SIGSignet Jewelers Limitedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $102.94 · now $102.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SIG has typically landed between $83.48 and $126.11 — a range of −18.9% to +22.5% from the issuance price $102.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($102.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SIG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $102.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$83.48worst · -18.9%$126.11best · +22.5%
  • now $102.94 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $104.01 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $95.66–$112.37
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $83.48–$126.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−79.4%−79.4%+0.0%
2020-02-24−76.3%−79.0%+0.0%
2020-03-04−73.4%−74.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+93.2%−1.8%+93.2%
2009-03-06+91.9%−2.8%+91.9%
2009-03-12+91.3%+0.0%+91.3%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.1%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.1%
n=19
Apr
47%
+3.7%
n=19
May
42%
−2.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
+2.7%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Aug
58%
+4.8%
n=19
Sep
63%
+5.9%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.9%
n=18
Nov
72%
+4.0%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$105$742026-03-25: 1 insider sale, $623K — Tilzer Brian A2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $623K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Tilzer Brian A — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-25Tilzer Brian AdirectorSale7,000 @ $88.96$623K−35.7% of holding−9.6%not yet — horizon still open12,591Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Branch AndredirectorSale5,679 @ $65.00$369K−46.5% of holding+17.0%+35.9%6,536Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-25McCluskey HelendirectorPurchase1,700 @ $58.86$100K+5.6% of holding+5.0%+53.2%31,916Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-31Symancyk James KevindirectorPurchase15,000 @ $57.45$862K+42.0% of holding+3.6%+47.0%50,710Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-21Ulasewicz EugeniadirectorSale2,492 @ $53.98$135K−9.6% of holding+20.2%+58.9%23,593Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-21Ulasewicz EugeniadirectorSale841 @ $54.57$46K−3.6% of holding+20.2%+58.9%22,752Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

172 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Yoakum JulieofficerWithheld for tax2,6469,599Form 4
2026-08-31Cygielman JamieofficerAward / grant6,4366,436Form 4
2026-08-21Hicks Zackery AdirectorAward / grant920,473Form 4
2026-08-21Graf R. MarkdirectorAward / grant933,650Form 4
2026-08-21Gennette JeffreydirectorAward / grant102,341Form 4
2026-08-21Cividino ClaudiaofficerAward / grant3517,114Form 4
2026-08-21Ciccolini VincentofficerAward / grant2145,257Form 4
2026-08-21Cho Karen LeslieofficerAward / grant318,487Form 4
2026-08-21COCHRAN SANDRA BdirectorAward / grant96,178Form 4
2026-08-21Ulasewicz EugeniadirectorAward / grant926,823Form 4
2026-08-21Tilzer Brian AdirectorAward / grant914,627Form 4
2026-08-21Wilson Donta LdirectorAward / grant913,586Form 4
2026-08-21Yoakum JulieofficerAward / grant5212,245Form 4
2026-08-21Symancyk James KevindirectorAward / grant384149,543Form 4
2026-08-21Ptak StashofficerAward / grant2523,968Form 4
2026-08-21Sagi Raghunandan RofficerAward / grant4711,082Form 4
2026-08-21MCCOLLAM SHARONdirectorAward / grant932,746Form 4
2026-08-21McCluskey HelendirectorAward / grant1639,397Form 4
2026-08-21Hilson Joan MdirectorAward / grant318258,950Form 4
2026-06-26MCCOLLAM SHARONdirectorAward / grant2,01832,737Form 4
2026-06-26COCHRAN SANDRA BdirectorAward / grant2,0186,169Form 4
2026-06-26Gennette JeffreydirectorAward / grant2,0182,331Form 4
2026-06-26Graf R. MarkdirectorAward / grant2,01833,641Form 4
2026-06-26Hicks Zackery AdirectorAward / grant2,01820,464Form 4
2026-06-26McCluskey HelendirectorAward / grant3,63239,381Form 4
2026-06-26Tilzer Brian AdirectorAward / grant2,01814,618Form 4
2026-06-26Ulasewicz EugeniadirectorAward / grant2,01826,814Form 4
2026-06-26Wilson Donta LdirectorAward / grant2,01813,577Form 4
2026-06-26Branch AndredirectorAward / grant2,01810,598Form 4
2026-05-22Ulasewicz EugeniadirectorAward / grant924,796Form 4
2026-05-22Tilzer Brian AdirectorAward / grant912,600Form 4
2026-05-22Yoakum JulieofficerAward / grant5312,193Form 4
2026-05-22Symancyk James KevindirectorAward / grant386149,159Form 4
2026-05-22Sagi Raghunandan RofficerAward / grant4811,034Form 4
2026-05-22Reardon-Sayer NancydirectorAward / grant930,600Form 4
2026-05-22Ptak StashofficerAward / grant2523,943Form 4
2026-05-22McCluskey HelendirectorAward / grant1735,749Form 4
2026-05-22MCCOLLAM SHARONdirectorAward / grant930,719Form 4
2026-05-22Hilson Joan MdirectorAward / grant320258,631Form 4
2026-05-22Hicks Zackery AdirectorAward / grant918,446Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-09-122018-08-29$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-09-122018-08-28$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-09-122018-08-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-08-132018-07-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-08-132018-07-27$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-08-132018-07-26$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-08-132018-07-25$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-08-132018-07-03$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-07-262018-06-11$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-05-152018-04-02$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2018-04-192018-03-29$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2018-02-272018-01-16$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-07-272017-06-12$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-06-152017-05-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.