Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.29 · now $4.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SERV has typically landed between $2.61 and $7.45 — a range of −39.3% to +73.7% from the issuance price $4.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
610 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-03-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SERV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.08 (-4.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.28–$4.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.61–$7.45
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 610 windows spanning 2024-03-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-13 | −65.8% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-10 | −64.3% | −68.3% | +8.6% |
| 2025-02-07 | −64.2% | −65.7% | +17.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-06-26 | +965.4% | +0.0% | +965.4% |
| 2024-06-28 | +798.5% | −6.7% | +894.4% |
| 2024-07-01 | +789.7% | −6.2% | +899.5% |
610 overlapping windows · 2024-03-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+11.7%
n=2
Feb
0%
−25.0%
n=2
Mar
0%
−25.8%
n=2
Apr
67%
−9.8%
n=3
May
67%
+32.3%
n=3
Jun
0%
−21.4%
n=3
Jul
33%
+253.4%
n=3
Aug
67%
−13.6%
n=3
Sep
33%
−4.5%
n=3
Oct
100%
+20.6%
n=2
Nov
0%
−18.3%
n=2
Dec
100%
+28.2%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 9,700 @ $4.80 | $47K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 276,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 45,158 @ $4.56 | $206K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,232,933 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 19,810 @ $4.56 | $90K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,260,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 18,183 @ $4.53 | $82K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,280,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 6,129 @ $4.56 | $28K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 285,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 25,240 @ $5.24 | $132K | −8.0% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 291,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Goldberg David Michael | director | Sale | 10,600 @ $7.20 | $76K | −23.2% of holding | −21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,125 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 15,885 @ $7.24 | $115K | −0.5% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,278,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 4,219 @ $7.24 | $31K | −0.3% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,298,244 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 1,496 @ $7.24 | $11K | −0.5% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 317,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 14,644 @ $9.26 | $136K | −0.4% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,293,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 3,888 @ $9.26 | $36K | −0.3% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,302,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 201 @ $9.26 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 11,753 @ $9.29 | $109K | −0.4% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,308,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 5,993 @ $9.29 | $56K | −0.5% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,306,351 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 2,790 @ $9.29 | $26K | −0.9% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 1,179 @ $9.29 | $11K | −0.4% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 321,558 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 14,541 @ $8.62 | $125K | −0.4% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,320,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 3,861 @ $8.62 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,312,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 200 @ $8.62 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 322,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 1,263 @ $8.03 | $10K | −0.4% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 322,937 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Armenta Anthony | officer | Sale | 3,567 @ $9.82 | $35K | −0.7% of holding | −7.0% | −66.9% | 540,919 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 13,500 @ $9.72 | $131K | −0.4% of holding | −17.1% | −65.0% | 3,334,914 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 3,922 @ $9.72 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | −17.1% | −65.0% | 1,316,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Abraham Euan | officer | Sale | 1,390 @ $9.72 | $14K | −0.6% of holding | −17.1% | −65.0% | 235,647 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 203 @ $9.72 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −17.1% | −65.0% | 324,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Dunn Evan | officer | Sale | 538 @ $9.44 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | −13.2% | −62.7% | 202,294 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 1,268 @ $9.61 | $12K | −0.4% of holding | −9.3% | −63.9% | 324,403 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Armenta Anthony | officer | Sale | 3,432 @ $9.38 | $32K | −0.6% of holding | +2.2% | −62.7% | 544,486 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 9,259 @ $10.17 | $94K | −0.3% of holding | −2.6% | −62.6% | 3,348,414 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 3,558 @ $10.17 | $36K | −0.3% of holding | −2.6% | −62.6% | 1,320,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Abraham Euan | officer | Sale | 1,375 @ $10.17 | $14K | −0.6% of holding | −2.6% | −62.6% | 237,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 185 @ $10.17 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −2.6% | −62.6% | 325,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Dunn Evan | officer | Sale | 688 @ $9.56 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −7.5% | −66.5% | 202,832 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 8,101 @ $10.33 | $84K | −0.2% of holding | −5.1% | −56.7% | 3,357,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 5,998 @ $10.33 | $62K | −0.5% of holding | −5.1% | −56.7% | 1,323,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Abraham Euan | officer | Sale | 3,284 @ $10.33 | $34K | −1.4% of holding | −5.1% | −56.7% | 238,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Armenta Anthony | officer | Sale | 3,223 @ $10.33 | $33K | −0.6% of holding | −5.1% | −56.7% | 547,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 3,185 @ $10.33 | $33K | −1.0% of holding | −5.1% | −56.7% | 325,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Dunn Evan | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $10.33 | $28K | −1.3% of holding | −5.1% | −56.7% | 203,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 1,547 @ $10.83 | $17K | −0.5% of holding | −9.1% | −59.8% | 329,041 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Armenta Anthony | officer | Sale | 3,893 @ $14.27 | $56K | −0.7% of holding | −33.6% | −72.2% | 551,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 9,088 @ $14.30 | $130K | −0.3% of holding | −31.3% | −71.7% | 3,365,774 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 4,528 @ $15.88 | $72K | −1.4% of holding | −31.3% | −71.7% | 330,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 4,008 @ $14.30 | $57K | −0.3% of holding | −31.3% | −71.7% | 1,329,683 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Abraham Euan | officer | Sale | 1,171 @ $14.30 | $17K | −0.5% of holding | −31.3% | −71.7% | 241,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 220 @ $14.30 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −31.3% | −71.7% | 335,116 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Dunn Evan | officer | Sale | 598 @ $12.81 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −27.8% | −63.1% | 206,220 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 1,863 @ $10.37 | $19K | −0.6% of holding | −2.5% | −48.6% | 335,336 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Armenta Anthony | officer | Sale | 5,003 @ $11.96 | $60K | −0.9% of holding | +30.9% | −48.5% | 555,034 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 6,700 @ $13.15 | $88K | −1.9% of holding | +22.0% | −56.6% | 337,199 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $13.07 | $65K | −0.4% of holding | +22.0% | −56.6% | 1,333,691 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Kashani Ali | director | Sale | 16,730 @ $11.87 | $199K | −0.5% of holding | +11.3% | −54.0% | 3,374,862 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Parang Touraj | director | Sale | 6,300 @ $11.87 | $75K | −0.5% of holding | +11.3% | −54.0% | 1,338,691 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Abraham Euan | officer | Sale | 1,917 @ $11.87 | $23K | −0.8% of holding | +11.3% | −54.0% | 242,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 371 @ $11.87 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | +11.3% | −54.0% | 343,899 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Dunn Evan | officer | Sale | 504 @ $13.42 | $7K | −0.2% of holding | +13.7% | −54.7% | 206,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $13.05 | $98K | −2.1% of holding | −0.6% | −50.1% | 344,270 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Read Brian | officer | Sale | 2,057 @ $9.82 | $20K | −0.6% of holding | +18.0% | −27.4% | 351,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Armenta Anthony | officer | Sale | 49,082 @ $9.32 | $457K | −8.1% of holding | +12.1% | −23.1% | 560,037 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Lieber Andreas | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Vincent Olivier | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 49,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Goldberg David Michael | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 55,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sarafan Lily | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 78,402 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 275,539 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 50,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 50,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 252,019 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 75,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 75,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-28 | Vincent Olivier | director | Option exercise | 8,000 | 29,928 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-28 | Vincent Olivier | director | Option exercise | 8,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | Read Brian | officer | Award / grant | 181,064 | 397,478 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | Parang Touraj | director | Award / grant | 264,022 | 1,424,671 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | Armenta Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 138,864 | 615,579 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | Abraham Euan | officer | Award / grant | 126,330 | 275,185 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | Dunn Evan | officer | Award / grant | 137,782 | 237,782 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | Kashani Ali | director | Award / grant | 382,777 | 3,606,204 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-23 | Vincent Olivier | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 29,928 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-23 | Sarafan Lily | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 58,402 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-23 | Goldberg David Michael | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 61,425 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 175,518 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 100,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Abraham Euan | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 100,875 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Kashani Ali | director | Option exercise | 45,182 | 3,378,386 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Parang Touraj | director | Option exercise | 11,403 | 1,211,544 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Parang Touraj | director | Option exercise | 2,993 | 1,214,537 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Kashani Ali | director | Option exercise | 403 | 3,378,789 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Parang Touraj | director | Option exercise | 2,993 | 5,458 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Kashani Ali | director | Option exercise | 45,182 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Kashani Ali | director | Option exercise | 403 | 12,109 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Parang Touraj | director | Option exercise | 11,403 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-04 | Sarafan Lily | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 38,402 | Form 4 |
| 2024-04-18 | Pourdad Ali | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-04-18 | Vincent Olivier | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.