Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.44 · now $38.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SEPN has typically landed between $29.00 and $55.95 — a range of −24.6% to +45.6% from the issuance price $38.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
452 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-10-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SEPN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.7 (+5.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.64–$46.77
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29–$55.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 452 windows spanning 2024-10-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-01-24 | −70.1% | −70.1% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-22 | −70.1% | −71.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-23 | −68.8% | −69.8% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-17 | +69.0% | −0.5% | +72.2% |
| 2025-09-12 | +68.7% | +0.0% | +68.7% |
| 2025-04-14 | +67.4% | −3.3% | +67.4% |
452 overlapping windows · 2024-10-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−21.2%
n=2
Feb
50%
−18.7%
n=2
Mar
0%
−13.9%
n=2
Apr
50%
+9.5%
n=2
May
100%
+30.0%
n=2
Jun
100%
+12.6%
n=2
Jul
100%
+10.1%
n=2
Aug
50%
+4.1%
n=2
Sep
100%
+28.1%
n=2
Oct
100%
+9.5%
n=1
Nov
100%
+25.7%
n=2
Dec
0%
−6.7%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Sale | 3,333 @ $37.83 | $126K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 746,500 @ $42.50 | $31.7M | −50.7% of holding | −19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 725,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 746,500 @ $42.50 | $31.7M | −13.5% of holding | −19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,777,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Third Rock Ventures V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 147,059 @ $50.27 | $7.4M | +2.5% of holding | −19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,068,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Third Rock Ventures V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 141 @ $51.08 | $7K | +0.0% of holding | −19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,068,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $44.00 | $1.1M | −12.5% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Sale | 2,334 @ $34.68 | $81K | −2.4% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $33.98 | $34K | −1.0% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $33.99 | $136K | −2.2% of holding | +29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $34.10 | $72K | −2.1% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Sale | 1,233 @ $34.81 | $43K | −1.3% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Sale | 2,178 @ $35.18 | $77K | −73.3% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $35.10 | $281K | −7.2% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $35.97 | $252K | −6.8% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Sale | 6,250 @ $35.08 | $219K | −88.7% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 793 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Sale | 2,889 @ $29.66 | $86K | −78.5% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $27.78 | $47K | −25.3% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Sale | 1,346 @ $28.79 | $39K | −26.8% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Sale | 11,798 @ $30.06 | $355K | −93.7% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 2,573 @ $23.76 | $61K | −1.4% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,101 @ $25.24 | $28K | −0.6% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,535 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 326 @ $25.86 | $8K | −0.2% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Sale | 66,363 @ $28.14 | $1.9M | −98.8% of holding | −11.1% | +20.9% | 793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Sale | 4,090 @ $27.51 | $112K | −5.7% of holding | −11.1% | +20.9% | 67,156 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $28.46 | $63K | −1.2% of holding | −10.3% | +42.6% | 176,009 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $29.58 | $53K | −1.0% of holding | −10.3% | +42.6% | 174,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Sale | 3,501 @ $18.06 | $63K | −3.6% of holding | +40.8% | +27.2% | 92,911 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Ezekowitz Alan | director | Purchase | 13,319 @ $6.93 | $92K | +12.8% of holding | −4.2% | +114.8% | 117,420 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Ezekowitz Alan | director | Purchase | 41,355 @ $6.00 | $248K | +65.9% of holding | −2.3% | +113.2% | 104,101 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | Ezekowitz Alan | director | Purchase | 37,835 @ $5.82 | $220K | +151.9% of holding | +5.5% | +126.1% | 62,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Ezekowitz Alan | director | Purchase | 7,491 @ $6.35 | $48K | +43.0% of holding | −9.0% | +116.3% | 24,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Labrucherie Gil M | director | Purchase | 3,718 @ $5.85 | $22K | +10.2% of holding | +9.9% | +100.1% | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-27 | Finer Jeffrey | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $5.80 | $17K | +0.4% of holding | +9.9% | +100.1% | 771,907 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-26 | Finer Jeffrey | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.70 | $23K | +0.5% of holding | +14.7% | +112.2% | 768,907 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Finer Jeffrey | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.68 | $57K | +1.3% of holding | +15.3% | +120.9% | 764,907 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Labrucherie Gil M | director | Purchase | 6,282 @ $5.59 | $35K | +20.9% of holding | +15.3% | +120.9% | 36,282 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Third Rock Ventures VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 18,861 @ $6.00 | $113K | +0.4% of holding | +9.8% | +100.5% | 4,211,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Third Rock Ventures VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 427,668 @ $5.94 | $2.5M | +11.4% of holding | +13.9% | +98.5% | 4,192,798 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Labrucherie Gil M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.85 | $29K | +20.0% of holding | +13.9% | +98.5% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-20 | Third Rock Ventures VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 612,674 @ $5.92 | $3.6M | +19.4% of holding | +7.8% | +93.9% | 3,765,130 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Labrucherie Gil M | director | Purchase | 14,500 @ $5.88 | $85K | +138.1% of holding | +7.8% | +93.9% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Labrucherie Gil M | director | Purchase | 10,500 @ $5.51 | $58K | ownership Δ n/a | +18.6% | +95.1% | 10,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Patni Rajiv | director | Award / grant | 275,000 | 275,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 99,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 9,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 18,681 | 192,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 6,319 | 199,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 18,681 | 62,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 6,319 | 82,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 1,816 | 98,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 1,518 | 99,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 1,518 | 12,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 1,816 | 5,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 178,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 80,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 99,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 7,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 2,178 | 2,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 2,178 | 20,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Coulie Bernard | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Ezekowitz Alan | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Gottesdiener Keith Michael | director | Award / grant | 11,260 | 11,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Simson Jake | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Tong Jeffrey K | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Sharp Shalini | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bassan Abraham | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 4,471 | 111,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 10,529 | 106,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 10,529 | 10,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Long Daniel D. | officer | Option exercise | 4,471 | 25,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 6,250 | 7,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 6,250 | 23,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 4,355 | 5,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 943 | 6,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 637 | 6,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 637 | 4,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 4,355 | 11,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 943 | 2,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 11,798 | 12,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Shaikhly Samira | officer | Option exercise | 11,798 | 23,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Bhatt Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 178,209 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.