SFNC · TickerCove

SFNCSimmons First National CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.81 · now $22.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SFNC has typically landed between $20.02 and $25.80 — a range of −12.2% to +13.1% from the issuance price $22.81.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$22.81 · 82% of range

$16.72 low$24.12 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.2%

typical move · IQR 11.9%

−12.2%worst (p90)+13.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SFNC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $22.81 (+0.0%)
typical $22.76 (-0.2%)
middle 50% $21.41–$24.12
90% range $20.02–$25.8

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-11	−39.0%	−39.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−36.4%	−38.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−35.3%	−38.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-06-21	+30.9%	+0.0%	+30.9%
2024-06-14	+30.9%	+0.0%	+30.9%
2016-11-08	+30.7%	+0.0%	+30.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−1.6%

n=20

Feb

35%

−0.5%

n=20

Mar

50%

−0.1%

n=20

Apr

40%

−1.7%

n=20

May

55%

+0.6%

n=20

Jun

50%

−0.3%

n=20

Jul

65%

+2.9%

n=20

Aug

35%

−0.5%

n=20

Sep

55%

+3.3%

n=20

Oct

60%

+1.1%

n=20

Nov

65%

+3.9%

n=20

Dec

65%

+1.7%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-10-30	COSSE STEVEN A	director	Purchase	8,603 @ $17.44	$150K	+8.2% of holding	+7.7%	+17.9%	113,652	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-22	Garner David W	officer	Purchase	3,000 @ $17.66	$53K	+4.3% of holding	+0.6%	+13.5%	72,345	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

298 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Casteel Marty	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	LANIGAN SUSAN S	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	DORAMUS MARK C	director	Option exercise	1,033	1,033	Form 4
2026-07-01	HUNTER JERRY	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	Purvis Tom E.	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	COSSE STEVEN A	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	STACKHOUSE JULIE L	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	HUNT EUGENE	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	Shoptaw Robert L	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	TEUBNER RUSSELL WILLIAM	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	DRILLING EDWARD	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	DORAMUS MARK C	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	Casteel Marty	director	Option exercise	1,215	1,215	Form 4
2026-07-01	West Malynda K	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	CLARK WILLIAM E II	director	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-07-01	LANIGAN SUSAN S	director	Option exercise	547	547	Form 4
2026-07-01	HUNTER JERRY	director	Option exercise	975	27,125	Form 4
2026-07-01	DORAMUS MARK C	director	Option exercise	1,033	60,545	Form 4
2026-07-01	DORAMUS MARK C	director	Option exercise	975	61,520	Form 4
2026-07-01	LANIGAN SUSAN S	director	Option exercise	547	35,825	Form 4
2026-07-01	LANIGAN SUSAN S	director	Option exercise	975	36,800	Form 4
2026-07-01	DRILLING EDWARD	director	Option exercise	975	40,471	Form 4
2026-07-01	CLARK WILLIAM E II	director	Option exercise	975	38,765	Form 4
2026-07-01	STACKHOUSE JULIE L	director	Option exercise	975	19,018	Form 4
2026-07-01	HUNT EUGENE	director	Option exercise	975	37,095	Form 4
2026-07-01	TEUBNER RUSSELL WILLIAM	director	Option exercise	975	24,499	Form 4
2026-07-01	Casteel Marty	director	Option exercise	1,215	220,938	Form 4
2026-07-01	Casteel Marty	director	Option exercise	975	221,913	Form 4
2026-07-01	STACKHOUSE JULIE L	director	Option exercise	975	19,018	Form 4
2026-07-01	Shoptaw Robert L	director	Option exercise	975	88,381	Form 4
2026-07-01	TEUBNER RUSSELL WILLIAM	director	Option exercise	975	24,499	Form 4
2026-07-01	CLARK WILLIAM E II	director	Option exercise	975	38,765	Form 4
2026-07-01	West Malynda K	director	Option exercise	975	26,799	Form 4
2026-07-01	DRILLING EDWARD	director	Option exercise	975	40,471	Form 4
2026-07-01	COSSE STEVEN A	director	Option exercise	975	116,530	Form 4
2026-07-01	HUNT EUGENE	director	Option exercise	975	37,095	Form 4
2026-07-01	HUNTER JERRY	director	Option exercise	975	27,125	Form 4
2026-07-01	Casteel Marty	director	Option exercise	1,215	220,938	Form 4
2026-07-01	LANIGAN SUSAN S	director	Option exercise	547	35,825	Form 4
2026-07-01	Casteel Marty	director	Option exercise	975	221,913	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i