Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.89 · now $17.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SI has typically landed between $14.83 and $23.67 — a range of −17.1% to +32.3% from the issuance price $17.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
263 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-07-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.13 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.29–$19.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.83–$23.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 263 windows spanning 2025-07-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-09-02 | −25.0% | −25.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-08-27 | −23.3% | −23.3% | +1.6% |
| 2025-09-16 | −22.9% | −23.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-03 | +54.7% | +0.0% | +64.8% |
| 2026-05-27 | +52.2% | −7.6% | +52.2% |
| 2026-06-02 | +51.9% | −1.2% | +62.8% |
263 overlapping windows · 2025-07-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−1.0%
n=1
Feb
0%
−4.2%
n=1
Mar
100%
+7.2%
n=1
Apr
0%
−12.0%
n=1
May
100%
+14.9%
n=1
Jun
100%
+38.0%
n=1
Jul
100%
+12.1%
n=1
Aug
0%
−4.7%
n=2
Sep
0%
−15.0%
n=2
Oct
0%
−6.6%
n=1
Nov
100%
+31.7%
n=1
Dec
0%
−7.4%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Sale | 10,175 @ $18.45 | $188K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 380,824 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,196 @ $22.60 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,185,914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 681 @ $22.62 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,187,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,516 @ $22.61 | $464K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,187,791 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,900 @ $22.60 | $88K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,208,307 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Sale | 12,586 @ $20.94 | $263K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 245,776 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $21.38 | $34K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 244,176 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Sale | 8,314 @ $20.10 | $167K | −3.1% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 258,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,095 @ $22.60 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,212,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,338 @ $22.64 | $166K | −0.3% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,214,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 99,812 @ $22.77 | $2.3M | −4.3% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,221,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,751 @ $22.71 | $244K | −0.5% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,321,452 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,034 @ $22.73 | $455K | −0.9% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,332,203 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 28,245 @ $23.36 | $660K | −1.2% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,352,237 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.26 | $48K | −0.9% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Sale | 1,644 @ $18.20 | $30K | −0.6% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 271,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Sale | 15,856 @ $18.68 | $296K | −5.5% of holding | +14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 273,320 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Purchase | 2,200 @ $15.18 | $33K | +0.8% of holding | −3.9% | +8.3% | 278,866 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $15.00 | $30K | +2.9% of holding | −3.9% | +8.3% | 70,785 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Buchholz Richard | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $14.84 | $15K | +7.9% of holding | −3.9% | +8.3% | 13,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Purchase | 3,900 @ $14.89 | $58K | +3.4% of holding | −7.3% | +19.2% | 118,457 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Purchase | 1,005 @ $14.98 | $15K | +1.9% of holding | −7.3% | +19.2% | 54,445 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Purchase | 3,300 @ $14.83 | $49K | +3.0% of holding | −9.9% | +11.1% | 114,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Purchase | 995 @ $14.65 | $15K | +1.9% of holding | −9.9% | +11.1% | 53,440 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $15.49 | $93K | +5.7% of holding | −23.7% | −5.1% | 111,259 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Purchase | 1,600 @ $15.67 | $25K | +3.1% of holding | −23.7% | −5.1% | 52,445 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $14.90 | $30K | +1.9% of holding | −17.0% | −2.5% | 105,259 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | LSV Associates II, LLC | other | Purchase | 266,666 @ $15.00 | $4.0M | +16.5% of holding | +9.4% | −12.5% | 1,885,136 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Carusi Michael A | director | Purchase | 266,666 @ $15.00 | $4.0M | +16.5% of holding | +9.4% | −12.5% | 1,885,136 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Pardo Geoffrey B | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $15.00 | $1.5M | +4.4% of holding | +9.4% | −12.5% | 2,380,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Gilde Healthcare Holding B.V. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $15.00 | $1.5M | +4.4% of holding | +9.4% | −12.5% | 2,380,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Tansey Casey M | director | Purchase | 40,000 @ $15.00 | $600K | +521.8% of holding | +9.4% | −12.5% | 47,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Buchholz Richard | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $15.00 | $75K | +65.2% of holding | +9.4% | −12.5% | 12,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Purchase | 50 @ $15.00 | $750 | ownership Δ n/a | +9.4% | −12.5% | 50 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
140 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Option exercise | 89,233 | 390,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Option exercise | 89,233 | 92,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Gift | 2,500 | 266,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Sidow Kevin K. | director | Award / grant | 5,046 | 25,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Hykes Andrew | director | Award / grant | 5,046 | 6,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Buchholz Richard | director | Award / grant | 5,046 | 18,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | BUCKMAN PAUL | director | Award / grant | 5,046 | 63,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Tansey Casey M | director | Award / grant | 5,046 | 52,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 300,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 309,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Option exercise | 14,243 | 286,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Option exercise | 7,421 | 272,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Option exercise | 7,421 | 8,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Option exercise | 14,243 | 42,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BUCKMAN PAUL | director | Withheld for tax | 3,714 | 58,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BUCKMAN PAUL | director | Option exercise | 26,205 | 65,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BUCKMAN PAUL | director | Withheld for tax | 3,292 | 62,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BUCKMAN PAUL | director | Option exercise | 19,401 | 39,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Option exercise | 13,264 | 68,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BUCKMAN PAUL | director | Option exercise | 19,401 | 1,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Option exercise | 13,264 | 42,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BUCKMAN PAUL | director | Option exercise | 26,205 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 274,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Option exercise | 2,062 | 276,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 319,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Option exercise | 2,062 | 181,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Award / grant | 88,450 | 88,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Award / grant | 265,351 | 265,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Award / grant | 126,357 | 126,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Blue David Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 88,450 | 88,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Ball Robert Joseph | director | Award / grant | 1,661 | 120,118 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Points Jeffrey S. | officer | Award / grant | 1,076 | 55,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Blue David Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 1,041 | 139,372 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Award / grant | 477 | 215,856 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Blue David Lawrence | officer | Option exercise | 78,616 | 122,553 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Blue David Lawrence | officer | Option exercise | 15,778 | 138,331 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Blue David Lawrence | officer | Option exercise | 15,778 | 12,271 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Blue David Lawrence | officer | Option exercise | 78,616 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Option exercise | 78,616 | 198,936 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Ahearn Matthew Fraser | director | Option exercise | 16,443 | 215,379 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.