SHO · TickerCove

SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motelas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.00 · now $11.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SHO has typically landed between $9.72 and $12.31 — a range of −11.6% to +11.9% from the issuance price $11.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11 · 74% of range

$8.57 low$11.85 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 8.6%

−11.6%worst (p90)+11.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SHO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11 (+0.0%)
typical $11.03 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $10.56–$11.5
90% range $9.72–$12.31

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-26	−73.8%	−73.8%	+0.0%
2008-09-30	−66.3%	−72.7%	+0.0%
2008-09-25	−65.3%	−65.3%	+3.1%
3 best
2009-04-06	+174.6%	−9.2%	+174.6%
2009-04-08	+170.8%	+0.0%	+195.0%
2009-04-07	+165.6%	+0.0%	+202.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−1.2%

n=20

Feb

55%

−2.0%

n=20

Mar

55%

+2.0%

n=20

Apr

65%

+6.7%

n=20

May

50%

+0.5%

n=20

Jun

45%

−2.2%

n=20

Jul

45%

−1.8%

n=20

Aug

55%

−0.8%

n=20

Sep

40%

−0.2%

n=20

Oct

50%

+0.6%

n=20

Nov

65%

+2.0%

n=20

Dec

70%

+4.5%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-24	Springer Robert C	officer	Sale	89,631 @ $11.62	$1.0M	−13.5% of holding	+0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	573,743	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

90 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-01	BATINOVICH ANDREW	director	Award / grant	9,574	161,904	Form 4
2026-05-01	Digilio Monica S	director	Award / grant	12,234	76,395	Form 4
2026-05-01	Digilio Monica S	director	Award / grant	10,638	87,033	Form 4
2026-05-01	BAIRD W BLAKE	director	Award / grant	10,638	119,420	Form 4
2026-05-01	BARNELLO MICHAEL D	director	Award / grant	12,234	52,717	Form 4
2026-05-01	BARNELLO MICHAEL D	director	Award / grant	8,511	61,228	Form 4
2026-05-01	BATINOVICH ANDREW	director	Award / grant	12,234	152,330	Form 4
2026-05-01	BATINOVICH ANDREW	director	Award / grant	9,574	161,904	Form 4
2026-05-01	BAIRD W BLAKE	director	Award / grant	12,234	108,782	Form 4
2026-05-01	Mims Verett Ann	director	Award / grant	12,234	63,925	Form 4
2026-05-01	Mims Verett Ann	director	Award / grant	8,511	72,436	Form 4
2026-05-01	Leslie Kristina M	director	Award / grant	12,234	63,925	Form 4
2026-05-01	Leslie Kristina M	director	Award / grant	10,638	74,563	Form 4
2026-05-01	BAIRD W BLAKE	director	Award / grant	12,234	108,782	Form 4
2026-05-01	PASQUALE DOUGLAS M	director	Award / grant	18,617	362,120	Form 4
2026-05-01	PASQUALE DOUGLAS M	director	Award / grant	14,894	14,894	Form 4
2026-05-01	BAIRD W BLAKE	director	Award / grant	10,638	119,420	Form 4
2026-05-01	BARNELLO MICHAEL D	director	Award / grant	12,234	52,717	Form 4
2026-05-01	BARNELLO MICHAEL D	director	Award / grant	8,511	61,228	Form 4
2026-05-01	Leslie Kristina M	director	Award / grant	12,234	63,925	Form 4
2026-05-01	Leslie Kristina M	director	Award / grant	10,638	74,563	Form 4
2026-05-01	McCabe Murray J.	director	Award / grant	12,234	121,724	Form 4
2026-05-01	McCabe Murray J.	director	Award / grant	8,511	130,235	Form 4
2026-05-01	Digilio Monica S	director	Award / grant	12,234	76,395	Form 4
2026-05-01	Digilio Monica S	director	Award / grant	10,638	87,033	Form 4
2026-05-01	Mims Verett Ann	director	Award / grant	12,234	63,925	Form 4
2026-05-01	Mims Verett Ann	director	Award / grant	8,511	72,436	Form 4
2026-05-01	McCabe Murray J.	director	Award / grant	12,234	121,724	Form 4
2026-05-01	McCabe Murray J.	director	Award / grant	8,511	130,235	Form 4
2026-05-01	PASQUALE DOUGLAS M	director	Award / grant	18,617	362,120	Form 4
2026-05-01	PASQUALE DOUGLAS M	director	Award / grant	14,894	14,894	Form 4
2026-05-01	BATINOVICH ANDREW	director	Award / grant	12,234	152,330	Form 4
2026-03-07	Springer Robert C	officer	Withheld for tax	3,382	663,374	Form 4
2026-03-07	Giglia Bryan Albert	director	Withheld for tax	3,382	786,416	Form 4
2026-02-15	Giglia Bryan Albert	director	Withheld for tax	30,593	789,798	Form 4
2026-02-15	Springer Robert C	officer	Withheld for tax	22,944	666,756	Form 4
2026-02-15	Reyes Aaron Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	12,114	146,977	Form 4
2026-02-15	Klein David M	officer	Withheld for tax	9,149	237,725	Form 4
2026-02-11	Reyes Aaron Robert	officer	Award / grant	35,912	159,091	Form 4
2026-02-11	Giglia Bryan Albert	director	Award / grant	82,873	820,391	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i