Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.54 · now $18.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SIBN has typically landed between $15.01 and $23.16 — a range of −19.0% to +24.9% from the issuance price $18.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,967 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SIBN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.54 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.79–$20.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.01–$23.16
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,967 windows spanning 2018-10-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −59.4% | −59.4% | +1.4% |
| 2020-02-19 | −58.7% | −60.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −57.8% | −58.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +66.9% | +0.0% | +66.9% |
| 2020-04-03 | +61.3% | +0.0% | +61.3% |
| 2020-03-20 | +61.0% | +0.0% | +63.5% |
1,967 overlapping windows · 2018-10-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
25%
−0.5%
n=8
Feb
63%
+3.7%
n=8
Mar
25%
−11.3%
n=8
Apr
38%
+2.6%
n=8
May
50%
+3.9%
n=8
Jun
50%
+2.4%
n=8
Jul
50%
+0.8%
n=8
Aug
63%
+5.3%
n=8
Sep
25%
−5.5%
n=8
Oct
43%
−3.0%
n=7
Nov
50%
+0.3%
n=8
Dec
100%
+13.5%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Sale | 18,633 @ $18.91 | $352K | −51.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Sale | 1,367 @ $18.91 | $26K | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 25,972 @ $20.12 | $523K | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 291,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 11,636 @ $20.11 | $234K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 223,284 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 11,228 @ $20.02 | $225K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 234,920 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,923 @ $20.02 | $79K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 317,463 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 51,884 @ $19.46 | $1.0M | −13.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 321,386 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 5,747 @ $19.55 | $112K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 246,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,892 @ $18.66 | $73K | −0.8% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 499,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,652 @ $18.66 | $68K | −0.7% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 495,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,203 @ $18.66 | $60K | −0.6% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 492,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 2,476 @ $18.68 | $46K | −1.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 254,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 2,236 @ $18.68 | $42K | −0.5% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 490,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 2,189 @ $18.62 | $41K | −0.9% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 1,973 @ $18.63 | $37K | −0.4% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 493,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 1,871 @ $18.65 | $35K | −0.7% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 273,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 1,854 @ $18.62 | $35K | −0.7% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 275,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $18.46 | $369K | −55.5% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 1,799 @ $16.70 | $30K | −0.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 278,710 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 1,757 @ $16.80 | $30K | −0.7% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 258,120 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 1,560 @ $16.73 | $26K | −0.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 256,560 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 1,301 @ $16.73 | $22K | −0.5% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 277,375 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 34 @ $16.86 | $573 | −0.0% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 278,676 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Sale | 3,575 @ $15.25 | $55K | −18.2% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,057 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Davis Timothy E JR | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $14.14 | $49K | −5.1% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,722 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Davis Timothy E JR | director | Sale | 3,780 @ $14.47 | $55K | −5.2% of holding | +18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,222 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,893 @ $14.75 | $57K | −0.7% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 540,476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,652 @ $14.75 | $54K | −0.7% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 532,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,203 @ $14.73 | $47K | −0.6% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 503,444 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 2,477 @ $14.71 | $36K | −0.9% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 260,671 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 2,236 @ $14.67 | $33K | −0.4% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 538,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 2,189 @ $14.65 | $32K | −0.8% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 259,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 1,973 @ $14.57 | $29K | −0.4% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 536,267 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 1,872 @ $14.63 | $27K | −0.7% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,968 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 1,854 @ $14.64 | $27K | −0.7% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Sale | 337 @ $13.15 | $4K | −3.5% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,157 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 1,758 @ $12.92 | $23K | −0.7% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 1,560 @ $12.81 | $20K | −0.6% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 263,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 1,301 @ $12.86 | $17K | −0.5% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 34 @ $12.61 | $429 | −0.0% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,840 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 1,799 @ $12.95 | $23K | −0.6% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Nishimura Mika | director | Sale | 4,100 @ $13.83 | $57K | −11.1% of holding | −2.0% | +17.6% | 32,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 39,764 @ $15.29 | $608K | −6.6% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 559,729 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 18,889 @ $15.32 | $289K | −3.1% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 599,493 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 15,569 @ $15.35 | $239K | −2.4% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 622,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 11,569 @ $15.34 | $177K | −3.9% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 287,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | RECUPERO ANTHONY J | officer | Sale | 11,143 @ $15.41 | $172K | −4.3% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 246,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 11,104 @ $15.36 | $171K | −3.9% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 275,611 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 7,888 @ $15.44 | $122K | −1.4% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 546,402 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 3,891 @ $15.41 | $60K | −1.4% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 266,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,893 @ $15.29 | $60K | −0.6% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 618,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 3,296 @ $15.41 | $51K | −1.1% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 300,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 3,203 @ $15.31 | $49K | −0.6% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 556,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 3,065 @ $15.46 | $47K | −1.1% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 270,357 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | RECUPERO ANTHONY J | officer | Sale | 3,065 @ $15.45 | $47K | −1.2% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 243,418 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | RECUPERO ANTHONY J | officer | Sale | 3,040 @ $15.42 | $47K | −1.2% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 259,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Sale | 2,556 @ $15.39 | $39K | −0.8% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 304,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Sale | 2,236 @ $15.29 | $34K | −0.4% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 554,290 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Sale | 2,189 @ $15.29 | $33K | −0.8% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 273,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | RECUPERO ANTHONY J | officer | Sale | 2,091 @ $15.28 | $32K | −0.8% of holding | −12.6% | +12.5% | 262,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
48 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 18,633 | 34,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 1,367 | 36,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 18,633 | 86,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 1,367 | 104,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 36,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 106,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Award / grant | 10,957 | 20,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Davis Timothy E JR | director | Award / grant | 10,957 | 76,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nishimura Mika | director | Award / grant | 10,957 | 43,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Freund John Gordon | director | Award / grant | 10,957 | 54,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | West Thomas A. | director | Award / grant | 10,957 | 37,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | HILLEMAN JERYL L | director | Award / grant | 10,957 | 43,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Davis Timothy E JR | director | Option exercise | 12,064 | 73,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Davis Timothy E JR | director | Option exercise | 12,064 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Hinckley Greg K | director | Option exercise | 3,085 | 105,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Hinckley Greg K | director | Option exercise | 3,085 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Award / grant | 9,787 | 296,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Award / grant | 57,370 | 580,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Award / grant | 57,370 | 637,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | FRANCIS LAURA | director | Award / grant | 114,741 | 523,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Award / grant | 80,994 | 260,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Award / grant | 13,499 | 274,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Maheshwari Anshul | officer | Award / grant | 13,499 | 287,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Award / grant | 58,720 | 287,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Award / grant | 9,787 | 306,730 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 1,241 | 11,548 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 1,241 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 56,852 | 90,307 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 23,148 | 33,455 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 56,852 | 1,241 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Option exercise | 23,148 | 58,093 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | HILLEMAN JERYL L | director | Award / grant | 8,675 | 32,815 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Nishimura Mika | director | Award / grant | 8,675 | 36,816 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Freund John Gordon | director | Award / grant | 8,675 | 43,301 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Wolf Daniel W | director | Award / grant | 8,675 | 25,857 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Hinckley Greg K | director | Award / grant | 8,675 | 102,050 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | West Thomas A. | director | Award / grant | 8,675 | 26,990 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Davis Timothy E JR | director | Award / grant | 8,675 | 60,938 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | DUNN JEFFREY W | director | Award / grant | 8,675 | 21,211 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-30 | PISETSKY MICHAEL A. | officer | Option exercise | 21,367 | 266,245 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.