Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.59 · now $11.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SHEN has typically landed between $9.46 and $13.82 — a range of −18.4% to +19.3% from the issuance price $11.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SHEN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.39 (-1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.46–$12.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.46–$13.82
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-07-22 | −39.0% | −39.0% | +0.0% |
| 2016-07-29 | −38.6% | −39.1% | +0.0% |
| 2016-07-28 | −38.4% | −38.4% | +1.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-09 | +57.8% | +0.0% | +65.4% |
| 2024-05-01 | +45.6% | +0.0% | +45.6% |
| 2013-09-06 | +44.9% | +0.0% | +44.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | VOLK JAMES J | officer | Purchase | 4,186 @ $11.67 | $49K | +4.7% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,574 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | McKay Edward H | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $12.14 | $24K | +1.5% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,007 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | VOLK JAMES J | officer | Purchase | 97 @ $11.84 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,671 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,803 @ $13.34 | $24K | +0.1% of holding | −3.8% | +6.9% | 3,457,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,803 @ $13.34 | $24K | +0.1% of holding | −3.8% | +6.9% | 3,457,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,541 @ $13.29 | $180K | +0.4% of holding | −4.5% | +9.5% | 3,455,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,541 @ $13.29 | $180K | +0.4% of holding | −4.5% | +9.5% | 3,455,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 362 @ $13.39 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | −2.8% | +3.0% | 3,441,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 362 @ $13.39 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | −2.8% | +3.0% | 3,441,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 147 @ $13.46 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −4.5% | +3.9% | 3,441,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 147 @ $13.46 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −4.5% | +3.9% | 3,441,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,000 @ $13.45 | $40K | +0.1% of holding | −4.4% | +3.5% | 3,441,252 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,000 @ $13.45 | $40K | +0.1% of holding | −4.4% | +3.5% | 3,441,252 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,068 @ $12.96 | $27K | +0.1% of holding | +1.9% | +13.4% | 3,438,252 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,068 @ $12.96 | $27K | +0.1% of holding | +1.9% | +13.4% | 3,438,252 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $12.79 | $384K | +0.9% of holding | −0.6% | +15.3% | 3,436,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $12.79 | $384K | +0.9% of holding | −0.6% | +15.3% | 3,436,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 28,951 @ $13.01 | $377K | +0.9% of holding | −2.9% | +14.2% | 3,406,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 28,951 @ $13.01 | $377K | +0.9% of holding | −2.9% | +14.2% | 3,406,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 12,000 @ $13.25 | $159K | +0.4% of holding | −2.3% | +3.0% | 3,377,233 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 12,000 @ $13.25 | $159K | +0.4% of holding | −2.3% | +3.0% | 3,377,233 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 14,358 @ $13.26 | $190K | +0.4% of holding | −2.3% | −0.7% | 3,365,233 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 14,358 @ $13.26 | $190K | +0.4% of holding | −2.3% | −0.7% | 3,365,233 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $13.35 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | −3.6% | −4.1% | 3,350,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $13.35 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | −3.6% | −4.1% | 3,350,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,053 @ $13.27 | $94K | +0.2% of holding | −2.9% | −1.1% | 3,350,675 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,053 @ $13.27 | $94K | +0.2% of holding | −2.9% | −1.1% | 3,350,675 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,500 @ $13.10 | $20K | +0.0% of holding | −3.3% | −5.1% | 3,343,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,500 @ $13.10 | $20K | +0.0% of holding | −3.3% | −5.1% | 3,343,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,000 @ $13.09 | $52K | +0.1% of holding | +0.0% | −4.3% | 3,342,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,000 @ $13.09 | $52K | +0.1% of holding | +0.0% | −4.3% | 3,342,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,059 @ $12.66 | $115K | +0.3% of holding | +2.9% | −2.3% | 3,338,122 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,059 @ $12.66 | $115K | +0.3% of holding | +2.9% | −2.3% | 3,338,122 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,433 @ $12.52 | $193K | +0.5% of holding | +5.5% | −0.1% | 3,329,063 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,433 @ $12.52 | $193K | +0.5% of holding | +5.5% | −0.1% | 3,329,063 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,560 @ $12.54 | $132K | +0.3% of holding | +9.8% | +0.5% | 3,313,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,560 @ $12.54 | $132K | +0.3% of holding | +9.8% | +0.5% | 3,313,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,047 @ $12.52 | $251K | +0.6% of holding | +10.5% | −0.8% | 3,303,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,047 @ $12.52 | $251K | +0.6% of holding | +10.5% | −0.8% | 3,303,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,473 @ $12.87 | $19K | +0.0% of holding | +3.3% | −6.1% | 3,283,023 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,473 @ $12.87 | $19K | +0.0% of holding | +3.3% | −6.1% | 3,283,023 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $12.59 | $378K | +0.9% of holding | +5.1% | −8.1% | 3,281,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $12.59 | $378K | +0.9% of holding | +5.1% | −8.1% | 3,281,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $11.88 | $356K | +0.9% of holding | +9.2% | −1.9% | 3,251,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $11.88 | $356K | +0.9% of holding | +9.2% | −1.9% | 3,251,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | FRENCH CHRISTOPHER E | officer | Purchase | 16,800 @ $11.83 | $199K | +4.3% of holding | +9.2% | −1.9% | 410,517 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $12.52 | $376K | +0.9% of holding | +10.0% | −6.0% | 3,221,550 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $12.52 | $376K | +0.9% of holding | +10.0% | −6.0% | 3,221,550 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,104 @ $12.71 | $319K | +0.8% of holding | +4.4% | −13.0% | 3,191,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,104 @ $12.71 | $319K | +0.8% of holding | +4.4% | −13.0% | 3,191,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,085 @ $13.01 | $287K | +0.7% of holding | +1.5% | −13.0% | 3,166,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,085 @ $13.01 | $287K | +0.7% of holding | +1.5% | −13.0% | 3,166,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 26,117 @ $13.12 | $343K | +0.8% of holding | −4.6% | −20.6% | 3,144,361 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 26,117 @ $13.12 | $343K | +0.8% of holding | −4.6% | −20.6% | 3,144,361 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | ECP Fiber Holdings GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,703 @ $13.00 | $308K | +0.8% of holding | −3.1% | −17.7% | 3,118,244 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | ECP ControlCo, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,703 @ $13.00 | $308K | +0.8% of holding | −3.1% | −17.7% | 3,118,244 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
244 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | QUAGLIO KENNETH L | director | Award / grant | 81 | 34,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | BARNES VICTOR CHRISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 66 | 24,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | SCHULTZ LEIGH ANN | director | Award / grant | 54 | 34,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Koontz Richard L Jr | director | Award / grant | 40 | 71,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Rhymes Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 40 | 11,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Beckett Thomas | director | Award / grant | 32 | 30,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | QUAGLIO KENNETH L | director | Award / grant | 83 | 34,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | BARNES VICTOR CHRISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 68 | 24,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHULTZ LEIGH ANN | director | Award / grant | 56 | 34,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Rhymes Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 42 | 11,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Koontz Richard L Jr | director | Award / grant | 42 | 71,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Beckett Thomas | director | Award / grant | 33 | 30,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BARNES VICTOR CHRISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 54 | 24,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHULTZ LEIGH ANN | director | Award / grant | 44 | 34,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Koontz Richard L Jr | director | Award / grant | 33 | 71,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Rhymes Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 33 | 11,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | QUAGLIO KENNETH L | director | Award / grant | 28 | 34,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Beckett Thomas | director | Award / grant | 27 | 30,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Rinklin Matthew | director | Award / grant | 5,376 | 5,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | GCM Grosvenor Inc. | director | Award / grant | 5,376 | 5,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BARNES VICTOR CHRISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 51 | 24,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHULTZ LEIGH ANN | director | Award / grant | 42 | 34,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Koontz Richard L Jr | director | Award / grant | 31 | 71,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Rhymes Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 31 | 11,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | QUAGLIO KENNETH L | director | Award / grant | 26 | 34,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Beckett Thomas | director | Award / grant | 25 | 30,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | BARNES VICTOR CHRISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 52 | 24,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | SCHULTZ LEIGH ANN | director | Award / grant | 42 | 34,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | QUAGLIO KENNETH L | director | Award / grant | 40 | 34,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Koontz Richard L Jr | director | Award / grant | 32 | 71,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Rhymes Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 32 | 11,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beckett Thomas | director | Award / grant | 25 | 30,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | John W Flora | director | Option exercise | 9,863 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fitzsimmons Tracy | director | Option exercise | 9,863 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fitzsimmons Tracy | director | Option exercise | 9,863 | 63,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | John W Flora | director | Option exercise | 9,863 | 66,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | John W Flora | director | Option exercise | 9,863 | 66,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fitzsimmons Tracy | director | Option exercise | 9,863 | 63,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Fitzsimmons Tracy | director | Award / grant | 68 | 53,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | BARNES VICTOR CHRISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 53 | 24,438 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.