SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyBasic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $321.46 · now $321.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SHW has typically landed between $284.88 and $360.04 — a range of −11.4% to +12.0% from the issuance price $321.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($321.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SHW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $321.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$284.88worst · -11.4%$360.04best · +12.0%
  • now $321.46 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $322.53 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $304.63–$340.43
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $284.88–$360.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−30.6%−30.6%+0.5%
2020-02-18−30.6%−30.6%+1.2%
2020-02-13−29.8%−29.8%+1.6%
3 best
2008-07-14+30.7%+0.0%+32.7%
2020-03-18+28.3%−1.5%+28.3%
2020-04-03+26.8%+0.0%+28.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$78.3B
market cap
$10.42
EPS (TTM)
30.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$23.6B
'20'25
Net income$2.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr55.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr3.16
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $321.46$203.16$425.32
  • DCF (intrinsic)$218.48
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$248.69
  • Analyst target · range $330.00–$410.00$380.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$321.46

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
79%
+4.7%
n=19
May
63%
+1.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
63%
+4.1%
n=19
Aug
63%
+2.2%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
89%
+6.0%
n=18
Dec
67%
+0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$373$2932026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $4.8M — Binns Justin T2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $2.9M — Jorgenrud Karl J2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $916K — Young Bryan J2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Davie Colin M.2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $225K — Binns Justin T2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $526K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $7.7M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Binns Justin T — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Jorgenrud Karl J — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Young Bryan J — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Davie Colin M. — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Binns Justin T — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Binns Justin TofficerSale13,500 @ $352.70$4.8M−38.1% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open21,937Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07Jorgenrud Karl JofficerSale7,886 @ $368.30$2.9M−39.8% of holding−10.9%not yet — horizon still open11,944Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24Young Bryan JofficerSale2,513 @ $364.47$916K−20.0% of holding−7.4%−15.5%10,045Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Davie Colin M.officerSale2,976 @ $359.50$1.1M−35.7% of holding−0.7%−9.6%5,365Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Binns Justin TofficerSale609 @ $368.82$225K−3.3% of holding−9.7%−10.9%17,922Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06Lang James P.officerSale860 @ $350.35$301K−69.5% of holding+4.1%−4.3%377Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06Rea Todd DofficerSale4,223 @ $359.16$1.5M−31.2% of holding−6.1%−21.5%9,329Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-27Davie Colin M.officerSale2,799 @ $360.30$1.0M−34.3% of holding+0.5%−7.9%5,365Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

140 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Binns Justin TofficerGift81321,124Form 4
2026-08-17Binns Justin TofficerOption exercise13,50035,437Form 4
2026-08-17Binns Justin TofficerOption exercise13,5000Form 4
2026-08-07Jorgenrud Karl JofficerOption exercise9019,830Form 4
2026-08-07Jorgenrud Karl JofficerOption exercise904,260Form 4
2026-07-06THAMAN MICHAEL HdirectorAward / grant965,713Form 4
2026-07-06Williams ThomasdirectorAward / grant961,262Form 4
2026-07-06Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorAward / grant96586Form 4
2026-07-06ANDERSON KERRII BdirectorAward / grant291,076Form 4
2026-04-06Williams ThomasdirectorAward / grant1071,163Form 4
2026-04-06Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorAward / grant107488Form 4
2026-04-06THAMAN MICHAEL HdirectorAward / grant1075,602Form 4
2026-04-06ANDERSON KERRII BdirectorAward / grant321,045Form 4
2026-02-17Petz Heidi GdirectorWithheld for tax7,49426,468Form 4
2026-02-17Binns Justin TofficerWithheld for tax4,41621,937Form 4
2026-02-17Jorgenrud Karl JofficerWithheld for tax4,37919,740Form 4
2026-02-17GARCEAU MARY LofficerWithheld for tax3,61835,357Form 4
2026-02-17Rea Todd DofficerWithheld for tax1,88312,546Form 4
2026-02-17Young Bryan JofficerWithheld for tax1,38712,558Form 4
2026-02-17Davie Colin M.officerWithheld for tax1,3467,319Form 4
2026-02-17Jaye James RofficerWithheld for tax6395,537Form 4
2026-02-17Boyce Marlena K.officerWithheld for tax4111,285Form 4
2026-02-17Meisenzahl Benjamin E.officerWithheld for tax2966,337Form 4
2026-02-17Lang James P.officerWithheld for tax230861Form 4
2026-02-17Petz Heidi GdirectorAward / grant16,80033,962Form 4
2026-02-17FETTIG JEFF MdirectorAward / grant5587,019Form 4
2026-02-17ANDERSON KERRII BdirectorAward / grant5585,819Form 4
2026-02-17THAMAN MICHAEL HdirectorAward / grant5588,111Form 4
2026-02-17Thornton Matthew IIIdirectorAward / grant55812,854Form 4
2026-02-17Powell AarondirectorAward / grant5583,587Form 4
2026-02-17STEWART MARTA RdirectorAward / grant5583,484Form 4
2026-02-17Williams ThomasdirectorAward / grant5582,371Form 4
2026-02-17Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorAward / grant5581,075Form 4
2026-02-17GARCEAU MARY LofficerAward / grant9,00038,975Form 4
2026-02-17Binns Justin TofficerAward / grant9,90026,353Form 4
2026-02-17Boyce Marlena K.officerAward / grant1,3381,696Form 4
2026-02-17Lang James P.officerAward / grant7141,091Form 4
2026-02-17Davie Colin M.officerAward / grant3,3008,665Form 4
2026-02-17Young Bryan JofficerAward / grant3,90013,945Form 4
2026-02-17Jaye James RofficerAward / grant2,1006,176Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousesale2026-06-082026-05-12$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousesale2026-06-082026-05-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-20$15–50K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.