SEATVivid Seats Inc.Communication Services · Internet Content & Informationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.28 · now $4.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SEAT has typically landed between $3.02 and $5.47 — a range of −29.3% to +27.7% from the issuance price $4.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,468 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SEAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.02worst · -29.3%$5.47best · +27.7%
  • now $4.28 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.07 (-4.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.67–$4.47
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.02–$5.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,468 windows spanning 2020-10-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-07-23−58.0%−58.0%+0.0%
2025-07-22−57.4%−57.4%+0.0%
2025-07-10−54.7%−54.7%+1.6%
3 best
2023-11-01+45.9%+0.0%+48.7%
2023-10-30+45.1%−2.4%+45.1%
2022-01-28+45.1%+0.0%+45.1%

1,468 overlapping windows · 2020-10-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.8%
n=6
Feb
33%
+0.3%
n=6
Mar
0%
−6.7%
n=6
Apr
33%
−3.3%
n=6
May
50%
−4.1%
n=6
Jun
50%
−2.2%
n=6
Jul
50%
+1.9%
n=6
Aug
17%
−14.5%
n=6
Sep
17%
−11.7%
n=6
Oct
60%
+4.6%
n=5
Nov
33%
−3.8%
n=6
Dec
17%
−2.6%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$18$42026-09-14: 1 insider sale, $311 — Arnett Austin2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $79 — Arnett Austin2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $518 — Arnett Austin2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $85 — Arnett Austin2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $1K — Arnett Austin2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $82 — Arnett Austin2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $166 — Arnett Austin2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $2K — Tabak Emily N2025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $667 — Tabak Emily N2025-10-20: 2 insider sales, $1K — Bakal Riva, Pickus Edward2025-08-13: 2 insider sales, $5K — Tabak Emily N …2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $5K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $1K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $3K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $1662026-02: 1 open-market sale, $822026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $852026-06: 1 open-market sale, $5182026-08: 1 open-market sale, $792026-09: 1 open-market sale, $311↑ buys↓ salesofficer Arnett Austin — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Arnett Austin — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Arnett Austin — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Arnett Austin — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Arnett Austin — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Arnett Austin — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Arnett Austin — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Tabak Emily N — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed same dayofficer Tabak Emily N — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bakal Riva — Sale on 2025-10-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pickus Edward — Sale on 2025-10-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Tabak Emily N — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Tabak Emily N — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Arnett AustinofficerSale64 @ $4.86$311−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,117Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13Arnett AustinofficerSale11 @ $7.22$79−0.2% of holding−32.5%not yet — horizon still open4,885Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12Arnett AustinofficerSale62 @ $8.36$518−1.3% of holding−2.3%not yet — horizon still open4,865Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-13Arnett AustinofficerSale10 @ $8.53$85−0.4% of holding−16.4%not yet — horizon still open2,699Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Arnett AustinofficerSale247 @ $5.08$1K−8.4% of holding+13.5%−27.7%2,679Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13Arnett AustinofficerSale12 @ $6.83$82−2.4% of holding−2.3%−8.8%487Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Arnett AustinofficerSale22 @ $7.56$166−4.5% of holding−17.0%−13.0%469Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-14Tabak Emily NofficerSale298 @ $8.33$2K−2.7% of holding−14.9%−6.7%10,617Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13Tabak Emily NofficerSale71 @ $9.39$667−0.6% of holding−27.6%−10.3%10,915Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-20Bakal RivaofficerSale87 @ $11.03$960−0.4% of holding−30.0%−46.5%20,645Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-20Pickus EdwardofficerSale28 @ $11.03$309−0.5% of holding−30.0%−46.5%5,816Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Tabak Emily NofficerSale239 @ $17.21$4K−2.6% of holding−8.3%−68.8%9,092Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Tabak Emily NofficerSale68 @ $17.47$1K−0.7% of holding−8.3%−68.8%9,331Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

287 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Langenbacher StefanoofficerWithheld for tax19,26291,985Form 4
2026-09-11Thomas Joseph D. Jr.officerWithheld for tax6,94737,778Form 4
2026-09-11Pickus EdwardofficerWithheld for tax4,17028,622Form 4
2026-09-11Arnett AustinofficerWithheld for tax1,2477,181Form 4
2026-09-11Fey LawrencedirectorOption exercise4,0388,076Form 4
2026-09-11Arnett AustinofficerOption exercise68136Form 4
2026-09-11Arnett AustinofficerOption exercise3,34516,724Form 4
2026-09-11Langenbacher StefanoofficerOption exercise4,44826,692Form 4
2026-09-11Arnett AustinofficerOption exercise130780Form 4
2026-09-11Langenbacher StefanoofficerOption exercise38,226191,132Form 4
2026-09-11Thomas Joseph D. Jr.officerOption exercise19,11395,566Form 4
2026-09-11Pickus EdwardofficerOption exercise8,60143,005Form 4
2026-09-11Pickus EdwardofficerOption exercise1,4838,898Form 4
2026-09-11Pickus EdwardofficerOption exercise8081,616Form 4
2026-09-11Langenbacher StefanoofficerOption exercise1,8173,634Form 4
2026-09-11Fey LawrencedirectorOption exercise76,452382,263Form 4
2026-09-11Fey LawrencedirectorOption exercise7,41444,485Form 4
2026-09-11Arnett AustinofficerOption exercise3,5438,428Form 4
2026-09-11Langenbacher StefanoofficerOption exercise44,491111,247Form 4
2026-09-11Fey LawrencedirectorOption exercise87,904364,945Form 4
2026-09-11Thomas Joseph D. Jr.officerOption exercise19,11344,725Form 4
2026-09-11Thomas Joseph D. Jr.officerOption exercise19,11344,725Form 4
2026-09-11Langenbacher StefanoofficerOption exercise44,491111,247Form 4
2026-09-11Fey LawrencedirectorOption exercise87,904364,945Form 4
2026-09-11Arnett AustinofficerOption exercise3,5438,428Form 4
2026-09-11Pickus EdwardofficerOption exercise10,89232,792Form 4
2026-09-11Langenbacher StefanoofficerOption exercise44,491111,247Form 4
2026-09-11Fey LawrencedirectorOption exercise87,904364,945Form 4
2026-09-11Pickus EdwardofficerOption exercise10,89232,792Form 4
2026-09-11Arnett AustinofficerOption exercise3,5438,428Form 4
2026-09-11Pickus EdwardofficerOption exercise10,89232,792Form 4
2026-09-11Langenbacher StefanoofficerOption exercise44,491111,247Form 4
2026-09-11Arnett AustinofficerOption exercise3,5438,428Form 4
2026-09-11Thomas Joseph D. Jr.officerOption exercise19,11344,725Form 4
2026-09-11Fey LawrencedirectorOption exercise87,904364,945Form 4
2026-09-11Thomas Joseph D. Jr.officerOption exercise19,11344,725Form 4
2026-08-12Langenbacher StefanoofficerWithheld for tax22166,756Form 4
2026-08-12Langenbacher StefanoofficerOption exercise5922,962Form 4
2026-08-12Arnett AustinofficerOption exercise310Form 4
2026-08-12Fey LawrencedirectorOption exercise1,8545,564Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.