SFD · TickerCove

SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.95 · now $19.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SFD has typically landed between $17.50 and $22.37 — a range of −12.3% to +12.1% from the issuance price $19.95.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

389 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-01-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$19.95 · 0% of range

$19.95 low$29.23 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.0%

typical move · IQR 11.8%

−12.3%worst (p90)+12.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SFD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $19.95 (+0.0%)
typical $20.14 (+1.0%)
middle 50% $18.97–$21.32
90% range $17.5–$22.37

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 389 windows spanning 2025-01-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-07-29	−19.1%	−19.3%	+0.0%
2026-07-28	−18.6%	−18.6%	+0.9%
2026-07-30	−17.5%	−17.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-20	+26.8%	+0.0%	+29.4%
2026-03-10	+25.9%	−2.8%	+25.9%
2026-03-11	+25.6%	−1.7%	+27.3%

389 overlapping windows · 2025-01-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+7.0%

n=1

Feb

50%

+0.5%

n=2

Mar

50%

+5.1%

n=2

Apr

50%

+2.6%

n=2

May

50%

+3.0%

n=2

Jun

50%

−2.7%

n=2

Jul

100%

+4.9%

n=2

Aug

50%

−4.7%

n=2

Sep

−8.3%

n=2

Oct

−5.6%

n=1

Nov

−1.4%

n=1

Dec

100%

+3.3%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-16	France Steven	officer	Sale	82,825 @ $26.82	$2.2M	−36.3% of holding	−0.0%	not yet — horizon still open	145,429	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12	Starling Raymond A	director	Sale	3,960 @ $26.77	$106K	−24.9% of holding	−9.5%	not yet — horizon still open	11,955	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-09	Hall Mark L.	officer	Sale	78,579 @ $26.36	$2.1M	−36.8% of holding	−10.2%	not yet — horizon still open	134,725	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08	WH Group Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	22,461,452 @ $23.25	$522.2M	−6.2% of holding	−8.4%	−2.6%	342,036,069	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-08	Wan Long	director	Purchase	1,800,000 @ $23.25	$41.9M	+55.2% of holding	−8.4%	−2.6%	5,060,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	Owens Donovan	officer	Purchase	12,000 @ $23.25	$279K	+18.5% of holding	−8.4%	−2.6%	77,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	He Hank Shenghua	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $23.25	$233K	+13.0% of holding	−8.4%	−2.6%	87,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	Sutton Doug	officer	Purchase	3,920 @ $23.25	$91K	+6.0% of holding	−8.4%	−2.6%	68,920	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	Watts Keller D.	officer	Purchase	3,833 @ $23.25	$89K	+5.4% of holding	−8.4%	−2.6%	74,857	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	France Steven	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $23.25	$58K	+3.7% of holding	−8.4%	−2.6%	70,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	Hall Mark L.	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $23.25	$47K	+2.9% of holding	−8.4%	−2.6%	72,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12	Watts Keller D.	officer	Purchase	4,291 @ $23.62	$101K	+6.4% of holding	−4.6%	−20.3%	71,024	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20	WH Group Ltd/ADR	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,506,936 @ $20.00	$50.1M	−0.7% of holding	−3.2%	+20.1%	364,518,817	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	WH Group Ltd/ADR	tenPercentOwner	Sale	13,043,479 @ $20.00	$260.9M	−3.4% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	367,025,753	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	Wan Long	director	Purchase	3,200,000 @ $20.00	$64.0M	+5333.3% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	3,260,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	Smith Charles Shane	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $20.00	$600K	+33.3% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	120,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	He Hank Shenghua	director	Purchase	17,000 @ $20.00	$340K	+28.3% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	77,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	Hall Mark L.	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $20.00	$200K	+16.7% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	70,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	France Steven	officer	Purchase	7,500 @ $20.00	$150K	+12.5% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	67,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	Watts Keller D.	officer	Purchase	6,733 @ $20.00	$135K	+11.2% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	66,733	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	Owens Donovan	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $20.00	$100K	+8.3% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	65,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	Sutton Doug	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $20.00	$100K	+8.3% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	65,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	Checkovich Tennille J.	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $20.00	$40K	+20.0% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	12,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29	Westerbeek Kraig A.	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $20.00	$20K	+5.6% of holding	+3.0%	+14.9%	19,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-12	France Steven	officer	Option exercise	82,825	228,254	Form 4
2026-06-12	France Steven	officer	Option exercise	82,825	165,645	Form 4
2026-06-09	Hall Mark L.	officer	Option exercise	78,579	213,304	Form 4
2026-06-09	Hall Mark L.	officer	Option exercise	78,579	314,318	Form 4
2026-06-02	QUELCH JOHN	director	Award / grant	6,915	15,915	Form 4
2026-06-02	Starling Raymond A	director	Award / grant	6,915	15,915	Form 4
2026-06-02	Gallagher Marie T.	director	Award / grant	6,915	15,915	Form 4
2026-03-10	France Steven	officer	Award / grant	93,305	163,305	Form 4
2026-03-10	Bennett Isham Jay	officer	Award / grant	14,672	28,672	Form 4
2026-03-10	Bennett Isham Jay	officer	Award / grant	39,071	130,747	Form 4
2026-03-10	France Steven	officer	Award / grant	248,470	641,367	Form 4
2026-03-10	Hall Mark L.	officer	Award / grant	78,353	150,353	Form 4
2026-03-10	Hall Mark L.	officer	Award / grant	208,653	601,550	Form 4
2026-03-10	Smith Charles Shane	director	Award / grant	146,190	266,190	Form 4
2026-03-10	Smith Charles Shane	director	Award / grant	389,303	978,648	Form 4
2026-03-10	Watts Keller D.	officer	Award / grant	81,446	156,303	Form 4
2026-03-10	Watts Keller D.	officer	Award / grant	216,889	609,786	Form 4
2026-03-10	Westerbeek Kraig A.	officer	Award / grant	34,319	53,319	Form 4
2026-03-10	Westerbeek Kraig A.	officer	Award / grant	91,390	209,259	Form 4
2026-03-10	He Hank Shenghua	director	Award / grant	78,353	165,353	Form 4
2026-03-10	He Hank Shenghua	director	Award / grant	208,653	601,550	Form 4
2026-03-10	Sutton Doug	officer	Award / grant	81,446	150,366	Form 4
2026-03-10	Sutton Doug	officer	Award / grant	216,889	609,786	Form 4
2026-03-10	Checkovich Tennille J.	officer	Award / grant	10,676	22,676	Form 4
2026-03-10	Checkovich Tennille J.	officer	Award / grant	28,431	93,914	Form 4
2026-03-10	Owens Donovan	officer	Award / grant	78,637	155,637	Form 4
2026-03-10	Owens Donovan	officer	Award / grant	209,409	602,306	Form 4
2026-01-28	Smith Charles Shane	director	Withheld for tax	5,569	114,431	Form 4
2026-01-28	He Hank Shenghua	director	Withheld for tax	3,849	83,151	Form 4
2026-01-28	Hall Mark L.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,848	68,152	Form 4
2026-01-28	France Steven	officer	Withheld for tax	3,848	66,152	Form 4
2026-01-28	Owens Donovan	officer	Withheld for tax	3,159	73,841	Form 4
2026-01-28	Sutton Doug	officer	Withheld for tax	3,159	65,761	Form 4
2026-01-28	Westerbeek Kraig A.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,224	17,776	Form 4
2026-01-28	Bennett Isham Jay	officer	Withheld for tax	992	13,008	Form 4
2026-01-28	Brobst Robert Allen JR	officer	Withheld for tax	822	10,778	Form 4
2026-01-28	Checkovich Tennille J.	officer	Withheld for tax	708	11,292	Form 4
2025-04-08	WH Group Ltd/ADR	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	21,296	0	Form 4
2025-01-29	Starling Raymond A	director	Award / grant	9,000	9,000	Form 4
2025-01-29	QUELCH JOHN	director	Award / grant	9,000	9,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i