SEVN · TickerCove

SEVNSeven Hills Realty TrustReal Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.36 · now $7.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SEVN has typically landed between $6.65 and $8.10 — a range of −9.7% to +10.1% from the issuance price $7.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.36 · 1% of range

$7.34 low$9.74 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.4%

typical move · IQR 7.1%

−9.7%worst (p90)+10.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SEVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.36 (+0.0%)
typical $7.39 (+0.4%)
middle 50% $7.13–$7.65
90% range $6.65–$8.1

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−68.2%	−68.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-24	−66.5%	−68.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−66.4%	−66.4%	+1.2%
3 best
2009-05-18	+59.3%	−0.7%	+59.3%
2020-03-18	+57.9%	−6.7%	+63.9%
2020-03-23	+50.7%	+0.0%	+75.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+2.9%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.1%

n=20

Mar

60%

−0.6%

n=20

Apr

70%

+3.7%

n=20

May

35%

−0.8%

n=20

Jun

60%

+2.6%

n=20

Jul

65%

+1.4%

n=20

Aug

45%

−1.9%

n=20

Sep

45%

−3.2%

n=20

Oct

60%

−0.3%

n=20

Nov

35%

−0.9%

n=20

Dec

65%

+2.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-12-11	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Purchase	2,015,748 @ $8.65	$17.4M	+78.7% of holding	−4.2%	−15.2%	4,577,835	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-11	Tremont Realty Capital LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	2,015,748 @ $8.65	$17.4M	+78.7% of holding	−4.2%	−15.2%	4,577,835	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01	SOMERS JEFFREY P.	director	Sale	1,441 @ $0.01	$20	−100.0% of holding	+1.5%	−7.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-05-30	Morea Joseph	director	Purchase	3,800 @ $11.88	$45K	+9.8% of holding	−1.9%	−38.5%	42,391	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

90 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Award / grant	27,247	366,232	Form 4
2026-09-10	Jordan Matthew P.	director	Award / grant	27,247	126,359	Form 4
2026-09-10	Brown Matthew C.	officer	Award / grant	13,623	34,988	Form 4
2026-09-10	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Award / grant	27,247	366,232	Form 4
2026-09-10	Lorenzini Thomas J.	officer	Award / grant	20,435	59,754	Form 4
2026-09-10	Jordan Matthew P.	director	Award / grant	27,247	126,359	Form 4
2026-09-10	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Award / grant	27,247	366,232	Form 4
2026-09-10	Lorenzini Thomas J.	officer	Award / grant	20,435	59,754	Form 4
2026-09-10	Brown Matthew C.	officer	Award / grant	13,623	34,988	Form 4
2026-09-10	Jordan Matthew P.	director	Award / grant	27,247	126,359	Form 4
2026-09-10	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Award / grant	27,247	366,232	Form 4
2026-09-10	Lorenzini Thomas J.	officer	Award / grant	20,435	59,754	Form 4
2026-09-10	Jordan Matthew P.	director	Award / grant	27,247	126,359	Form 4
2026-09-10	Brown Matthew C.	officer	Award / grant	13,623	34,988	Form 4
2026-09-10	Lorenzini Thomas J.	officer	Award / grant	20,435	59,754	Form 4
2026-06-09	LAMKIN WILLIAM A.	director	Gift	9,976	38,784	Form 4
2026-06-09	LAMKIN WILLIAM A.	director	Gift	9,976	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	Danner Ann Marie	director	Award / grant	9,976	26,005	Form 4
2026-06-09	GILMORE BARBARA D.	director	Award / grant	9,976	43,688	Form 4
2026-06-09	Jordan Matthew P.	director	Award / grant	9,976	99,112	Form 4
2026-06-09	LAMKIN WILLIAM A.	director	Award / grant	9,976	9,976	Form 4
2026-06-09	Morea Joseph	director	Award / grant	9,976	73,562	Form 4
2026-06-09	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Award / grant	9,976	338,985	Form 4
2026-06-09	Talley Mark A.	director	Award / grant	9,976	9,976	Form 4
2026-06-09	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Award / grant	9,976	338,985	Form 4
2026-06-09	Morea Joseph	director	Award / grant	9,976	73,562	Form 4
2026-06-09	Danner Ann Marie	director	Award / grant	9,976	26,005	Form 4
2026-06-09	GILMORE BARBARA D.	director	Award / grant	9,976	43,688	Form 4
2026-06-09	Jordan Matthew P.	director	Award / grant	9,976	99,112	Form 4
2026-06-09	LAMKIN WILLIAM A.	director	Award / grant	9,976	9,976	Form 4
2026-06-09	Talley Mark A.	director	Award / grant	9,976	9,976	Form 4
2025-12-12	Lorenzini Thomas J.	officer	Exercise	12,525	39,319	Form 4
2025-12-12	Lorenzini Thomas J.	officer	Exercise	12,525	0	Form 4
2025-12-04	Tremont Realty Capital LLC	tenPercentOwner	Exercise	854,029	2,562,087	Form 4
2025-12-04	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Exercise	854,029	2,562,087	Form 4
2025-12-04	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Exercise	109,669	329,009	Form 4
2025-12-04	Tremont Realty Capital LLC	tenPercentOwner	Exercise	58,266	178,488	Form 4
2025-12-04	PORTNOY ADAM D.	director	Exercise	58,266	178,488	Form 4
2025-12-04	Morea Joseph	director	Exercise	16,339	58,730	Form 4
2025-12-04	Brown Matthew C.	officer	Exercise	7,121	21,365	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i