SGP · TickerCove

SGPSpyGlass Pharma, Inc. Common Stockas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.60 · now $28.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SGP has typically landed between $21.90 and $38.10 — a range of −23.4% to +33.2% from the issuance price $28.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

120 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-02-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$28.6 · 91% of range

$17.56 low$29.68 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Distribution ranges onlyiThis name has too little trading history to publish a calibrated probability, so we show its distribution ranges only — no directional call. Its record is still building.

No directional probability — ranges below.

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.0%

typical move · IQR 22.7%

−23.4%worst (p90)+33.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SGP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $28.6 (+0.0%)
typical $27.75 (-3.0%)
middle 50% $24.5–$31
90% range $21.9–$38.1

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 120 windows spanning 2026-02-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-05-07	−26.2%	−27.8%	+0.0%
2026-05-12	−25.1%	−25.6%	+0.5%
2026-05-06	−25.1%	−26.9%	+1.3%
3 best
2026-07-20	+44.8%	+0.0%	+44.8%
2026-07-17	+43.0%	+0.0%	+43.0%
2026-07-21	+42.8%	+0.0%	+43.0%

120 overlapping windows · 2026-02-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Purchase	3,441,966 @ $16.00	$55.1M	+136.3% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	5,966,439	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Behbahani Ali	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Mathers Edward T	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Florence Anthony A. Jr.	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	BASKETT FOREST	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	New Enterprise Associates 17, L.P.	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Yang Rick	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Makhzoumi Mohamad	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	SANDELL SCOTT D	director	Purchase	937,500 @ $16.00	$15.0M	+18.4% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	6,035,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Pardo Geoffrey B	director	Purchase	312,500 @ $16.00	$5.0M	+16.7% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	2,187,513	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Purchase	248,034 @ $16.00	$4.0M	+13.7% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	2,054,678	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Nielsen Kirk G.	director	Purchase	165,000 @ $16.00	$2.6M	+5.2% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	3,310,619	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09	Vensana Capital I GP, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	165,000 @ $16.00	$2.6M	+5.2% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	3,310,619	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09	Khan Bilal Arshad	director	Purchase	115,000 @ $16.00	$1.8M	+84.3% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	251,427	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Khan Bilal Arshad	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $16.00	$320K	+367.0% of holding	+6.1%	−8.8%	25,450	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

283 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-09	Pardo Geoffrey B	director	Conversion	1,875,013	1,875,013	Form 4
2026-02-09	Vensana Capital I GP, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	3,142,015	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Vensana Capital I GP, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	3,142,015	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Vensana Capital I GP, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	2,059,573	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Conversion	1,806,644	1,806,644	Form 4
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Conversion	1,150,941	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Conversion	767,294	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Conversion	1,150,941	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Conversion	767,294	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Conversion	222,591	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Conversion	272,056	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Conversion	2,524,473	2,524,473	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	1,370,168	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	737,962	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	954,990	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	402,273	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	1,619,240	1,619,240	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	1,370,168	2,989,408	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	1,370,168	4,359,576	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	737,962	5,097,538	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	1,370,168	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	1,370,168	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	737,962	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	954,990	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	1,619,240	1,619,240	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	1,370,168	2,989,408	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	1,370,168	4,359,576	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	737,962	5,097,538	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	954,990	954,990	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	402,273	1,357,263	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	1,619,240	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Walker Paul Edward	director	Conversion	1,370,168	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	954,990	954,990	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	402,273	1,357,263	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	1,619,240	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Yang Rick	director	Conversion	1,370,168	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Yang Rick	director	Conversion	1,370,168	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Yang Rick	director	Conversion	737,962	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chang Carmen	director	Conversion	402,273	0	Form 4
2026-02-09	Mathers Edward T	director	Conversion	1,619,240	1,619,240	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.