Issued 2026-09-16 at $103.50 · now $103.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SE has typically landed between $73.92 and $131.34 — a range of −28.6% to +26.9% from the issuance price $103.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,204 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-10-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($103.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $103.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $103.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $103.07 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $90.5–$115.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $73.92–$131.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,204 windows spanning 2017-10-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −49.9% | −49.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-09 | −47.7% | −48.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-10 | −46.7% | −46.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-01-30 | +71.1% | +0.0% | +71.1% |
| 2019-01-31 | +64.2% | +0.0% | +65.6% |
| 2020-05-15 | +62.7% | +0.0% | +62.7% |
2,204 overlapping windows · 2017-10-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+3.2%
n=9
Feb
44%
+7.8%
n=9
Mar
56%
+1.7%
n=9
Apr
67%
+1.9%
n=9
May
78%
+11.9%
n=9
Jun
78%
+6.0%
n=9
Jul
67%
+4.7%
n=9
Aug
67%
+2.7%
n=9
Sep
33%
+0.3%
n=9
Oct
25%
−3.6%
n=8
Nov
56%
+1.8%
n=9
Dec
44%
−2.0%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 10,800 @ $108.50 | $1.2M | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 188,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 7,900 @ $108.53 | $857K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 683,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 5,600 @ $109.19 | $611K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 183,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 4,700 @ $106.25 | $499K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 201,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 3,700 @ $105.27 | $389K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 206,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 3,300 @ $109.30 | $361K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 680,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $109.97 | $330K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $106.28 | $298K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 693,292 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $105.32 | $284K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 696,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $107.38 | $236K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 199,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $109.98 | $198K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 678,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $107.34 | $161K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 691,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 450 @ $110.00 | $50K | −9.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 372 @ $108.42 | $40K | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 234 @ $109.10 | $26K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,830 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 204 @ $106.20 | $22K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 144 @ $105.20 | $15K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 96 @ $107.28 | $10K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,436 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 14,833 @ $106.95 | $1.6M | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 225,167 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 13,447 @ $107.97 | $1.5M | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 211,720 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 9,855 @ $106.92 | $1.1M | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 708,937 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 8,945 @ $107.95 | $966K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 699,992 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 1,720 @ $108.75 | $187K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 210,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $108.72 | $130K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 698,792 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 660 @ $106.96 | $71K | −9.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,420 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 475 @ $107.96 | $51K | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,945 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 65 @ $108.75 | $7K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,880 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 22,394 @ $107.90 | $2.4M | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 247,606 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 16,099 @ $107.92 | $1.7M | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 722,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 7,606 @ $108.50 | $825K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 240,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 3,901 @ $108.54 | $423K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 718,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 945 @ $107.85 | $102K | −11.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 255 @ $108.50 | $28K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 18,299 @ $108.41 | $2.0M | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 281,701 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $108.41 | $1.3M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 746,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 9,001 @ $109.23 | $983K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 272,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 6,300 @ $109.21 | $688K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 740,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $110.59 | $221K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 270,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $110.57 | $133K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 739,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 795 @ $108.41 | $86K | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Chen Jingye | officer | Sale | 700 @ $111.42 | $78K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 270,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 500 @ $111.39 | $56K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 738,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 405 @ $109.23 | $44K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 84 @ $110.56 | $9K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,316 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 36 @ $111.36 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,280 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 8,763 @ $113.49 | $995K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 758,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 6,495 @ $112.80 | $733K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 767,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 2,722 @ $110.72 | $301K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 776,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 2,020 @ $111.87 | $226K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 774,050 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 612 @ $113.01 | $69K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 464 @ $113.61 | $53K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 217 @ $110.83 | $24K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 207 @ $112.08 | $23K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 12,129 @ $113.52 | $1.4M | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 780,182 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 6,481 @ $112.66 | $730K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 792,311 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 1,390 @ $114.34 | $159K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 778,792 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 898 @ $113.51 | $102K | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,215 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 487 @ $112.64 | $55K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,113 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Wang Yanjun | officer | Sale | 115 @ $114.35 | $13K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ye Gang | director | Sale | 10,104 @ $113.15 | $1.1M | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 226,388 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-01-14 | 2025-12-05 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2025-06-11 | 2025-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-04-09 | 2025-03-11 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-03-27 | 2025-03-05 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Goldman | House | sale | 2023-08-13 | 2023-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Goldman | House | purchase | 2023-04-17 | 2023-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Kurt Schrader | House | purchase | 2021-06-04 | 2021-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Kurt Schrader | House | sale | 2021-05-12 | 2021-04-23 | $500K–1M |
| Jacky Rosen | Senate | exchange | 2017-04-19 | 2017-02-28 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2016-12-06 | 2016-11-18 | $15–50K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2016-12-06 | 2016-11-18 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.