Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.02 · now $2.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SERA has typically landed between $1.32 and $2.91 — a range of −34.8% to +44.1% from the issuance price $2.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,275 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SERA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.93 (-4.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.65–$2.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.32–$2.91
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,275 windows spanning 2021-07-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-16 | −57.7% | −57.7% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-15 | −50.7% | −51.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-17 | −50.3% | −57.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-17 | +291.4% | +0.0% | +291.4% |
| 2023-11-20 | +269.4% | +0.0% | +280.6% |
| 2023-11-21 | +266.1% | +0.0% | +280.6% |
1,275 overlapping windows · 2021-07-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+1.8%
n=5
Feb
40%
+19.2%
n=5
Mar
40%
−9.4%
n=5
Apr
20%
−9.6%
n=5
May
20%
−20.4%
n=5
Jun
60%
+9.6%
n=5
Jul
80%
+16.1%
n=5
Aug
33%
−8.3%
n=6
Sep
50%
−1.9%
n=6
Oct
20%
−2.8%
n=5
Nov
60%
−1.3%
n=5
Dec
40%
+35.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 7,022 @ $2.00 | $14K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 837,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 2,190 @ $2.00 | $4K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 159,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $2.00 | $4K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,198 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Inglis Tiffany Eul Davis | officer | Sale | 486 @ $2.00 | $972 | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 20,139 @ $2.00 | $40K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 844,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 6,990 @ $2.01 | $14K | −0.8% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 865,009 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. | officer | Sale | 4,739 @ $2.01 | $10K | −5.7% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,998 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 2,179 @ $2.01 | $4K | −1.3% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 2,037 @ $2.01 | $4K | −0.7% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Inglis Tiffany Eul Davis | officer | Sale | 362 @ $2.01 | $728 | −0.4% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,075 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 20,755 @ $2.08 | $43K | −2.3% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 871,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 5,440 @ $2.08 | $11K | −1.8% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 303,227 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Lawrence Sandra AJ | director | Sale | 1,560 @ $2.15 | $3K | −8.7% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 2,973 @ $2.04 | $6K | −0.4% of holding | +1.3% | −6.4% | 738,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Boniface John J. | officer | Sale | 1,517 @ $2.04 | $3K | −1.0% of holding | +1.3% | −6.4% | 145,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Kearney Paul | officer | Sale | 1,396 @ $2.04 | $3K | −0.8% of holding | +1.3% | −6.4% | 163,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,027 @ $2.04 | $2K | −0.9% of holding | +1.3% | −6.4% | 114,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $2.04 | $2K | −0.4% of holding | +1.3% | −6.4% | 264,452 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 716 @ $2.04 | $1K | −0.9% of holding | +1.3% | −6.4% | 76,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 22,639 @ $1.90 | $43K | −3.0% of holding | +13.5% | −3.9% | 741,287 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 6,069 @ $1.90 | $12K | −2.2% of holding | +13.5% | −3.9% | 265,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 3,360 @ $1.96 | $7K | −4.2% of holding | +15.1% | −9.4% | 77,428 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 3,119 @ $1.96 | $6K | −2.6% of holding | +15.1% | −9.4% | 115,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Boniface John J. | officer | Sale | 3,038 @ $1.96 | $6K | −2.0% of holding | +15.1% | −9.4% | 147,359 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Kearney Paul | officer | Sale | 2,026 @ $1.96 | $4K | −1.2% of holding | +15.1% | −9.4% | 165,357 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 674 @ $1.96 | $1K | −0.2% of holding | +15.1% | −9.4% | 271,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Lawrence Sandra AJ | director | Sale | 1,560 @ $1.95 | $3K | −8.0% of holding | +12.5% | −11.6% | 18,033 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $2.34 | $5K | −2.4% of holding | −7.4% | −15.1% | 80,788 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $2.97 | $6K | −2.4% of holding | −22.8% | −37.1% | 82,788 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-30 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $3.00 | $6K | −2.3% of holding | −5.5% | −40.0% | 84,788 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 4,155 @ $3.31 | $14K | −0.5% of holding | +4.5% | −53.5% | 763,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Boniface John J. | officer | Sale | 1,332 @ $3.31 | $4K | −0.9% of holding | +4.5% | −53.5% | 150,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Kearney Paul | officer | Sale | 1,213 @ $3.31 | $4K | −0.7% of holding | +4.5% | −53.5% | 167,383 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 892 @ $3.31 | $3K | −0.7% of holding | +4.5% | −53.5% | 118,866 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 873 @ $3.31 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +4.5% | −53.5% | 272,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 616 @ $3.31 | $2K | −0.7% of holding | +4.5% | −53.5% | 86,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 28,215 @ $3.04 | $86K | −3.5% of holding | +18.3% | −45.8% | 768,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 5,232 @ $3.04 | $16K | −1.9% of holding | +18.3% | −45.8% | 273,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Lawrence Sandra AJ | director | Sale | 1,560 @ $3.05 | $5K | −7.4% of holding | +14.6% | −41.1% | 19,593 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Mirza Mansoor Raza | director | Sale | 292 @ $3.05 | $891 | −0.5% of holding | +6.3% | −38.9% | 57,740 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Kearney Paul | officer | Sale | 32,203 @ $2.94 | $95K | −16.0% of holding | +2.9% | −34.1% | 168,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $2.93 | $6K | −2.2% of holding | +2.9% | −34.1% | 87,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Kearney Paul | officer | Sale | 1,986 @ $3.51 | $7K | −1.2% of holding | −3.0% | −46.3% | 168,596 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 11,594 @ $2.62 | $30K | −1.4% of holding | +32.4% | −47.2% | 796,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Boniface John J. | officer | Sale | 7,767 @ $2.62 | $20K | −4.9% of holding | +32.4% | −47.2% | 151,726 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Kearney Paul | officer | Sale | 7,073 @ $2.62 | $19K | −4.0% of holding | +32.4% | −47.2% | 168,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 7,059 @ $2.62 | $18K | −5.6% of holding | +32.4% | −47.2% | 119,758 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 6,528 @ $2.62 | $17K | −6.8% of holding | +32.4% | −47.2% | 89,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 6,351 @ $2.62 | $17K | −2.2% of holding | +32.4% | −47.2% | 278,319 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Mirza Mansoor Raza | director | Sale | 221 @ $3.04 | $672 | −0.4% of holding | −1.5% | −48.6% | 58,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $3.07 | $6K | −2.0% of holding | −2.7% | −45.4% | 95,932 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-07 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $3.18 | $6K | −2.0% of holding | −6.2% | −37.9% | 97,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Mirza Mansoor Raza | director | Sale | 227 @ $3.16 | $717 | −0.4% of holding | −7.9% | −33.1% | 58,253 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-11 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 3,246 @ $3.13 | $10K | −0.4% of holding | +0.1% | −31.9% | 807,890 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Boniface John J. | officer | Sale | 1,395 @ $3.13 | $4K | −0.9% of holding | +0.1% | −31.9% | 159,493 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Kearney Paul | officer | Sale | 1,271 @ $3.13 | $4K | −0.7% of holding | +0.1% | −31.9% | 175,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 934 @ $3.13 | $3K | −0.7% of holding | +0.1% | −31.9% | 126,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Aerts Austin | officer | Sale | 915 @ $3.13 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +0.1% | −31.9% | 284,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Harrison Robert Gardner | officer | Sale | 645 @ $3.13 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | +0.1% | −31.9% | 99,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Sale | 21,158 @ $3.15 | $67K | −2.5% of holding | −2.2% | −42.3% | 811,136 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
84 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Gleason Scott | officer | Award / grant | 169,624 | 169,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gleason Scott | officer | Award / grant | 117,924 | 117,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | CRITCHFIELD GREGORY C | director | Award / grant | 34,494 | 34,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | CRITCHFIELD GREGORY C | director | Award / grant | 2,452 | 2,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Capone Mark Christopher | director | Award / grant | 42,404 | 42,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Capone Mark Christopher | director | Award / grant | 62,766 | 62,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Capone Mark Christopher | director | Award / grant | 3,037 | 3,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kamdar Kim P. | director | Award / grant | 22,426 | 54,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kamdar Kim P. | director | Award / grant | 3,421 | 58,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kamdar Kim P. | director | Award / grant | 34,494 | 34,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kamdar Kim P. | director | Award / grant | 5,263 | 5,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Lawrence Sandra AJ | director | Award / grant | 22,426 | 38,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Lawrence Sandra AJ | director | Award / grant | 2,276 | 41,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Lawrence Sandra AJ | director | Award / grant | 34,494 | 34,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Lawrence Sandra AJ | director | Award / grant | 3,501 | 3,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mirza Mansoor Raza | director | Award / grant | 22,426 | 80,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mirza Mansoor Raza | director | Award / grant | 1,771 | 81,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mirza Mansoor Raza | director | Award / grant | 34,494 | 34,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mirza Mansoor Raza | director | Award / grant | 2,725 | 2,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Phillips Joshua | director | Award / grant | 22,426 | 79,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Phillips Joshua | director | Award / grant | 2,260 | 81,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Phillips Joshua | director | Award / grant | 34,494 | 34,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Phillips Joshua | director | Award / grant | 3,477 | 3,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Capone Mark Christopher | director | Award / grant | 1,975 | 44,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Barlow Jane F | director | Award / grant | 22,426 | 45,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Barlow Jane F | director | Award / grant | 1,949 | 47,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Barlow Jane F | director | Award / grant | 34,494 | 34,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Barlow Jane F | director | Award / grant | 2,998 | 2,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | CRITCHFIELD GREGORY C | director | Award / grant | 22,426 | 845,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | CRITCHFIELD GREGORY C | director | Award / grant | 1,594 | 846,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 163,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 3,168 | 82,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Award / grant | 44,215 | 158,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 12,455 | 79,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 19,310 | 19,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Aerts Austin | officer | Award / grant | 44,215 | 308,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Aerts Austin | officer | Award / grant | 68,550 | 68,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Award / grant | 154,440 | 892,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Lindgardt Zhenya | director | Award / grant | 239,442 | 239,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Inglis Tiffany Eul Davis | officer | Award / grant | 17,437 | 92,437 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.