SGISomnigroup International Incas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $64.21 · now $64.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SGI has typically landed between $54.20 and $75.14 — a range of −15.6% to +17.0% from the issuance price $64.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($64.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SGI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $64.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$54.2worst · -15.6%$75.14best · +17.0%
  • now $64.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $64.99 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.59–$69.38
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $54.2–$75.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−74.6%−74.6%+0.0%
2020-02-14−65.2%−65.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−64.9%−74.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-09+111.0%+0.0%+131.4%
2009-03-05+92.0%−17.1%+92.0%
2009-03-06+88.7%−12.4%+102.8%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.3%
n=18
Feb
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Mar
53%
−2.9%
n=19
Apr
58%
+5.4%
n=19
May
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Jun
68%
+0.2%
n=19
Jul
79%
+9.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Oct
39%
−1.7%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.5%
n=18
Dec
72%
+4.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$98$612026-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $1.9M — THOMPSON SCOTT L2026-05-22: 2 insider sales, $446K — Rusing Steven H …2025-12-02: 2 insider purchases, $3.0M — Dyer Simon …2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $522K — Gates Cathy R.2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $5.7M — BUSTER H CLIFFORD III2025-08-13: 3 insider sales, $7.5M — Rao Bhaskar …2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $13.2M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $522K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $3.0M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $446K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $1.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector THOMPSON SCOTT L — Purchase on 2026-08-27, filed same dayofficer Rusing Steven H — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rusing Steven H — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Dyer Simon — Purchase on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dyer Simon — Purchase on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gates Cathy R. — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer BUSTER H CLIFFORD III — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rao Bhaskar — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rao Bhaskar — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rao Bhaskar — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27THOMPSON SCOTT LdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $62.84$1.9M+0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,123,634Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-22Rusing Steven HofficerSale5,357 @ $66.79$358K−1.7% of holding+15.8%not yet — horizon still open300,960Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22Rusing Steven HofficerSale1,300 @ $67.48$88K−0.4% of holding+15.8%not yet — horizon still open299,660Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-02Dyer SimondirectorPurchase29,652 @ $93.34$2.8M+617.8% of holding−4.8%−36.2%34,452Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02Dyer SimondirectorPurchase2,348 @ $94.17$221K+6.8% of holding−4.8%−36.2%36,800Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-05Gates Cathy R.directorSale6,016 @ $86.85$522K−13.5% of holding−7.1%−12.4%38,575Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-19BUSTER H CLIFFORD IIIofficerSale70,134 @ $81.20$5.7M−25.0% of holding+2.4%+2.7%210,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Rao BhaskarofficerSale76,876 @ $78.54$6.0M−18.9% of holding+2.1%+8.3%330,684Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Rao BhaskarofficerSale18,812 @ $78.32$1.5M−4.4% of holding+2.1%+8.3%407,560Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Rao BhaskarofficerSale203 @ $79.07$16K−0.1% of holding+2.1%+8.3%330,481Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11MONTGOMERY DAVIDofficerSale45,826 @ $65.67$3.0M−4.8% of holding+6.3%+27.3%914,021Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11MONTGOMERY DAVIDofficerSale30,182 @ $65.69$2.0M−3.3% of holding+6.3%+27.3%883,839Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11BUSTER H CLIFFORD IIIofficerSale22,092 @ $65.80$1.5M−7.2% of holding+6.3%+27.3%286,155Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

287 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant9,2219,221Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant65,55665,556Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant29,13629,136Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant55,92355,923Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant55,92355,923Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant37,28237,282Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant8,0098,009Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant5,9535,953Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant8,9788,978Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant4,9924,992Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant4,9924,992Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant1,1091,109Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant10,82510,825Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant10,82510,825Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant6,1486,148Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant8,9788,978Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant4,9924,992Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant4,9924,992Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant1,1091,109Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant10,82510,825Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant10,82510,825Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant4,8114,811Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant9,2229,222Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant9,2219,221Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant6,1486,148Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant8,0098,009Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant5,9535,953Form 4
2026-08-26HAGALE JAMES TYSONofficerAward / grant8,9788,978Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant39,10539,105Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant74,83574,835Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant4,2394,239Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant48,36948,369Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant48,36948,369Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant10,74910,749Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant65,55665,556Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant65,55665,556Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant29,13629,136Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant55,92355,923Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant55,92355,923Form 4
2026-08-26GLASSMAN KARL GdirectorAward / grant37,28237,282Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-31$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-16$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-13$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-09$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-03-102026-02-09$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-02-022026-01-22$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-02-022026-01-12$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-10-062025-09-19$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.