SFST · TickerCove

SFSTSouthern First Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $61.28 · now $61.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SFST has typically landed between $53.58 and $71.99 — a range of −12.6% to +17.5% from the issuance price $61.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($61.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$61.28 · 86% of range

$41.15 low$64.6 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 13.7%

−12.6%worst (p90)+17.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SFST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $61.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $61.28 (+0.0%)
typical $61.44 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $57.24–$65.65
90% range $53.58–$71.99

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−47.8%	−47.8%	+1.3%
2020-02-21	−45.5%	−48.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−45.1%	−48.3%	+0.3%
3 best
2009-07-06	+38.0%	+0.0%	+38.0%
2009-02-18	+37.0%	−5.1%	+55.6%
2024-06-25	+35.9%	+0.0%	+35.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+1.6%

n=20

Feb

35%

−0.6%

n=20

Mar

40%

−2.7%

n=20

Apr

60%

+1.4%

n=20

May

55%

+0.8%

n=20

Jun

55%

−0.0%

n=20

Jul

65%

+5.6%

n=20

Aug

40%

−1.9%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.4%

n=20

Oct

65%

+2.9%

n=20

Nov

60%

+4.2%

n=20

Dec

55%

+1.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Locke Anna T	director	Purchase	300 @ $63.27	$19K	+8.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,902	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-03	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	500 @ $62.79	$31K	−1.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	46,600	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-02	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	500 @ $62.00	$31K	−1.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	47,100	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	400 @ $62.40	$25K	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	47,600	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	300 @ $62.50	$19K	−0.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	48,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	465 @ $60.75	$28K	−1.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	48,300	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-28	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	400 @ $63.00	$25K	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	48,765	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-25	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	350 @ $63.05	$22K	−0.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	49,165	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	400 @ $63.00	$25K	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	49,515	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-20	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	800 @ $63.02	$50K	−1.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	49,915	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Sale	6,000 @ $64.00	$384K	−6.5% of holding	−0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	86,597	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Sale	5,000 @ $63.50	$318K	−5.1% of holding	−0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	92,597	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Sale	5,000 @ $63.00	$315K	−4.9% of holding	−0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	97,597	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Sale	4,500 @ $63.75	$287K	−5.2% of holding	−0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	81,597	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Sale	500 @ $64.00	$32K	−0.6% of holding	−0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	86,097	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Fairchild Julie Ann	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $63.00	$95K	−22.4% of holding	−4.7%	not yet — horizon still open	5,200	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-23	Lattimore Ray	director	Sale	253 @ $59.28	$15K	−18.3% of holding	+0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,127	Form 4 · filed 36 days after the trade
2026-06-10	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	765 @ $60.60	$46K	−1.5% of holding	−1.6%	not yet — horizon still open	50,715	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Maner William IV	director	Purchase	400 @ $52.35	$21K	+12.6% of holding	+8.6%	+6.2%	3,585	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26	King Silvia T	officer	Sale	2,625 @ $60.49	$159K	−39.8% of holding	−4.0%	−9.9%	3,963	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Sale	10,000 @ $55.14	$551K	−8.5% of holding	−1.4%	−5.1%	107,654	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-10	ELLISON DAVID G	director	Sale	1,000 @ $53.28	$53K	−2.0% of holding	−5.8%	+2.5%	49,661	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-21	Fairchild Julie Ann	officer	Sale	1,258 @ $50.00	$63K	−22.0% of holding	+1.6%	+1.0%	4,460	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-03	ELLISON DAVID G	director	Purchase	200 @ $43.50	$9K	+0.4% of holding	+18.9%	+21.0%	50,661	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-31	Locke Anna T	director	Purchase	225 @ $44.05	$10K	+7.3% of holding	+16.2%	+22.7%	3,292	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-31	ELLISON DAVID G	director	Purchase	100 @ $44.00	$4K	+0.2% of holding	+16.2%	+22.7%	50,461	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-27	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	35 @ $45.12	$2K	−0.1% of holding	−3.1%	+16.4%	51,170	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-23	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Sale	1,083 @ $35.72	$39K	−2.1% of holding	+17.1%	+33.0%	51,205	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-04	ELLEFSON ANNE S	director	Sale	500 @ $35.01	$18K	−6.9% of holding	+7.9%	+33.4%	6,697	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14	Maner William IV	director	Purchase	700 @ $36.15	$25K	+35.0% of holding	−3.9%	+15.9%	2,700	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10	Locke Anna T	director	Purchase	360 @ $37.01	$13K	+16.2% of holding	−2.5%	+8.9%	2,582	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-18	Grayson-Caprio Terry	director	Purchase	160 @ $42.47	$7K	+4.9% of holding	−12.0%	−9.3%	3,400	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Option exercise	2,827	87,327	Form 4
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Option exercise	2,903	84,500	Form 4
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Option exercise	2,254	89,581	Form 4
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Option exercise	2,445	92,026	Form 4
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Option exercise	2,827	5,173	Form 4
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Option exercise	2,445	5,555	Form 4
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Option exercise	2,903	12,097	Form 4
2026-08-12	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Option exercise	2,254	5,746	Form 4
2026-08-04	Fairchild Julie Ann	officer	Option exercise	1,500	0	Form 4
2026-06-01	KENNEDY, III BRYAN F	director	Award / grant	310	310	Form 4
2026-06-01	Lattimore Ray	director	Award / grant	310	1,380	Form 4
2026-06-01	Maner William IV	director	Award / grant	310	3,895	Form 4
2026-06-01	CAJKA ANDREW B JR	director	Award / grant	310	12,696	Form 4
2026-06-01	COTHRAN MARK A	director	Award / grant	310	100,386	Form 4
2026-06-01	CUBBAGE LEIGHTON M	director	Award / grant	310	51,480	Form 4
2026-06-01	Cluverius Jennifer S	director	Award / grant	310	795	Form 4
2026-06-01	ELLEFSON ANNE S	director	Award / grant	310	7,007	Form 4
2026-06-01	ELLISON DAVID G	director	Award / grant	310	49,971	Form 4
2026-06-01	Goss Darrin Sr.	director	Award / grant	310	795	Form 4
2026-06-01	Grayson-Caprio Terry	director	Award / grant	310	2,795	Form 4
2026-06-01	HOOPER TECUMSEH JR	director	Award / grant	310	43,192	Form 4
2026-06-01	JOHNSTONE RUDOLPH G III	director	Award / grant	310	30,676	Form 4
2026-06-01	Locke Anna T	director	Award / grant	310	3,602	Form 4
2026-06-01	McClatchey William M. JR	director	Award / grant	310	795	Form 4
2026-06-01	ORDERS JAMES B III	director	Award / grant	310	54,526	Form 4
2026-06-01	ORDERS JAMES B III	director	Award / grant	310	54,526	Form 4
2026-05-21	Zych Christian J	officer	Withheld for tax	153	7,078	Form 4
2026-04-22	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Gift	100	102,597	Form 4
2026-02-26	King Silvia T	officer	Option exercise	2,000	6,588	Form 4
2026-02-26	King Silvia T	officer	Option exercise	625	4,588	Form 4
2026-02-26	King Silvia T	officer	Option exercise	2,000	3,500	Form 4
2026-02-26	King Silvia T	officer	Option exercise	625	5,500	Form 4
2026-02-01	SEAVER R ARTHUR JR	director	Withheld for tax	1,657	112,497	Form 4
2026-02-01	Hurst Calvin C	officer	Withheld for tax	1,109	18,383	Form 4
2026-02-01	King Silvia T	officer	Withheld for tax	296	3,963	Form 4
2026-02-01	Wilbanks Wesley Clark	officer	Withheld for tax	242	6,254	Form 4
2026-02-01	Zych Christian J	officer	Withheld for tax	189	5,131	Form 4
2026-02-01	Fairchild Julie Ann	officer	Withheld for tax	135	6,700	Form 4
2026-02-01	Hurst Calvin C	officer	Award / grant	4,500	19,492	Form 4
2026-02-01	Zych Christian J	officer	Award / grant	3,500	5,320	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i