SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.33 · now $10.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SDHC has typically landed between $8.19 and $12.71 — a range of −20.7% to +23.0% from the issuance price $10.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

651 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-01-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SDHC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.19worst · -20.7%$12.71best · +23.0%
  • now $10.33 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.04 (-2.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.04–$11.04
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.19–$12.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 651 windows spanning 2024-01-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-10−40.0%−40.0%+0.0%
2026-02-18−35.3%−36.4%+0.0%
2026-02-19−33.5%−33.5%+0.0%
3 best
2024-07-02+50.0%−2.8%+53.3%
2024-07-03+47.7%+0.0%+57.7%
2024-07-09+44.3%+0.0%+55.2%

651 overlapping windows · 2024-01-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.1%
n=2
Feb
33%
−4.5%
n=3
Mar
33%
−7.8%
n=3
Apr
33%
+2.8%
n=3
May
0%
−10.1%
n=3
Jun
67%
+8.0%
n=3
Jul
33%
+11.0%
n=3
Aug
67%
−1.0%
n=3
Sep
33%
−7.1%
n=3
Oct
0%
−6.7%
n=2
Nov
100%
+6.5%
n=2
Dec
0%
−18.8%
n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$22$102026-09-10: 1 insider purchase, $200K — Bradbury Thomas L2026-09-02: 1 insider purchase, $12K — Bennett Gregory S2026-09-01: 1 insider purchase, $12K — Bennett Gregory S2026-08-25: 1 insider purchase, $12K — Devendorf Russell2026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $13K — Devendorf Russell2026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $22K — Devendorf Russell2026-03-13: 4 insider purchases, $525K — Bradbury Thomas L, Perdue George Ervin III, Devendorf Russell, Wedewer Neil B2026-03: 4 open-market purchases, $525K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $22K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $25K2026-09: 3 open-market purchases, $223K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Bradbury Thomas L — Purchase on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Bennett Gregory S — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bennett Gregory S — Purchase on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Devendorf Russell — Purchase on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Devendorf Russell — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Devendorf Russell — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bradbury Thomas L — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Perdue George Ervin III — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Devendorf Russell — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Wedewer Neil B — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Bradbury Thomas LdirectorPurchase19,360 @ $10.31$200K+32.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open78,278Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-02Bennett Gregory SdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $11.50$12K+0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open219,526Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01Bennett Gregory SdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $12.20$12K+0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open218,526Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-25Devendorf RussellofficerPurchase1,000 @ $12.34$12K+0.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open317,461Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20Devendorf RussellofficerPurchase1,000 @ $12.68$13K+0.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open316,461Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-20Devendorf RussellofficerPurchase2,000 @ $10.88$22K+0.6% of holding+15.8%not yet — horizon still open315,461Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13Bradbury Thomas LdirectorPurchase22,618 @ $11.36$257K+62.3% of holding+3.7%−30.2%58,918Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorPurchase20,300 @ $12.27$249K+50.3% of holding+3.7%−30.2%60,684Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13Devendorf RussellofficerPurchase1,000 @ $11.56$12K+0.3% of holding+3.7%−30.2%286,928Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13Wedewer Neil BdirectorPurchase700 @ $11.38$8K+5.0% of holding+3.7%−30.2%14,748Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorPurchase1,400 @ $18.25$26K+3.6% of holding+6.8%+10.2%40,384Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-12Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorPurchase500 @ $19.40$10K+1.3% of holding−5.2%−2.2%38,984Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-11Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorPurchase3,500 @ $19.74$69K+10.0% of holding+3.0%−5.8%38,484Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-10Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorPurchase1,684 @ $20.17$34K+5.1% of holding−0.5%−14.9%34,984Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-04Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorPurchase2,412 @ $18.83$45K+9.9% of holding−0.7%−2.3%26,757Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-03Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $19.09$191K+69.7% of holding+0.3%−6.0%24,345Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorPurchase6,840 @ $18.34$125K+91.1% of holding+2.8%−10.8%14,345Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23Faucett Neill BdirectorPurchase7,000 @ $17.36$122K+93.3% of holding−0.6%−13.5%14,505Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-21Devendorf RussellofficerPurchase3,000 @ $16.80$50K+1.0% of holding+7.4%−16.0%299,952Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-16Bradbury Thomas LdirectorPurchase28,500 @ $19.47$555K+365.4% of holding−11.0%−24.4%36,300Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Bradbury Thomas LdirectorPurchase7,800 @ $18.78$146Kownership Δ n/a−11.0%−24.4%7,800Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Jackson Jeffrey TdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $18.49$111K+30.5% of holding−11.0%−24.4%25,682Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Jackson Jeffrey TdirectorAward / grant2,01546,429Form 4
2026-07-01Faucett Neill BdirectorAward / grant1,61234,413Form 4
2026-06-04Wedewer Neil BdirectorAward / grant10,00824,756Form 4
2026-06-04Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorAward / grant10,00870,692Form 4
2026-06-04Jackson Jeffrey TdirectorAward / grant10,00844,414Form 4
2026-06-04WALKER JANICE E.directorAward / grant10,00824,056Form 4
2026-06-04Bradbury JuliedirectorAward / grant10,00827,628Form 4
2026-06-04Faucett Neill BdirectorAward / grant10,00832,801Form 4
2026-04-08Jackson Jeffrey TdirectorAward / grant2,18134,406Form 4
2026-04-08Faucett Neill BdirectorAward / grant1,74522,793Form 4
2026-03-20Bennett Gregory SdirectorWithheld for tax13,231217,526Form 4
2026-03-20Devendorf RussellofficerWithheld for tax3,182313,461Form 4
2026-03-20Steele Brett AllenofficerWithheld for tax1,43033,597Form 4
2026-03-13Devendorf RussellofficerAward / grant29,715316,643Form 4
2026-03-13Bennett Gregory SdirectorAward / grant133,717230,757Form 4
2026-03-13Steele Brett AllenofficerAward / grant10,81735,027Form 4
2026-01-16Devendorf RussellofficerWithheld for tax14,024285,928Form 4
2025-06-05Wedewer Neil BdirectorAward / grant6,54314,048Form 4
2025-06-05Jackson Jeffrey TdirectorAward / grant6,54332,225Form 4
2025-06-05Bradbury JuliedirectorAward / grant6,54317,620Form 4
2025-06-05Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorAward / grant6,54333,300Form 4
2025-06-05Faucett Neill BdirectorAward / grant6,54321,048Form 4
2025-06-05WALKER JANICE E.directorAward / grant6,54314,048Form 4
2025-03-20Devendorf RussellofficerAward / grant24,260296,952Form 4
2025-03-20Steele Brett AllenofficerAward / grant14,55624,210Form 4
2025-03-20Bennett Gregory SdirectorAward / grant97,04097,040Form 4
2025-01-16Devendorf RussellofficerWithheld for tax13,022272,692Form 4
2025-01-16Steele Brett AllenofficerWithheld for tax2,4899,654Form 4
2024-06-04Perdue George Ervin IIIdirectorAward / grant3,9347,505Form 4
2024-06-04Faucett Neill BdirectorAward / grant3,9347,505Form 4
2024-06-04Jackson Jeffrey TdirectorAward / grant3,93419,682Form 4
2024-06-04Bradbury JuliedirectorAward / grant3,93411,077Form 4
2024-06-04Wedewer Neil BdirectorAward / grant3,9347,505Form 4
2024-06-04WALKER JANICE E.directorAward / grant3,9347,505Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.