Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.32 · now $3.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SHMD has typically landed between $2.28 and $4.97 — a range of −31.3% to +49.7% from the issuance price $3.32.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
575 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-05-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SHMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.32 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.22 (-3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.71–$3.72
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.28–$4.97
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-13 | −42.4% | −45.3% | +3.3% |
| 2024-12-24 | −41.6% | −41.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-17 | −41.5% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-13 | +127.1% | +0.0% | +132.9% |
| 2025-10-10 | +125.9% | −3.0% | +125.9% |
| 2025-12-17 | +112.2% | −0.5% | +112.2% |
575 overlapping windows · 2024-05-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Speth Ralf | director | Purchase | 33,000 @ $3.05 | $101K | +14.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 269,311 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Speth Ralf | director | Purchase | 35,000 @ $3.25 | $114K | +17.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 236,311 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-30 | Schmid Anette | director | Purchase | 69,000 @ $3.16 | $218K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,749,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Streyl Annedore | director | Sale | 11 @ $6.35 | $72 | −38.7% of holding | −32.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2006-08-28 | Schuetz Arthur Josef Hermann | officer | Purchase | 15,200 @ $3.23 | $49K | +106.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,512 | Form 4 · filed 7308 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
21 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Schmid Christian Mathias | director | Gift | 330,000 | 15,755,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Schmid Christian Mathias | director | Gift | 500,000 | 16,085,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Rauch Helmut | other | Gift | 500,000 | 531,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schuetz Arthur Josef Hermann | officer | Award / grant | 24,000 | 24,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Anette | director | Other acquisition | 2,190,589 | 13,680,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Anette | director | Other acquisition | 2,190,589 | 2,190,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Anette | director | Disposition | 2,190,589 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Christian Mathias | director | Disposition | 1,265,322 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Christian Mathias | director | Other acquisition | 1,265,322 | 16,585,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Christian Mathias | director | Other acquisition | 1,265,322 | 1,265,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Anette | director | Other acquisition | 1,028,074 | 1,028,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Christian Mathias | director | Award / grant | 37,150 | 37,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Rauch Helmut | other | Award / grant | 34,591 | 34,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Anette | director | Award / grant | 24,247 | 24,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Anette | director | Award / grant | 18,782 | 18,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Speth Ralf | director | Award / grant | 16,311 | 201,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schmid Christian Mathias | director | Award / grant | 13,840 | 13,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Schuetz Arthur Josef Hermann | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,688 | 14,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Streyl Annedore | director | Award / grant | 11,368 | 11,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Yoon Boo Keun | director | Award / grant | 8,897 | 26,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Rauch Helmut | other | Award / grant | 24,000 | 58,591 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.