · now $3.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SIGA has typically landed between $2.44 and $4.08 — a range of −21.4% to +31.5% from the issuance price $3.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$3.1 · 4% of range

$2.87 low$8.29 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.8%

typical move · IQR 17.8%

−21.4%worst (p90)+31.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SIGA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $3.1 (+0.0%)
typical $3.08 (-0.8%)
middle 50% $2.8–$3.35
90% range $2.44–$4.08

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-08-19	−53.1%	−53.1%	+0.0%
2022-08-17	−52.3%	−52.3%	+0.0%
2014-08-05	−52.1%	−53.1%	+1.7%
3 best
2016-06-22	+176.4%	+0.0%	+176.4%
2016-06-24	+164.0%	+0.0%	+176.4%
2016-06-21	+161.4%	−5.4%	+161.4%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.3%

n=20

Feb

55%

+10.7%

n=20

Mar

35%

+0.7%

n=20

Apr

55%

+9.4%

n=20

May

60%

+1.7%

n=20

Jun

50%

−3.2%

n=20

Jul

60%

+10.9%

n=20

Aug

50%

−0.5%

n=20

Sep

65%

−1.1%

n=20

Oct

30%

+4.7%

n=20

Nov

45%

−0.6%

n=20

Dec

50%

−1.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-09	Nemirovsky Julian	director	Disposition	7,235	73,754	Form 4
2026-06-09	Phillips Holly L.	director	Disposition	7,235	73,754	Form 4
2026-06-09	KEANE JOHN M	director	Disposition	7,235	16,881	Form 4
2026-06-09	Marshall Joseph W III	director	Disposition	7,235	246,523	Form 4
2026-06-09	DURNAN JAYMIE A	director	Disposition	7,235	88,754	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nabel Gary J.	director	Disposition	7,235	73,754	Form 4
2026-06-09	Ford Harold Eugene Jr.	director	Disposition	7,235	47,538	Form 4
2026-06-09	Ford Harold Eugene Jr.	director	Award / grant	34,169	34,169	Form 4
2026-06-09	DURNAN JAYMIE A	director	Option exercise	24,116	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nabel Gary J.	director	Option exercise	24,116	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	KEANE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	24,116	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	KEANE JOHN M	director	Award / grant	34,169	34,169	Form 4
2026-06-09	DURNAN JAYMIE A	director	Award / grant	34,169	34,169	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nabel Gary J.	director	Award / grant	34,169	34,169	Form 4
2026-06-09	Marshall Joseph W III	director	Option exercise	24,116	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nemirovsky Julian	director	Option exercise	24,116	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nemirovsky Julian	director	Award / grant	34,169	34,169	Form 4
2026-06-09	Ford Harold Eugene Jr.	director	Option exercise	24,116	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	Marshall Joseph W III	director	Award / grant	34,169	34,169	Form 4
2026-06-09	Phillips Holly L.	director	Option exercise	24,116	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	Phillips Holly L.	director	Award / grant	34,169	34,169	Form 4
2026-06-09	Marshall Joseph W III	director	Option exercise	24,116	253,758	Form 4
2026-06-09	Ford Harold Eugene Jr.	director	Option exercise	24,116	54,773	Form 4
2026-06-09	KEANE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	24,116	24,116	Form 4
2026-06-09	DURNAN JAYMIE A	director	Option exercise	24,116	95,989	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nabel Gary J.	director	Option exercise	24,116	80,989	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nemirovsky Julian	director	Option exercise	24,116	80,989	Form 4
2026-06-09	Phillips Holly L.	director	Option exercise	24,116	80,989	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nabel Gary J.	director	Option exercise	24,116	80,989	Form 4
2026-06-09	DURNAN JAYMIE A	director	Option exercise	24,116	95,989	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nemirovsky Julian	director	Option exercise	24,116	80,989	Form 4
2026-06-09	Phillips Holly L.	director	Option exercise	24,116	80,989	Form 4
2026-06-09	Ford Harold Eugene Jr.	director	Option exercise	24,116	54,773	Form 4
2026-06-09	KEANE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	24,116	24,116	Form 4
2026-06-09	Marshall Joseph W III	director	Option exercise	24,116	253,758	Form 4
2026-03-25	Miller Larry R.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,526	51,912	Form 4
2026-03-25	Miller Larry R.	officer	Option exercise	6,920	55,438	Form 4
2026-03-25	Miller Larry R.	officer	Option exercise	6,920	6,921	Form 4
2026-03-13	Nguyen Diem	director	Withheld for tax	47,029	138,767	Form 4
2026-03-13	Miller Larry R.	officer	Withheld for tax	11,187	48,518	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i