Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.62 · now $6.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SG has typically landed between $4.56 and $9.16 — a range of −31.1% to +38.4% from the issuance price $6.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,189 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.38 (-3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.45–$7.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.56–$9.16
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,189 windows spanning 2021-11-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-05-19 | −46.6% | −46.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-19 | −45.7% | −53.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-18 | −45.2% | −49.9% | +7.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-23 | +123.6% | −1.9% | +123.6% |
| 2024-02-22 | +120.5% | −1.3% | +120.5% |
| 2024-02-21 | +119.7% | −0.8% | +119.7% |
1,189 overlapping windows · 2021-11-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+0.7%
n=5
Feb
20%
−10.7%
n=5
Mar
60%
+23.6%
n=5
Apr
40%
−3.0%
n=5
May
60%
+7.6%
n=5
Jun
40%
−0.9%
n=5
Jul
40%
+0.7%
n=5
Aug
60%
−0.7%
n=5
Sep
40%
−2.8%
n=5
Oct
50%
−7.7%
n=4
Nov
50%
−3.8%
n=4
Dec
40%
−10.8%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | McConnell Jamie | officer | Sale | 15,033 @ $6.21 | $93K | −6.7% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,489 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Cochran Jason Miles | officer | Sale | 4,809 @ $6.21 | $30K | −2.3% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Cochran Jason Miles | officer | Sale | 15,038 @ $7.99 | $120K | +7.6% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | McConnell Jamie | officer | Sale | 1,401 @ $8.00 | $11K | +0.6% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 225,522 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 566,000 @ $5.69 | $3.2M | +5.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,871,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 11,243 @ $5.69 | $64K | +0.1% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,882,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 2,063 @ $5.66 | $12K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,885,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 1,603 @ $5.66 | $9K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,886,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 1,496 @ $5.69 | $9K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,889,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 1,502 @ $5.65 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,888,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 1,233 @ $5.66 | $7K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,890,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 1,020 @ $5.69 | $6K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,891,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 951 @ $5.66 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,892,813 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 901 @ $5.66 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,894,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 901 @ $5.66 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,893,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 721 @ $5.66 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,895,336 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 600 @ $5.65 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,895,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 375 @ $5.69 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,896,311 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 366 @ $5.69 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,896,677 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 341 @ $5.69 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,897,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 300 @ $5.67 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,897,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 295 @ $5.69 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,897,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 290 @ $5.69 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,897,903 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 288 @ $5.72 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,898,191 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 272 @ $5.65 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,898,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 260 @ $5.63 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,898,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 221 @ $5.65 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,898,944 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 201 @ $5.67 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,899,145 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 200 @ $5.67 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,899,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 200 @ $5.66 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,899,345 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 196 @ $5.61 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,899,741 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 188 @ $5.61 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,899,929 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 166 @ $5.69 | $945 | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,900,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | other | Purchase | 160 @ $5.70 | $912 | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,900,255 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Purchase | 4,428 @ $5.71 | $25K | +24.4% of holding | +2.7% | +2.1% | 22,543 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Neman Jonathan | director | Purchase | 179,800 @ $5.56 | $1000K | ownership Δ n/a | +35.4% | +41.9% | 179,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Purchase | 8,975 @ $5.57 | $50K | +98.2% of holding | +35.4% | +41.9% | 18,115 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Purchase | 9,140 @ $5.45 | $50K | ownership Δ n/a | +35.4% | +41.9% | 9,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 11,530 @ $9.19 | $106K | −3.4% of holding | −8.6% | −43.2% | 322,891 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | BURROWS CLIFFORD | director | Purchase | 19,200 @ $13.11 | $252K | ownership Δ n/a | −6.2% | −61.8% | 19,200 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 10,088 @ $15.23 | $154K | −2.9% of holding | −19.2% | −73.0% | 334,421 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $21.07 | $84K | −1.1% of holding | −35.5% | −87.8% | 344,509 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Neman Jonathan | director | Sale | 5,717 @ $23.80 | $136K | −0.3% of holding | −10.1% | −80.3% | 1,810,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Williams Rossann | officer | Sale | 4,977 @ $23.80 | $118K | −5.0% of holding | −10.1% | −80.3% | 95,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 4,109 @ $23.80 | $98K | −1.2% of holding | −10.1% | −80.3% | 350,023 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $23.88 | $96K | −1.1% of holding | −10.1% | −80.3% | 350,023 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Sale | 2,123 @ $23.80 | $51K | −0.1% of holding | −10.1% | −80.3% | 1,763,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Ru Nathaniel | director | Sale | 2,123 @ $23.80 | $51K | −0.1% of holding | −10.1% | −80.3% | 1,785,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Sale | 7,400 @ $25.05 | $185K | −100.0% of holding | −7.3% | −80.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Ru Nathaniel | director | Sale | 7,400 @ $25.05 | $185K | −100.0% of holding | −7.3% | −80.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Neman Jonathan | director | Sale | 7,400 @ $25.05 | $185K | −100.0% of holding | −7.3% | −80.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 6,926 @ $27.18 | $188K | −2.0% of holding | +4.5% | −66.9% | 344,055 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 3,600 @ $25.00 | $90K | −1.0% of holding | +4.5% | −66.9% | 351,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 200 @ $26.96 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | +4.5% | −66.9% | 350,981 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 200 @ $25.73 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | +4.5% | −66.9% | 351,181 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 6,400 @ $32.92 | $211K | −1.8% of holding | −20.5% | −63.1% | 352,581 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Reback Mitch | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $33.99 | $54K | −0.5% of holding | −20.5% | −63.1% | 350,981 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Neman Jonathan | director | Sale | 170,199 @ $37.73 | $6.4M | −8.8% of holding | −1.8% | −63.8% | 1,760,029 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Sale | 170,199 @ $37.73 | $6.4M | −8.8% of holding | −1.8% | −63.8% | 1,760,034 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Ru Nathaniel | director | Sale | 170,199 @ $37.73 | $6.4M | −8.7% of holding | −1.8% | −63.8% | 1,781,930 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | BURROWS CLIFFORD | director | Award / grant | 24,115 | 144,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Bornstein Julie | director | Award / grant | 24,115 | 70,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Moran Montgomery F | director | Award / grant | 24,115 | 77,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | OSTROFF DAWN | director | Award / grant | 24,115 | 37,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ru Nathaniel | director | Award / grant | 24,115 | 1,809,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SINGER BRADLEY E | director | Award / grant | 24,115 | 176,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Award / grant | 24,115 | 123,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | McConnell Jamie | officer | Award / grant | 109,890 | 109,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cochran Jason Miles | officer | Award / grant | 76,923 | 226,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cochran Jason Miles | officer | Award / grant | 109,890 | 109,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Award / grant | 53,846 | 1,817,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Award / grant | 76,923 | 76,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | McConnell Jamie | officer | Award / grant | 76,923 | 226,923 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | McConnell Jamie | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | McConnell Jamie | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Cochran Jason Miles | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Cochran Jason Miles | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Reback Mitch | officer | Gift | 43,901 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Reback Mitch | officer | Gift | 43,901 | 326,209 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Reback Mitch | officer | Gift | 26,178 | 43,901 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Reback Mitch | officer | Gift | 26,178 | 212,229 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Reback Mitch | officer | Gift | 26,178 | 43,991 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Reback Mitch | officer | Gift | 26,178 | 238,407 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Reback Mitch | officer | Gift | 43,901 | 282,308 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Bornstein Julie | director | Award / grant | 13,755 | 46,392 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Moran Montgomery F | director | Award / grant | 13,755 | 53,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | OSTROFF DAWN | director | Award / grant | 13,755 | 13,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | SINGER BRADLEY E | director | Award / grant | 13,755 | 152,807 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | BURROWS CLIFFORD | director | Award / grant | 13,755 | 120,320 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Award / grant | 13,755 | 99,172 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Cochran Jason Miles | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Cochran Jason Miles | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-15 | Reback Mitch | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 348,509 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-15 | Reback Mitch | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 61,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Reback Mitch | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 354,023 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Reback Mitch | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 65,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-15 | Reback Mitch | officer | Award / grant | 10,077 | 354,132 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-15 | Reback Mitch | officer | Award / grant | 68,728 | 68,728 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-15 | Neman Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 223,367 | 223,367 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-15 | Jammet Nicolas | director | Award / grant | 5,292 | 1,765,326 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.