Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.93 · now $12.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SHOE has typically landed between $10.57 and $14.36 — a range of −18.2% to +11.0% from the issuance price $12.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
65 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SHOE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.08 (-6.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.09–$13.08
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.57–$14.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-11 | −22.1% | −22.1% | +0.7% |
| 2026-08-10 | −19.7% | −20.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-12 | −17.8% | −20.6% | +2.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-21 | +8.8% | −2.0% | +10.4% |
| 2026-07-23 | +8.2% | +0.0% | +12.7% |
| 2026-07-14 | +8.1% | −0.1% | +12.6% |
65 overlapping windows · 2026-05-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
2 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | WEAVER DELORES B | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 166,666 | 4,166,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | WEAVER WAYNE J | director | Gift | 166,666 | 4,166,514 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.