Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.21 · now $52.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SHAZ has typically landed between $16.62 and $90.43 — a range of −68.2% to +73.2% from the issuance price $52.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
164 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-12-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SHAZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $52.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $52.21 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.59–$68.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.62–$90.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-29 | −81.1% | −81.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | −79.9% | −81.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-02 | −79.4% | −81.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-30 | +110.2% | +0.0% | +110.2% |
| 2026-04-08 | +106.5% | +0.0% | +107.7% |
| 2026-04-07 | +104.7% | −1.4% | +104.7% |
164 overlapping windows · 2025-12-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
7 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Goel Anuj | officer | Award / grant | 13,426 | 13,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Situational Awareness LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 3,700,000 | 5,396,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Situational Awareness LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 3,700,000 | 2,674,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Penn Andrew Richard | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Penn Andrew Richard | director | Award / grant | 6,944 | 46,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | HUGHES-JONES NICHOLAS JEREMY | officer | Other acquisition | 90,893 | 1,251,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Adams Benjamin Carlton | director | Award / grant | 10,973 | 10,973 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.