Issued 2026-09-16 at $117.32 · now $117.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SEZL has typically landed between $69.20 and $243.61 — a range of −41.0% to +107.6% from the issuance price $117.32.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,523 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($117.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SEZL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $117.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $117.32 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $120.34 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $90.32–$150.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $69.2–$243.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,523 windows spanning 2020-06-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-13 | −87.2% | −87.2% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-12 | −86.9% | −86.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-08 | −86.8% | −86.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-07-24 | +1007.4% | +0.0% | +1007.4% |
| 2023-07-21 | +1007.4% | +0.0% | +1007.4% |
| 2023-07-20 | +1007.4% | +0.0% | +1007.4% |
1,523 overlapping windows · 2020-06-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+38.4%
n=6
Feb
50%
−0.2%
n=6
Mar
33%
+7.9%
n=6
Apr
67%
+10.6%
n=6
May
50%
+14.8%
n=6
Jun
83%
+30.9%
n=6
Jul
43%
+28.2%
n=7
Aug
57%
+91.1%
n=7
Sep
14%
−21.9%
n=7
Oct
17%
−6.6%
n=6
Nov
50%
+13.7%
n=6
Dec
50%
+4.0%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Brehm Kyle M. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $125.92 | $126K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,853 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Khurana Rajeev | officer | Purchase | 129 @ $115.88 | $15K | +3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,629 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 7,232 @ $190.25 | $1.4M | −1.8% of holding | −31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 400,718 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $193.52 | $329K | −0.4% of holding | −31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 397,618 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 900 @ $191.21 | $172K | −0.2% of holding | −31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 399,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 500 @ $192.19 | $96K | −0.1% of holding | −31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 399,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 434 @ $195.03 | $85K | −0.2% of holding | −31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 286,497 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 400 @ $194.51 | $78K | −0.1% of holding | −31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 397,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 5,283 @ $190.39 | $1.0M | −1.3% of holding | −34.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 410,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $190.30 | $952K | −1.7% of holding | −34.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 286,931 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 2,362 @ $191.86 | $453K | −0.6% of holding | −34.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 408,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 2,326 @ $185.38 | $431K | −0.8% of holding | −34.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 294,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $187.45 | $225K | −0.4% of holding | −34.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 292,201 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 1,104 @ $186.45 | $206K | −0.4% of holding | −34.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,401 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 600 @ $192.88 | $116K | −0.1% of holding | −34.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 407,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 270 @ $188.08 | $51K | −0.1% of holding | −34.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 291,931 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 100 @ $185.00 | $19K | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 296,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 4,286 @ $180.35 | $773K | −1.4% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 297,645 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Sale | 3,837 @ $179.59 | $689K | −1.4% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 262,873 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Sale | 3,093 @ $180.31 | $558K | −1.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 259,780 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 2,475 @ $176.60 | $437K | −0.8% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 302,031 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 2,425 @ $175.31 | $425K | −0.8% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 304,506 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 714 @ $181.18 | $129K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 296,931 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 100 @ $177.25 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,931 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $170.07 | $850K | −1.6% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 306,931 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 574 @ $165.00 | $95K | −0.2% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,931 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 4,426 @ $165.19 | $731K | −1.4% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 312,505 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 15,553 @ $160.26 | $2.5M | −3.5% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 427,042 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 5,806 @ $163.43 | $949K | −1.4% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 416,385 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 3,239 @ $162.76 | $527K | −0.8% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 422,191 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 1,972 @ $160.31 | $316K | −0.6% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,879 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Sale | 1,948 @ $161.00 | $314K | −0.6% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,931 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 1,612 @ $161.22 | $260K | −0.4% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,430 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 190 @ $164.11 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 416,195 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 8,150 @ $133.72 | $1.1M | −1.8% of holding | +40.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 452,196 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 7,421 @ $134.55 | $998K | −1.6% of holding | +40.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 444,775 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 4,249 @ $132.82 | $564K | −0.9% of holding | +40.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 460,346 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 2,900 @ $130.33 | $378K | −0.6% of holding | +40.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 466,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 2,180 @ $135.62 | $296K | −0.5% of holding | +40.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 442,595 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $131.54 | $197K | −0.3% of holding | +40.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 464,595 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Krause Justin | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $118.00 | $354K | −4.0% of holding | +49.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Krause Justin | officer | Sale | 178 @ $113.00 | $20K | −0.2% of holding | +49.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 729 @ $100.08 | $73K | −0.2% of holding | +21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 449,034 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 39 @ $101.19 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 448,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 188 @ $100.25 | $19K | −0.0% of holding | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 449,768 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 5 @ $101.51 | $508 | −0.0% of holding | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 449,763 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 5,853 @ $100.40 | $588K | −1.2% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 469,542 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 4,538 @ $101.37 | $460K | −1.0% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 465,004 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 4,236 @ $103.63 | $439K | −0.9% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 458,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 2,698 @ $102.46 | $276K | −0.6% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 462,306 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Krause Justin | officer | Sale | 2,325 @ $113.28 | $263K | −3.3% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Krause Justin | officer | Sale | 2,440 @ $103.14 | $252K | −3.2% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,017 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 1,843 @ $106.47 | $196K | −0.4% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 452,753 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 1,770 @ $104.26 | $185K | −0.4% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Krause Justin | officer | Sale | 1,693 @ $108.59 | $184K | −2.3% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,764 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 1,704 @ $105.32 | $179K | −0.4% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 454,596 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Paradis Paul | director | Sale | 1,596 @ $107.65 | $172K | −0.4% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 451,157 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Krause Justin | officer | Sale | 1,682 @ $100.60 | $169K | −2.1% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,057 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Krause Justin | officer | Sale | 721 @ $109.51 | $79K | −1.0% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,043 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Krause Justin | officer | Sale | 718 @ $98.91 | $71K | −0.9% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,739 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Youakim Charles | director | Other acquisition | 1,508,454 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Youakim Charles | director | Other acquisition | 1,508,454 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Youakim Charles | director | Other acquisition | 1,508,454 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Youakim Charles | director | Other acquisition | 1,508,454 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Paradis Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 7,110 | 390,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Youakim Charles | director | Withheld for tax | 6,978 | 12,346,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,973 | 252,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Krause Justin | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,571 | 70,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,405 | 285,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Option exercise | 6,930 | 266,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Option exercise | 6,930 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Withheld for tax | 342 | 259,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Krause Justin | officer | Withheld for tax | 45 | 72,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Khurana Rajeev | officer | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Paradis Paul | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 468,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Youakim Charles | director | Award / grant | 28,000 | 12,353,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hunt Bryan Cecil | director | Award / grant | 935 | 3,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Krause Justin | officer | Award / grant | 8,000 | 75,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 260,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | East Stephen F. | director | Award / grant | 725 | 4,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Brehm Kyle M. | director | Award / grant | 725 | 24,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Krause Justin | officer | Withheld for tax | 754 | 79,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Withheld for tax | 701 | 320,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Paradis Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 7,110 | 475,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,976 | 215,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Youakim Charles | director | Withheld for tax | 6,975 | 12,325,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Krause Justin | officer | Withheld for tax | 515 | 80,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Withheld for tax | 426 | 321,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hollis Kerissa | officer | Withheld for tax | 185 | 12,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,367 | 222,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Hollis Kerissa | officer | Withheld for tax | 266 | 12,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Krause Justin | officer | Withheld for tax | 183 | 80,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Brading Lee Dickson | officer | Award / grant | 29,976 | 321,978 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Paradis Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 7,110 | 514,162 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Youakim Charles | director | Withheld for tax | 6,985 | 12,339,464 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,976 | 228,583 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Hartje Karen | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,310 | 33,661 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Krause Justin | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,565 | 82,313 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Hollis Kerissa | officer | Withheld for tax | 329 | 13,070 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Sabzivand Amin | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,744 | 235,559 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.