SF · TickerCove

SFStifel Financial CorpFinancial Services · Investment - Banking & Investment Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $75.58 · now $75.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SF has typically landed between $66.59 and $85.79 — a range of −11.9% to +13.5% from the issuance price $75.58.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($75.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$75.58 · 38% of range

$67.98 low$87.97 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.0%

typical move · IQR 11.8%

−11.9%worst (p90)+13.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $75.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $75.58 (+0.0%)
typical $77.09 (+2.0%)
middle 50% $72.61–$81.56
90% range $66.59–$85.79

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−50.7%	−50.7%	+2.3%
2020-02-20	−49.8%	−51.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−48.9%	−50.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06	+52.2%	−0.4%	+52.8%
2009-03-05	+45.7%	−5.0%	+45.7%
2008-11-20	+45.2%	+0.0%	+48.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+2.1%

n=20

Feb

45%

+1.0%

n=20

Mar

55%

−1.4%

n=20

Apr

55%

+1.4%

n=20

May

55%

+0.8%

n=20

Jun

40%

−1.2%

n=20

Jul

80%

+5.5%

n=20

Aug

50%

−0.4%

n=20

Sep

40%

+0.2%

n=20

Oct

55%

+2.7%

n=20

Nov

75%

+5.3%

n=20

Dec

70%

+2.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-23	Brown Maryam S.	director	Sale	2,500 @ $79.25	$198K	−24.0% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	7,929	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-23	Brown Maryam S.	director	Sale	2,200 @ $79.14	$174K	−27.7% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	5,729	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-02	Rubulotta David	other	Sale	400 @ $124.31	$50K	−28.7% of holding	−7.3%	−9.0%	992	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-29	ZEMLYAK JAMES M	officer	Sale	9 @ $123.90	$1K	−0.1% of holding	−7.5%	−7.4%	7,072	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13	ZEMLYAK JAMES M	officer	Purchase	2 @ $116.00	$232	+0.0% of holding	−2.2%	−3.1%	7,037	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-08-12	ZEMLYAK JAMES M	officer	Purchase	2 @ $114.16	$228	+0.0% of holding	−1.0%	+1.1%	7,035	Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-08-11	ZEMLYAK JAMES M	officer	Purchase	1 @ $111.76	$112	+0.0% of holding	−0.1%	+4.6%	7,033	Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade
2025-08-07	ZEMLYAK JAMES M	officer	Purchase	4 @ $110.17	$441	+0.1% of holding	+0.3%	+9.7%	7,032	Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade
2025-06-06	ZIMMERMAN MICHAEL J	director	Sale	5,000 @ $97.00	$485K	−9.8% of holding	+7.9%	+17.0%	45,833	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-06	ZIMMERMAN MICHAEL J	director	Sale	5,000 @ $96.39	$482K	−9.0% of holding	+7.9%	+17.0%	50,833	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13	PEACOCK DAVID A	director	Sale	12,922 @ $99.83	$1.3M	−61.1% of holding	−4.7%	+7.7%	8,228	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

289 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-09	ZIMMERMAN MICHAEL J	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-09	PEACOCK DAVID A	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nesi Victor	director	Award / grant	2,450	90,962	Form 4
2026-06-09	Markus Maura A.	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-09	Kavanaugh James P.	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-09	Grady Robert Edward	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-09	Carnoy Lisa Landau	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-09	Berlew Adam T.	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-09	BROWN MICHAEL W	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-09	Brown Maryam S.	director	Award / grant	2,450	2,450	Form 4
2026-06-04	Markus Maura A.	director	Option exercise	2,812	44,688	Form 4
2026-06-04	PEACOCK DAVID A	director	Option exercise	2,812	13,764	Form 4
2026-06-04	Berlew Adam T.	director	Other acquisition	2,812	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	Brown Maryam S.	director	Option exercise	2,812	10,429	Form 4
2026-06-04	Brown Maryam S.	director	Option exercise	2,812	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	Carnoy Lisa Landau	director	Option exercise	2,812	10,611	Form 4
2026-06-04	Carnoy Lisa Landau	director	Option exercise	2,812	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	Kavanaugh James P.	director	Option exercise	2,812	13,626	Form 4
2026-06-04	Kavanaugh James P.	director	Disposition	2,812	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	Markus Maura A.	director	Option exercise	2,812	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	ZIMMERMAN MICHAEL J	director	Option exercise	2,812	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	ZIMMERMAN MICHAEL J	director	Option exercise	2,812	71,562	Form 4
2026-06-04	PEACOCK DAVID A	director	Option exercise	2,812	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	BROWN MICHAEL W	director	Option exercise	2,812	103,264	Form 4
2026-06-04	BROWN MICHAEL W	director	Option exercise	2,812	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	Berlew Adam T.	director	Option exercise	2,812	24,475	Form 4
2026-03-09	Raymond Charles Bradford	other	Withheld for tax	29,443	88,337	Form 4
2026-03-09	Raymond Charles Bradford	other	Award / grant	60,673	144,260	Form 4
2026-03-09	Raymond Charles Bradford	other	Option exercise	53,241	117,780	Form 4
2026-03-09	Raymond Charles Bradford	other	Option exercise	53,241	91,019	Form 4
2026-02-27	KRUSZEWSKI RONALD J	director	Award / grant	39,163	236,278	Form 4
2026-02-27	KRUSZEWSKI RONALD J	director	Award / grant	27,009	263,287	Form 4
2026-02-27	ZEMLYAK JAMES M	officer	Award / grant	25,388	119,887	Form 4
2026-02-27	Michaud Thomas B.	officer	Award / grant	17,623	69,112	Form 4
2026-02-27	Michaud Thomas B.	officer	Award / grant	13,504	82,616	Form 4
2026-02-27	Raymond Charles Bradford	other	Award / grant	13,504	83,587	Form 4
2026-02-27	ZEMLYAK JAMES M	officer	Award / grant	13,504	133,391	Form 4
2026-02-27	McDuffie Brantley	other	Award / grant	13,504	31,419	Form 4
2026-02-27	Rubulotta David	other	Award / grant	13,504	36,936	Form 4
2026-02-27	Raymond Charles Bradford	other	Award / grant	12,694	70,083	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i