SGMTSagimet Biosciences Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.46 · now $10.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SGMT has typically landed between $6.14 and $17.49 — a range of −41.3% to +67.2% from the issuance price $10.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

774 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-07-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SGMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.14worst · -41.3%$17.49best · +67.2%
  • now $10.46 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.21 (-2.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.36–$12.06
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.14–$17.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 774 windows spanning 2023-07-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-01-23−61.6%−65.7%+0.0%
2023-09-20−60.6%−60.6%+0.0%
2023-10-13−59.7%−59.7%+6.9%
3 best
2023-12-20+201.7%−11.0%+225.5%
2023-12-19+192.3%−20.0%+192.3%
2025-05-22+188.3%−1.5%+188.3%

774 overlapping windows · 2023-07-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
+22.8%
n=3
Feb
33%
−16.7%
n=3
Mar
0%
−10.8%
n=3
Apr
67%
+10.4%
n=3
May
67%
+10.1%
n=3
Jun
67%
+28.3%
n=3
Jul
33%
+1.4%
n=3
Aug
25%
−0.5%
n=4
Sep
25%
−11.0%
n=4
Oct
67%
+17.2%
n=3
Nov
67%
−0.1%
n=3
Dec
33%
+1.0%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$11$52026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $3.6M — Kemble George2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $201K — Kemble George2026-07-20: 3 insider sales, $719K — Happel David, Kemble George, Rozek Elizabeth2026-02-10: 4 insider sales, $105K — Happel David, Martins Eduardo Bruno, Rozek Elizabeth, Chauche Thierry2025-11-20: 1 insider sale, $290K — Kemble George2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $290K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $105K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $719K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $3.8M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kemble George — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Kemble George — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Happel David — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kemble George — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rozek Elizabeth — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Happel David — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Martins Eduardo Bruno — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rozek Elizabeth — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Chauche Thierry — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kemble George — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Kemble GeorgedirectorSale350,987 @ $10.23$3.6M−85.0% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open62,161Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-11Kemble GeorgedirectorSale20,206 @ $9.95$201K−24.5% of holding+17.8%not yet — horizon still open62,161Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-20Happel DaviddirectorSale64,051 @ $7.76$497K−8.0% of holding+44.3%not yet — horizon still open741,570Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-20Kemble GeorgedirectorSale18,844 @ $7.46$141K−23.3% of holding+44.3%not yet — horizon still open62,161Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-20Rozek ElizabethofficerSale10,545 @ $7.76$82K−4.5% of holding+44.3%not yet — horizon still open224,414Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Happel DaviddirectorSale12,101 @ $5.36$65K−1.8% of holding−1.6%+54.3%677,621Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Martins Eduardo BrunoofficerSale3,640 @ $5.36$20K−3.4% of holding−1.6%+54.3%103,296Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Rozek ElizabethofficerSale2,622 @ $5.36$14K−1.4% of holding−1.6%+54.3%190,959Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Chauche ThierryofficerSale1,312 @ $5.36$7K−7.7% of holding−1.6%+54.3%15,688Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-20Kemble GeorgedirectorSale37,688 @ $7.69$290K−31.8% of holding−19.4%−16.4%81,005Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21Happel DaviddirectorSale65,478 @ $9.13$598K−8.7% of holding−23.5%−37.3%689,722Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-21Rozek ElizabethofficerSale10,780 @ $9.13$98K−5.5% of holding−23.5%−37.3%183,726Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-21Martins Eduardo BrunoofficerSale8,277 @ $9.13$76K−7.2% of holding−23.5%−37.3%106,936Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

45 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Kemble GeorgedirectorOption exercise326,618388,779Form 4
2026-08-14Kemble GeorgedirectorOption exercise24,369413,148Form 4
2026-08-14Kemble GeorgedirectorOption exercise326,61831,455Form 4
2026-08-14Kemble GeorgedirectorOption exercise24,36911,608Form 4
2026-08-11Kemble GeorgedirectorOption exercise10,45582,367Form 4
2026-08-11Kemble GeorgedirectorOption exercise9,75171,912Form 4
2026-08-11Kemble GeorgedirectorOption exercise10,45535,977Form 4
2026-08-11Kemble GeorgedirectorOption exercise9,751358,073Form 4
2026-06-12Phillips Anne M.directorAward / grant39,56739,567Form 4
2026-06-12GRAMMER ELIZABETH AdirectorAward / grant39,56739,567Form 4
2026-06-12Hoelscher Paul W.directorAward / grant39,56739,567Form 4
2026-06-12Jarrett JenniferdirectorAward / grant39,56739,567Form 4
2026-06-12Kemble GeorgedirectorAward / grant39,56739,567Form 4
2026-06-12SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorAward / grant39,56739,567Form 4
2026-05-28Rozek ElizabethofficerAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2026-05-28Happel DaviddirectorAward / grant300,000300,000Form 4
2026-05-28Grauer AndreasofficerAward / grant35,00035,000Form 4
2026-05-28Chauche ThierryofficerAward / grant50,00050,000Form 4
2026-04-20Grauer AndreasofficerAward / grant264,759264,759Form 4
2026-02-19Chauche ThierryofficerAward / grant44,00059,688Form 4
2026-02-19Martins Eduardo BrunoofficerAward / grant44,000147,296Form 4
2026-02-19Martins Eduardo BrunoofficerAward / grant88,00088,000Form 4
2026-02-19Happel DaviddirectorAward / grant256,000256,000Form 4
2026-02-19Rozek ElizabethofficerAward / grant44,000234,959Form 4
2026-02-19Rozek ElizabethofficerAward / grant88,00088,000Form 4
2026-02-19Chauche ThierryofficerAward / grant88,00088,000Form 4
2026-02-19Happel DaviddirectorAward / grant128,000805,621Form 4
2025-11-04Rozek ElizabethofficerAward / grant9,855193,581Form 4
2025-11-04Rozek ElizabethofficerAward / grant13,36713,367Form 4
2025-06-09SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorAward / grant32,25032,250Form 4
2025-06-09GRAMMER ELIZABETH AdirectorAward / grant32,25032,250Form 4
2025-06-09Kemble GeorgedirectorAward / grant32,25032,250Form 4
2025-06-09Phillips Anne M.directorAward / grant27,26827,268Form 4
2025-06-09Walbert Timothy PdirectorAward / grant32,25032,250Form 4
2025-06-09Hoelscher Paul W.directorAward / grant32,25032,250Form 4
2025-06-09Jarrett JenniferdirectorAward / grant27,26827,268Form 4
2025-06-06SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorAward / grant28,52228,522Form 4
2025-02-06Martins Eduardo BrunoofficerAward / grant34,000115,213Form 4
2025-02-06Martins Eduardo BrunoofficerAward / grant138,000138,000Form 4
2025-02-06Rozek ElizabethofficerAward / grant34,000194,506Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.