Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.91 · now $2.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SFIX has typically landed between $1.99 and $4.05 — a range of −31.6% to +39.3% from the issuance price $2.91.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,196 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-11-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SFIX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.91 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.79 (-4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.38–$3.2
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.99–$4.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,196 windows spanning 2017-11-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −54.5% | −58.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −53.4% | −53.4% | +11.9% |
| 2020-03-04 | −51.7% | −51.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-20 | +102.5% | +0.0% | +102.5% |
| 2020-11-18 | +100.4% | +0.0% | +100.4% |
| 2020-11-17 | +94.8% | −1.0% | +94.8% |
2,196 overlapping windows · 2017-11-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
+12.0%
n=9
Feb
56%
−6.1%
n=9
Mar
22%
−15.9%
n=9
Apr
44%
−3.0%
n=9
May
56%
+9.0%
n=9
Jun
78%
+15.1%
n=9
Jul
56%
+6.3%
n=9
Aug
33%
−6.4%
n=9
Sep
33%
−8.6%
n=9
Oct
50%
−0.3%
n=8
Nov
88%
+7.9%
n=8
Dec
44%
+0.9%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.09 | $204K | −4.9% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 971,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $4.09 | $82K | −2.1% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 951,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.77 | $189K | −4.8% of holding | −24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 991,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $3.74 | $75K | −2.0% of holding | −24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 971,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.79 | $189K | −4.7% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,011,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $3.79 | $76K | −2.0% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 991,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.93 | $197K | −10.4% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,618 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.62 | $181K | −4.6% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,031,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $3.62 | $72K | −1.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,011,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Sale | 67,960 @ $3.79 | $257K | −5.8% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,102,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.80 | $190K | −4.5% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,051,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $3.76 | $75K | −1.9% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,031,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,011 @ $4.42 | $221K | −4.5% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,051,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $4.42 | $88K | −1.8% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,102,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $4.51 | $451K | −8.5% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,071,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.03 | $202K | −4.4% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,091,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $4.04 | $81K | −1.8% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,071,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.14 | $207K | −4.3% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,105,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $4.17 | $83K | −1.8% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,085,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $3.08 | $185K | −11.1% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 480,334 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Sale | 65,709 @ $3.09 | $203K | −5.3% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,178,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 8,835 @ $5.01 | $44K | −100.0% of holding | −33.0% | −24.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 19,347 @ $5.68 | $110K | −3.4% of holding | −38.7% | −30.1% | 542,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 41,259 @ $5.34 | $220K | −7.1% of holding | −37.5% | −39.2% | 542,071 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-21 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 13,852 @ $5.34 | $74K | −2.5% of holding | −34.0% | −40.8% | 542,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 83,641 @ $5.16 | $431K | −13.4% of holding | −33.5% | −37.1% | 542,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Sale | 24,114 @ $5.13 | $124K | −1.9% of holding | −33.5% | −37.1% | 1,251,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 101,150 @ $5.08 | $514K | −100.0% of holding | −7.2% | −37.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 303,450 @ $5.19 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −0.3% | −37.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.41 | $221K | −10.4% of holding | −6.5% | −16.3% | 431,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.61 | $337K | −6.7% of holding | −23.2% | −40.8% | 829,966 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $5.61 | $168K | −3.6% of holding | −23.2% | −40.8% | 799,966 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 101,150 @ $5.07 | $513K | −100.0% of holding | −25.1% | −46.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 51,205 @ $5.04 | $258K | −100.0% of holding | −25.1% | −46.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 101,150 @ $5.03 | $509K | −100.0% of holding | +6.8% | −33.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $5.02 | $251K | −100.0% of holding | +6.8% | −33.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 31,248 @ $5.34 | $167K | −5.9% of holding | −2.0% | −2.8% | 498,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 151,115 @ $5.18 | $783K | −100.0% of holding | −4.8% | −10.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 253,485 @ $5.06 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | −1.7% | −7.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $5.06 | $1.0M | −100.0% of holding | −1.7% | −7.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.00 | $300K | −6.5% of holding | −1.7% | −7.3% | 859,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $5.00 | $150K | −3.5% of holding | −1.7% | −7.3% | 829,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Sale | 20,538 @ $5.10 | $105K | −2.1% of holding | −1.7% | −7.3% | 937,338 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $5.00 | $50K | −2.0% of holding | −1.7% | −7.3% | 498,621 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-21 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.72 | $236K | −9.0% of holding | +3.9% | −5.3% | 508,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Working Capital Advisors (UK) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,370,931 @ $4.68 | $6.4M | −11.4% of holding | −21.5% | −4.1% | 10,608,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.04 | $152K | −8.0% of holding | +34.4% | +15.6% | 575,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Sale | 16,720 @ $4.61 | $77K | −1.8% of holding | +35.2% | −2.1% | 913,962 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 653,581 @ $5.75 | $3.8M | −96.8% of holding | −23.6% | −37.8% | 21,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 50,002 @ $5.87 | $294K | −100.0% of holding | −23.6% | −37.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Lake Katrina | director | Sale | 21,419 @ $6.37 | $136K | −100.0% of holding | −23.6% | −37.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
147 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,021,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 322,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,041,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 372,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,061,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 422,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,081,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 472,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,101,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 522,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,122,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 11 | 1,072,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 572,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 11 | 502,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 1,171,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 502,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,141,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 622,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Baer Matt | director | Withheld for tax | 107,594 | 2,009,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Withheld for tax | 51,603 | 1,170,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 37,010 | 1,091,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,999 | 479,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 43,895 | 219,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Option exercise | 43,895 | 219,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Option exercise | 25,283 | 126,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Baer Matt | director | Option exercise | 61,454 | 787,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Baer Matt | director | Option exercise | 61,454 | 2,117,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Option exercise | 43,895 | 1,221,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 43,895 | 1,129,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Option exercise | 25,283 | 505,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Option exercise | 43,895 | 1,221,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Option exercise | 25,283 | 505,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Baer Matt | director | Option exercise | 61,454 | 2,117,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 43,895 | 1,129,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,155,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 672,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Baer Matt | director | Withheld for tax | 77,818 | 2,055,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Aufderhaar David | officer | Withheld for tax | 52,011 | 1,243,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Bacos Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 37,824 | 1,105,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | O'Connor Casey | officer | Withheld for tax | 27,021 | 540,334 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.