Issued 2026-09-16 at $71.06 · now $71.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SFM has typically landed between $61.65 and $85.58 — a range of −13.2% to +20.4% from the issuance price $71.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,280 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-08-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($71.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SFM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $71.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $71.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $73.15 (+2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.32–$77.98
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $61.65–$85.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,280 windows spanning 2013-08-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-19 | −29.5% | −29.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-20 | −29.3% | −29.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-15 | −28.4% | −32.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-12 | +41.2% | +0.0% | +45.6% |
| 2020-04-09 | +39.6% | −1.0% | +39.6% |
| 2021-02-25 | +36.3% | +0.0% | +36.3% |
3,280 overlapping windows · 2013-08-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
46%
+0.2%
n=13
Feb
54%
+3.1%
n=13
Mar
69%
+6.1%
n=13
Apr
38%
−0.0%
n=13
May
46%
−0.7%
n=13
Jun
46%
−0.6%
n=13
Jul
54%
+0.8%
n=13
Aug
54%
−1.3%
n=13
Sep
43%
−2.2%
n=14
Oct
46%
−1.2%
n=13
Nov
77%
+6.9%
n=13
Dec
54%
+0.6%
n=13
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Hamilton Dustin | officer | Sale | 292 @ $80.36 | $23K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 10,788 @ $78.25 | $844K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 10,788 @ $82.66 | $892K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | O'Leary Joseph D | director | Sale | 2,597 @ $82.57 | $214K | −15.0% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,710 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 10,788 @ $86.80 | $936K | −3.8% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 10,788 @ $89.34 | $964K | −3.8% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 10,788 @ $84.87 | $916K | −3.8% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 10,788 @ $87.41 | $943K | −3.8% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Konat Nicholas | officer | Sale | 12,538 @ $87.90 | $1.1M | −15.9% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 10,788 @ $86.92 | $938K | −3.8% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 10,790 @ $82.04 | $885K | −3.8% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Sale | 406 @ $82.04 | $33K | −5.6% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,801 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-23 | Zalatoris Timmi | officer | Sale | 426 @ $78.52 | $33K | −3.2% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,045 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-20 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 3,201 @ $83.97 | $269K | −1.2% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,980 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Konat Nicholas | officer | Sale | 530 @ $83.97 | $45K | −0.7% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,657 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Hurley Joseph L | officer | Sale | 323 @ $83.97 | $27K | −1.1% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,282 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Coffin Kim | officer | Sale | 313 @ $83.97 | $26K | −1.3% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,332 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Zalatoris Timmi | officer | Sale | 311 @ $83.97 | $26K | −2.3% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,471 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | McGlinchey David | officer | Sale | 297 @ $83.97 | $25K | −0.6% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,897 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Sale | 297 @ $83.97 | $25K | −4.0% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,207 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Valentine Curtis | officer | Sale | 253 @ $83.97 | $21K | −1.2% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,411 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Hilgendorf Stacy W. | officer | Sale | 228 @ $83.97 | $19K | −2.4% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,389 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Bahrenburg James H | officer | Sale | 208 @ $83.97 | $17K | −1.5% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,785 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Hamilton Dustin | officer | Sale | 206 @ $83.97 | $17K | −1.2% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,373 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Sale | 758 @ $84.21 | $64K | −9.2% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,504 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Zalatoris Timmi | officer | Sale | 585 @ $83.84 | $49K | −4.1% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,782 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Sale | 11,207 @ $81.50 | $913K | −57.6% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Zalatoris Timmi | officer | Sale | 9,340 @ $83.95 | $784K | −39.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,367 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 4,754 @ $83.50 | $397K | −1.7% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 273,181 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Hamilton Dustin | officer | Sale | 1,017 @ $83.50 | $85K | −5.8% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Konat Nicholas | officer | Sale | 952 @ $83.50 | $79K | −1.2% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | McGlinchey David | officer | Sale | 543 @ $83.50 | $45K | −1.1% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Sale | 538 @ $83.50 | $45K | −2.7% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Zalatoris Timmi | officer | Sale | 480 @ $83.50 | $40K | −2.0% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,707 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Coffin Kim | officer | Sale | 467 @ $83.50 | $39K | −1.9% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Hilgendorf Stacy W. | officer | Sale | 463 @ $83.50 | $39K | −4.6% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Hurley Joseph L | officer | Sale | 456 @ $83.50 | $38K | −1.6% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,605 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Valentine Curtis | officer | Sale | 183 @ $83.50 | $15K | −0.9% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 57,644 @ $80.82 | $4.7M | −17.2% of holding | −13.2% | −23.9% | 277,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Konat Nicholas | officer | Sale | 10,123 @ $80.82 | $818K | −11.2% of holding | −13.2% | −23.9% | 80,139 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | McGlinchey David | officer | Sale | 4,872 @ $80.82 | $394K | −9.1% of holding | −13.2% | −23.9% | 48,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Sale | 4,871 @ $80.82 | $394K | −19.6% of holding | −13.2% | −23.9% | 20,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Hurley Joseph L | officer | Sale | 3,910 @ $80.82 | $316K | −11.9% of holding | −13.2% | −23.9% | 29,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Coffin Kim | officer | Sale | 3,766 @ $80.82 | $304K | −13.5% of holding | −13.2% | −23.9% | 24,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Zalatoris Timmi | officer | Sale | 3,668 @ $80.82 | $296K | −13.2% of holding | −13.2% | −23.9% | 24,187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Valentine Curtis | officer | Sale | 2,268 @ $80.82 | $183K | −9.8% of holding | −13.2% | −23.9% | 20,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Sinclair Jack | director | Sale | 1,052 @ $79.38 | $84K | −0.5% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 196,905 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Konat Nicholas | officer | Sale | 340 @ $79.38 | $27K | −0.5% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 62,490 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Hamilton Dustin | officer | Sale | 330 @ $79.38 | $26K | −1.8% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 17,596 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Sale | 247 @ $79.38 | $20K | −2.6% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 9,326 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | McGlinchey David | officer | Sale | 240 @ $79.38 | $19K | −0.6% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 38,057 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Hurley Joseph L | officer | Sale | 219 @ $79.38 | $17K | −1.1% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 20,183 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Coffin Kim | officer | Sale | 209 @ $79.38 | $17K | −1.4% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 14,928 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Valentine Curtis | officer | Sale | 206 @ $79.38 | $16K | −1.4% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 14,795 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Bahrenburg James H | officer | Sale | 136 @ $79.38 | $11K | −1.0% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 13,993 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Hilgendorf Stacy W. | officer | Sale | 119 @ $79.38 | $9K | −1.2% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 10,080 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Zalatoris Timmi | officer | Sale | 104 @ $79.38 | $8K | −0.7% of holding | −13.5% | −24.0% | 15,067 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Blum Kristen E | director | Purchase | 1,325 @ $76.00 | $101K | +2.5% of holding | −1.0% | −17.3% | 54,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Anderson Joel D | director | Purchase | 4,400 @ $77.17 | $340K | +21.6% of holding | −2.6% | −15.7% | 24,802 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | Gmelich Alisa | officer | Sale | 1,656 @ $79.33 | $131K | −23.0% of holding | +0.8% | −5.6% | 5,552 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 280,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 43,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 280,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 53,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 280,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 64,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 280,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 75,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 280,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 86,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 280,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 97,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 280,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,788 | 107,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,790 | 280,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Sinclair Jack | director | Option exercise | 10,790 | 118,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | JHAWAR ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 2,894 | 2,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Konat Nicholas | officer | Award / grant | 27,772 | 90,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Zalatoris Timmi | officer | Award / grant | 12,788 | 27,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Award / grant | 15,552 | 24,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Hurley Joseph L | officer | Award / grant | 12,788 | 32,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Valentine Curtis | officer | Award / grant | 8,320 | 23,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | McGlinchey David | officer | Award / grant | 15,552 | 53,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Coffin Kim | officer | Award / grant | 12,950 | 27,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Sinclair Jack | director | Award / grant | 138,674 | 335,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Fortunato Joe | director | Award / grant | 3,129 | 21,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Clark Don | officer | Award / grant | 16,371 | 16,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Clark Don | officer | Award / grant | 6,688 | 6,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Coffin Kim | officer | Award / grant | 3,902 | 15,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Konat Nicholas | officer | Award / grant | 17,315 | 17,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Konat Nicholas | officer | Award / grant | 7,155 | 62,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Lombardi Brandon F. | officer | Award / grant | 4,553 | 9,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Valentine Curtis | officer | Award / grant | 3,786 | 15,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Valentine Curtis | officer | Award / grant | 9,162 | 9,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Hamilton Dustin | officer | Award / grant | 2,445 | 17,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Hamilton Dustin | officer | Award / grant | 5,918 | 5,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | McGlinchey David | officer | Award / grant | 4,421 | 38,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Hilgendorf Stacy W. | officer | Award / grant | 2,220 | 10,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Hurley Joseph L | officer | Award / grant | 3,817 | 20,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Blum Kristen E | director | Award / grant | 3,265 | 57,672 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.