Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.59 · now $24.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SEG has typically landed between $20.81 and $29.44 — a range of −15.4% to +19.7% from the issuance price $24.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
503 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-07-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SEG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.66 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.07–$26.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.81–$29.44
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-18 | −28.0% | −28.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-13 | −23.9% | −23.9% | +4.2% |
| 2025-02-19 | −21.5% | −22.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-08-15 | +27.1% | −1.2% | +36.3% |
| 2024-08-16 | +27.0% | +0.0% | +37.9% |
| 2024-08-20 | +26.9% | +0.0% | +27.4% |
503 overlapping windows · 2024-07-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Digilio Monica S | director | Award / grant | 987 | 9,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Crawford Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 987 | 9,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Hirsh David Z. | director | Award / grant | 987 | 9,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | PARTRIDGE MATTHEW MORRIS | director | Withheld for tax | 4,544 | 111,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Sachs Rebecca E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,010 | 22,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Elaiwat Lenah | officer | Withheld for tax | 741 | 30,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Digilio Monica S | director | Award / grant | 1,014 | 8,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hirsh David Z. | director | Award / grant | 1,014 | 8,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Crawford Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 1,014 | 8,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 90,875 | 4,932,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 90,875 | 90,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | PARTRIDGE MATTHEW MORRIS | director | Withheld for tax | 4,918 | 115,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Hirsh David Z. | director | Award / grant | 1,175 | 7,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Digilio Monica S | director | Award / grant | 1,175 | 7,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Crawford Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 1,175 | 7,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | PARTRIDGE MATTHEW MORRIS | director | Withheld for tax | 2,726 | 120,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fato Luciana | officer | Withheld for tax | 728 | 19,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Sachs Rebecca E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 684 | 23,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Sachs Rebecca E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 987 | 24,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Elaiwat Lenah | officer | Withheld for tax | 914 | 31,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Elaiwat Lenah | officer | Award / grant | 9,766 | 32,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Fato Luciana | officer | Award / grant | 8,127 | 19,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Sachs Rebecca E. | officer | Award / grant | 7,858 | 25,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | PARTRIDGE MATTHEW MORRIS | director | Award / grant | 27,625 | 123,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | PARTRIDGE MATTHEW MORRIS | director | Award / grant | 55,148 | 55,148 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Hirsh David Z. | director | Award / grant | 1,146 | 6,043 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Crawford Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 1,146 | 6,043 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Digilio Monica S | director | Award / grant | 1,146 | 6,043 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | Elaiwat Lenah | officer | Award / grant | 9,265 | 22,602 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | PARTRIDGE MATTHEW MORRIS | director | Award / grant | 13,555 | 95,634 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | PARTRIDGE MATTHEW MORRIS | director | Award / grant | 22,189 | 22,189 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Digilio Monica S | director | Award / grant | 998 | 4,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Hirsh David Z. | director | Award / grant | 998 | 4,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Crawford Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 998 | 4,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | PARTRIDGE MATTHEW MORRIS | director | Withheld for tax | 5,429 | 82,079 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Elaiwat Lenah | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,152 | 13,337 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Fato Luciana | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,073 | 11,813 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Crawford Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 1,279 | 3,899 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Digilio Monica S | director | Award / grant | 1,279 | 3,899 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Hirsh David Z. | director | Award / grant | 1,279 | 3,899 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.